How many launch attempts will it take for the 4th SpaceX Starship flight test to launch?
26
71k
resolved Jun 6
100%99.8%
1
0.1%
2
0.0%
3
0.0%Other

This resolves to the number of launch attempts made until Starship next lifts off (inclusive of the launch).

For example, if two launch attempts are scrubbed and Starship lifts off on the 3rd launch attempt, resolves to 3. Or, if on the 1st launch attempt Starship explodes on the pad before lifting off, and a new Starship vehicle successfully launches on the next attempt, then resolves to 2.

A "launch attempt" is defined in terms of a SpaceX official live stream going live and showing a countdown and views of the Starship–SuperHeavy vehicle, and intended to broadcast coverage of a launch to space (meaning the planned trajectory must reach at least 100km altitude).

"Lift off" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under the thrust from its engines.

See also: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-starshipsuperheavy-ift3-launch

This market runs until the next launch of Starship. Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count. So a 10km altitude flight test does not count.

If Starship never has another lift off by the end of 2024, resolves to "Other".

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