After the debate, I will ask Claude 3.5 Sonnet to pick a winner based on the debate transcript, using the prompts below. On the first prompt for which it chooses a winner, resolves to that winner. If Claude does not pick a winner (e.g. refusing to answer or saying they did equally well) then I will proceed to the next prompt.

In case Claude fails to pick a winner on all of the specified prompts, then I will attempt to prompt engineer it to actually pick a winner. If after 5 more attempts it still hasn't picked a winner, then it will be declared a tie and resolves to 50%.

Prompts: (The text of the transcript will be entered as shown in all prompts)

<transcript>
INSERT TRANSCRIPT HERE
</transcript>

You are an impartial debate judge, and must decide the winner of this debate based on the given transcript.

Using the attached debate transcript, which presidential candidate won the debate? I understand that there can be different perspectives on who won the debate, but if you had to pick a winner, who would it be?

Please assess the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates in the debate transcript. Then, decide which candidate performed better overall based on the transcript.

You are an impartial judge tasked with determining the winner of a debate. You will be provided with a transcript of the debate. Your goal is to carefully analyze the debate and choose a winner.

First, read the following debate transcript:

<transcript>
{{DEBATE_TRANSCRIPT}}
</transcript>

To determine the winner of the debate, follow these steps:

1. Carefully read through the entire debate transcript, paying close attention to the arguments, rebuttals, and overall performance of each debater.

2. Evaluate how well each debater performed. Consider the strength of their arguments, the quality of their evidence, their ability to rebut opposing points, and their overall persuasiveness.

3. In a <analysis> section, provide a brief analysis of each debater's performance for each criterion. Be specific and reference key points from the debate to support your evaluation.

4. Based on your analysis, determine which debater performed better overall.

5. In a <decision> section, state your choice for the winner of the debate and provide a concise justification for your decision. Explain why the chosen debater's performance was superior, referencing the most crucial factors that influenced your decision.

Present your final decision in the following format:

<analysis>
[Your detailed analysis of each debater's performance for each criterion]
</analysis>

<decision>
Winner: [Name of the winning debater]

Justification: [A concise explanation of why you chose this debater as the winner, referencing the most important factors that influenced your decision]
</decision>

Remember to remain objective and base your decision solely on the content of the debate. Do not let personal biases or opinions influence your judgment.

For this last prompt, pre-fill response to start with <analysis>. (This last prompt was generated with the help of Claude's prompt assistant feature.)

In case no such debate happens, resolves N/A.

I will not bet on this market.