Bet NO because I expect AI to be mentioned (50%) but don't expect a specific brand of AI to be mentioned.

@uair01 I think you underestimate how much laypeople equate AI with ChatGPT with AI. It's like how the older generation called every videogame system "Nintendo".

Strongly recommend removing the word "primary" from your edit, which has a very different meaning in this context.

@Jai Thanks I did.

If there are no presidential debates, does this resolve NO or N/A?

@JosephNoonan N/A - I updated the description with this.

Wow somebody overcorrected hard. Happy to buy it back up to a reasonable value though

@MLGaming please resolve

@cc6 I don't think primary debates count.

@ZacharyKleinfa41 I've been assuming it refers to the same events as https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?

32% chance. [image]This question resolves to YES if during one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

Wikipedia also seems to agree that primary debates aren't presidential debates https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_debates

@cc6 This is referring to the same events as @StevenK mentioned, which are the main primary presidential debates in 2024. I updated the description to make this clear.

@MLGaming You mean the main general election debates. The one that just happened is a primary debate.

@JosephNoonan Yes the main general election debates - good catch

If this happens it will most likely be someone saying "Did ChatGPT write that response for you?"

@DavidBolin This happened last night!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNqk9bKnCjM

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