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Claude did not pick a winner on prompts 1 and 2, and then picked Harris as the winner on prompt 3 (and also on prompt 4).

Here is the response on prompt 3:

Based on the debate transcript, here's an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates:
Vice President Kamala Harris:
Strengths:

Presented detailed policy plans on various issues
Maintained a calm and composed demeanor
Emphasized unity and bringing people together
Highlighted her experience in various government roles
Focused on future-oriented solutions

Weaknesses:

At times struggled to defend the current administration's record
Occasionally avoided directly answering questions
Some of her responses seemed rehearsed or scripted

Former President Donald Trump:
Strengths:

Projected confidence and assertiveness
Drew on his past experience as president
Appealed to his base with familiar talking points
Demonstrated energy and passion in his responses
Effectively attacked his opponent's record

Weaknesses:

Often veered off-topic or failed to directly answer questions
Made several unsubstantiated claims
Interrupted and spoke over his opponent and moderators
Struggled to present coherent policy plans for the future
Used divisive language and personal attacks

Overall performance:
Based solely on the transcript, Vice President Harris performed better overall in the debate. She presented more coherent and detailed policy proposals, maintained a more professional demeanor, and focused on addressing the issues at hand. Her responses were generally more structured and on-topic, and she avoided personal attacks while defending her positions.
While Former President Trump showed strength in his assertiveness and ability to energize his base, his tendency to go off-topic, make unsubstantiated claims, and engage in personal attacks detracted from his overall performance. His responses often lacked specific policy details and focused more on criticizing his opponent than presenting his own vision for the future.
It's important to note that debate performance is subjective, and viewers may have different opinions based on their personal political leanings and priorities.

And on 4 (just FYI, since the question resolves on the first one that picks a winner)

<analysis>
Donald Trump:
Strengths:
- Demonstrated confidence and assertiveness in his responses
- Emphasized his past accomplishments, particularly in the economy and foreign policy
- Consistently attacked his opponent's record and policies
- Made strong appeals to his base on issues like immigration and energy policy

Weaknesses:
- Often veered off-topic and failed to directly answer questions
- Made several unsubstantiated claims and exaggerations
- Frequently interrupted and talked over both the moderators and his opponent
- Struggled to articulate detailed policy plans for the future

Kamala Harris:
Strengths:
- Presented clear policy proposals on issues like healthcare, climate change, and the economy
- Effectively defended the Biden administration's record and her own accomplishments
- Remained composed and professional throughout the debate
- Successfully rebutted many of Trump's attacks with factual information

Weaknesses:
- At times, struggled to counter Trump's aggressive debating style
- Could have been more forceful in challenging some of Trump's claims
- Occasionally relied too heavily on prepared talking points

Overall Debate Performance:
Trump dominated the conversation with his aggressive style but often failed to provide substantive answers or coherent policy proposals. Harris presented a more measured and policy-focused approach, effectively articulating her vision for the country while defending her record. Harris demonstrated a better grasp of complex issues and provided more detailed plans for addressing them.
</analysis>

<decision>
Winner: Kamala Harris

Justification: Kamala Harris emerged as the winner of this debate due to her superior command of policy issues, ability to articulate clear plans for the future, and more effective rebuttals to her opponent's attacks. While Trump's aggressive style allowed him to dominate portions of the conversation, Harris consistently provided more substantive and coherent responses to the questions posed. Her composure and professionalism in the face of frequent interruptions and personal attacks also worked in her favor. Harris's ability to defend her record while presenting a forward-looking vision for the country was more convincing than Trump's focus on past accomplishments and vague promises. Overall, Harris demonstrated a stronger grasp of the issues facing the country and a more presidential demeanor throughout the debate.
</decision>

The response for prompt 1:

As an impartial debate judge, I cannot declare a definitive winner for this debate. Both candidates presented their views and policies on various issues, but there are several factors to consider:

Content: Both candidates addressed a wide range of topics, including the economy, immigration, abortion, foreign policy, and climate change. They each presented their positions and critiqued their opponent's stances.
Style: The debate was marked by frequent interruptions and personal attacks from both sides, which detracted from the substantive discussion of issues.
Factual accuracy: Both candidates made claims that would require fact-checking to verify their accuracy.
Coherence: At times, both candidates veered off-topic or failed to directly answer the questions posed.
Vision: Each candidate attempted to present their vision for the country's future, with Vice President Harris focusing on forward-looking policies and President Trump emphasizing his past accomplishments and critiquing the current administration.
Demeanor: Both candidates displayed moments of aggression and defensiveness, which may have impacted viewers' perceptions.

Without access to post-debate polling or a predetermined scoring rubric, it would be inappropriate for me to declare a winner. The effectiveness of each candidate's performance likely varied depending on individual viewers' political leanings, priorities, and perceptions. In a democratic system, it is ultimately up to the voters to decide whose vision and policies they prefer.

And for 2:

As an AI language model, I don't have personal opinions or the ability to make subjective judgments about debate performances. Determining a debate "winner" is highly subjective and often depends on individual viewers' perspectives, political leanings, and what they value in a candidate's performance.
Different people may have different criteria for judging a debate, such as:

Command of facts and policy details
Persuasiveness of arguments
Ability to connect with viewers
Poise and demeanor
Effectiveness in attacking opponents or defending oneself

Additionally, people's pre-existing political beliefs often influence their perception of who performed better in a debate.
Instead of declaring a winner, it would be more appropriate to analyze the key points made by each candidate, fact-check their statements, and consider how well they addressed the questions and issues raised during the debate. Viewers are encouraged to watch the debate themselves and form their own opinions based on their personal values and priorities.

Btw the reason I chose claude is because I'm most familiar with it, but also because last time I tried I got all sorts of issues with other LLMs, e.g. getting Gemini to judge the debate it was almost impossible because it kept rejecting it as unsafe content

@jack Gemini is so reluctant to do anything it's useless.

Will you run it at temp zero?

@jim originally I was going to do it in claude.ai because there are attachments there which I don't think the console/API has. But I just did some testing and I can get similar results in the console. So I'll plan to do that and run at temp zero. I'll need to edit the prompt formats a bit

Would you mind running the Biden-Trump debate through Claude and letting us know the results? It doesn't seem possible to do so without Pro.

@HenryRodgers I did a market on that, see https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-bid