Resolves to the candidate who gains the most in the prediction markets for the 2024 US Presidential Election, using Election Betting Odds' aggregated market probabilities at https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024.html#chart, during the day after the first debate between Trump and Harris for the 2024 Presidential Election.

Specifically, resolves to the candidate with the highest absolute percentage gain between the start of the debate (scheduled for September 10 9pm ET) and 24 hours later.

So, this question is basically about who the markets assess as outperforming expectations the most, which isn't the same as who performed best in an absolute sense because it's relative to prior expectations.

Details

• The data points used for resolution will be the latest data point before the specified times shown on the graph https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024.html#chart

• In case there's a tie (using the most precise displayed probabilities, currently percentages with one decimal point), resolves to 50%.

• This market resolves based on the first such debate, regardless of reschedulings or cancellations. In case no such debate occurs, resolves N/A.