First Trump / Harris Debate prop bets
1.4k
170kṀ2.8m
resolved Sep 18
Resolved
NO
Harris says "unburdened"
Resolved
NO
Harris says "unburdened by what has been"
Resolved
NO
Trump says Laughing Kamala
Resolved
NO
Harris mentions Trump's age
Resolved
NO
Trump says "unburdened"
Resolved
50%
Trump says "Kamala" more than "Harris" (tie resolves 50%)
Resolved
NO
Polling after suggests Trump won (538, 50% if tie)
Resolved
NO
Coconuts mentioned
Resolved
NO
Debate has a live audience
Resolved
NO
Harris mentions her history/work of prosecuting sexual offenders
Resolved
YES
Trump interrupts or talks over Kamala during her time to speak
Resolved
YES
Kamala interrupts or talks over Trump during his time to speak
Resolved
NO
Moderators mute Trump's mic once while he's talking
Resolved
NO
Moderators mute Kamala's mic once while she's talking
Resolved
NO
Trump says bitcoin
Resolved
NO
Harris is the first to bring up abortion (including moderators)
Resolved
YES
Harris says "the context"
Resolved
NO
Someone says "racist"
Resolved
NO
Someone says "misogynist"
Resolved
NO
Trump says "green new deal"

options resolve n/a if debate doesn't happen

i'll try to put together a default 'what does it mean to say a word' edge case rule.

Submitters do not judge options, and submitter comment clarifications about meaning are not binding (because in past markets where they were, nobody saw the clarifications and it caused a lot of drama). Submitters should clarify within the option text itself.

Many of the submitted options are somwhat ambiguous. As this is a "fun" market, I'm choosing to leave them up and resolve them in the most reasonable way possible, but it's inevitable there will be some disagreement on some of them.

current specific rules about what it means to say something, which might change slightly: https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/first-trumpharris-debate-prop-bets#3lij3suv1uk

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