no time for a debate, hes going on rogan

Will this market be extended to November 5?

@10thOfficial Why? Are there any talks between the two campaigns about another debate? Debate season is over.

@becauseyoudo No reason, just curious.

@becauseyoudo Biden-Trump debated on Oct 22 in 2020

@10thOfficial nope

@whhatisachoice Excellent, thank you!

@kurt no problem :)

@whhatisachoice So will this question resolve No on October 30th if there is no debate by then? Or will you wait until the election to resolve? @ManifoldPolitics what about sweeps version?

Damn I’m up 200 on no please keep coping guys this is definitely a great time to buy

@JuneauxMaeder You need to be explaining this to me? I do not understand it.

Kamala might agree to a Fox debate?

@Traveel https://manifold.markets/whhatisachoice/will-harris-agree-to-a-fox-news-deb

@Traveel It is the coinflip! Hi!

I love your work you are doing!

CNN issues deadline for Trump and Harris to agree to final 2024 debate (msn.com)
“With less than 30 days to Election Day, we are placing a deadline for a formal response from both campaigns for this Thursday, October 10 at 12 p.m. ET to participate,” the network said.

OK, 22 days until the ostensible CNN debate date, and just 35 days until election day itself, looking forward to seeing the theta decay on this!

@JakeLowery I think we might get down to around 10% more quickly, level off for a couple of weeks, and then see the last 10% bleed off during the last week if Trump still hasn’t changed his mind.

You all really think there’s a 75% chance Donald’s ego lets Harris take the stage for the scheduled debate in front of a national audience and go on to talk about how everyone knows that the former president was invited too, but apparently was too scared to come back for more?

@ChrisSnyder On the other hand he might only get mad at that while/after it happens, so possibly.

@jBosc I think there's a very good chance that plays out... but 75%? I'm just not seeing it. That said if it does happen, I will enjoy seeing updates on his rageposting that night on truthsocial or whatever it's called.

@ChrisSnyder When he decided not to attend the GOP primary debates in 2016 he always did something to get the attention anyway.

This year he can counter program with a town hall meeting on Fox News. Taking questions from a live audience. This will be much more entertaining than anything the moderators at CNN can come up with.

How much more if it must the people see? It is only the content we are craving and not the substance. But substance abuse is high in the country? What can they do about it? Let us debate it!!! The help for the people is needed here and moderateres will not even ask it.

Interesting that the Mana version of this market has tended to trade higher probability than the Sweepscash version, which in turn has tended to trade higher probability than the real money market on Kalshi, which in turn has tended to trade higher probability than the real money market on Polymarket. I am not sure why that would be.

Polymarket could be lower because Polymarket leans right compared to Manifold, and so has more people who take Trump at his word.

@Nightsquared Good point, I was thinking of this as a nonpartisan question but alot of it does hinge on how to interpret Trump's comments to-date and his possible desperation / ego-fragility in the future.

@Nightsquared corollary to this: polymarket is now trading at ~31%, which makes me think the sweeps market is currently underpriced by a fair amount