For this question, the start of reentry is defined as when Starship descends through 100km altitude, and the end of reentry is defined as when Starship descends through 25km altitude. (Main heating takes place between 65 and 35 km, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_entry)

If Starship explodes before descending through 100km altitude, resolves to "Explodes before reentry". If Starship explodes after that but before descending through 25km altitude, resolves to "Explodes during reentry". If it descends through 25km altitude without exploding, resolves "Survives reentry".

"Exploding" here will include any Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly of Starship (the upper stage). If the booster explodes by itself, that does not matter for this question.

If telemetry is lost and it can't be confirmed whether Starship descended through 25km intact, then it will be presumed that it did not. I.e. "Survives reentry" resolution requires confirmation that it was intact after descending through 25km altitude.

This question is about the next Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.