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Starship Launch (IFT4)

Ṁ16k
When will there be a 5th Starship launch?
Resolved
NO
2024-06-30 (On or before)
Resolved
NO
2024-07-15
Resolved
NO
2024-07-31
Resolved
NO
2024-08-08
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Ṁ16k
Ṁ10k
Will the 5th Starship test survive reentry?
YES
Ṁ10k
Ṁ10k
Will SpaceX’s 5th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?
Resolved
NO
Booster RUD
Resolved
NO
Starship (upper stage) RUD
Ṁ10k
Ṁ5.1k
Which months of 2024 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?
Resolved
NO
January
Resolved
NO
February
Resolved
YES
March
Resolved
NO
April
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Ṁ5.1k
P Prize Market
Ṁ110k
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
YES
Ṁ110k
Ṁ5.1k
Will the 4th Starship test survive reentry?
100%99.9%
Survives reentry (descends through 25km)
0.1%
Explodes during reentry
0.0%
Explodes before reentry
Ṁ5.1k
Ṁ5.1k
When will there be a 4th Starship launch?
Resolved
NO
2024-05-01 (On or before)
Resolved
NO
2024-05-10
Resolved
NO
2024-05-15
Resolved
NO
2024-05-20
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Ṁ5.1k
Ṁ5.1k
Will SpaceX’s 4th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?
Resolved
NO
Booster RUD
Resolved
NO
Starship (upper stage) RUD
Ṁ5.1k
Ṁ1.2k
How far will the 4th Starship test get before exploding?
Resolved
YES
Clears the launch tower
Resolved
YES
Max Q
Resolved
YES
Booster most engines cut off (MECO)
Resolved
YES
Second stage engine start (SES)
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Ṁ1.2k
Ṁ5.1k
How many launch attempts will it take for the 4th SpaceX Starship flight test to launch?
100%99.8%
1
0.1%
2
0.0%
3
0.0%Other
Ṁ5.1k
Ṁ5.1k
Will the 4th Starship test activate the Flight Termination System?
NO
Ṁ5.1k
Ṁ3k
When will the FAA close the mishap investigation for Starship IFT-3?
Resolved
NO
Before April 1st
Resolved
NO
Before April 15th
Resolved
NO
Before April 22nd
Resolved
NO
Before May 1st
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Ṁ3k
Ṁ3.2k
When will the 4th Starship launch happen?
Resolved
NO
March 2024 or earlier
Resolved
NO
April 2024 or earlier
Resolved
NO
May 2024 or earlier
Resolved
YES
June 2024 or earlier
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Ṁ3.2k