The Kamala Harris campaign soon after the first ABC debate, asked the Trump campaign for a second debate, will Donald Trump agree to a second debate?
Resolves yes if there is a second Kamala Vs Donald debate.
@10thOfficial Why? Are there any talks between the two campaigns about another debate? Debate season is over.
@whhatisachoice So will this question resolve No on October 30th if there is no debate by then? Or will you wait until the election to resolve? @ManifoldPolitics what about sweeps version?
CNN issues deadline for Trump and Harris to agree to final 2024 debate (msn.com)
โWith less than 30 days to Election Day, we are placing a deadline for a formal response from both campaigns for this Thursday, October 10 at 12 p.m. ET to participate,โ the network said.
@JakeLowery I think we might get down to around 10% more quickly, level off for a couple of weeks, and then see the last 10% bleed off during the last week if Trump still hasnโt changed his mind.
@jBosc I think there's a very good chance that plays out... but 75%? I'm just not seeing it. That said if it does happen, I will enjoy seeing updates on his rageposting that night on truthsocial or whatever it's called.
@ChrisSnyder When he decided not to attend the GOP primary debates in 2016 he always did something to get the attention anyway.
This year he can counter program with a town hall meeting on Fox News. Taking questions from a live audience. This will be much more entertaining than anything the moderators at CNN can come up with.
Interesting that the Mana version of this market has tended to trade higher probability than the Sweepscash version, which in turn has tended to trade higher probability than the real money market on Kalshi, which in turn has tended to trade higher probability than the real money market on Polymarket. I am not sure why that would be.
@Nightsquared Good point, I was thinking of this as a nonpartisan question but alot of it does hinge on how to interpret Trump's comments to-date and his possible desperation / ego-fragility in the future.
@Nightsquared corollary to this: polymarket is now trading at ~31%, which makes me think the sweeps market is currently underpriced by a fair amount