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Starship Launch (IFT4)
Jack
Jack
Plus
When will there be a 5th Starship launch?
0.5%
2024-07-31
Yes
No
Open options
7%
2024-08-08
Yes
No
Open options
37%
2024-08-15
Yes
No
Open options
80%
2024-08-31
Yes
No
Open options
See 4 more answers
67
Ṁ12k
Jack
Plus
Will the 5th Starship test survive reentry?
85%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
42
Ṁ10k
Jack
Plus
Will SpaceXs 5th Starship test flight have a rapid unscheduled disassembly?
19%
Starship (upper stage) RUD
Yes
No
Open options
14%
Booster RUD
Yes
No
Open options
11
Ṁ10k
Chris Billington
Which months of 2024 will there be a StarshipSuperheavy launch?
0.7%
July
Yes
No
Open options
77%
August
Yes
No
Open options
38%
September
Yes
No
Open options
42%
October
Yes
No
Open options
See 8 more answers
80
Ṁ5.1k
Prize Market
Chris Billington
Premium
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
YES
530
Ṁ110k
Jack
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
100%
99.9%
Survives reentry (descends through 25km)
Open options
0.1%
Explodes during reentry
Open options
0.0%
Explodes before reentry
Open options
62
Ṁ5.1k
Jack
When will there be a 4th Starship launch?
Resolved
NO
2024-05-01 (On or before)
Open options
Resolved
NO
2024-05-10
Open options
Resolved
NO
2024-05-15
Open options
Resolved
NO
2024-05-20
Open options
See 9 more answers
88
Ṁ5.1k
Jack
Will SpaceXs 4th Starship test flight have a rapid unscheduled disassembly?
Resolved
NO
Booster RUD
Open options
Resolved
NO
Starship (upper stage) RUD
Open options
45
Ṁ5.1k
Jack
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
Resolved
YES
Clears the launch tower
Open options
Resolved
YES
Max Q
Open options
Resolved
YES
Booster most engines cut off (MECO)
Open options
Resolved
YES
Second stage engine start (SES)
Open options
See 8 more answers
47
Ṁ1.2k
Jack
How many launch attempts will it take for the 4th SpaceX Starship flight test to launch?
100%
99.8%
1
Open options
0.1%
2
Open options
0.0%
3
Open options
0.0%
Other
Open options
26
Ṁ5.1k
Jack
Will the 4th Starship test activate the Flight Termination System?
NO
24
Ṁ5.1k
Nat
When will the FAA close the mishap investigation for Starship IFT-3?
Resolved
NO
Before April 1st
Open options
Resolved
NO
Before April 15th
Open options
Resolved
NO
Before April 22nd
Open options
Resolved
NO
Before May 1st
Open options
See 12 more answers
27
Ṁ3k
Oleg Eterevsky
When will the 4th Starship launch happen?
Resolved
NO
March 2024 or earlier
Open options
Resolved
NO
April 2024 or earlier
Open options
Resolved
NO
May 2024 or earlier
Open options
Resolved
YES
June 2024 or earlier
Open options
See 3 more answers
87
Ṁ3.2k
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