Each date resolves YES if a 4th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before that date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.
"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.
Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count. So a 10km altitude flight test does not count.
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Confirmation that the IFT-4 launch license can be (not has been) issued before the complete IFT-3 investigation is concluded. https://x.com/BCCarCounters/status/1795495860651835778
@JessRiedel SpaceX tweet re-iterates NET June 5. https://x.com/spacex/status/1795840604972429597?s=46&t=u9hd-jMa-pv47GCVD-xH-g
@JessRiedel aiui older markets were posted with ~100 mana in implicit depth, whereas newer ones are with 1000. So there's a lot of discrepancy. Adding answers later might also make a difference.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1792629142141177890
Starship Flight 4 in about 2 weeks. Primary goal is getting through max reentry heating. Worth noting that no one has ever succeeded in creating a fully reusable heat shield. Shuttle required >6 months of rework.
20 May
Will that move 5 June from 9%?
@jack Ah, indeed. Sorry, my brain ignored "on or before" and thought it was just "before"