When will there be a 4th Starship launch?
When will there be a 4th Starship launch?
88
5.1kṀ53k
resolved Jun 6
Resolved
NO
2024-05-01 (On or before)
Resolved
NO
2024-05-10
Resolved
NO
2024-05-15
Resolved
NO
2024-05-20
Resolved
NO
2024-05-25
Resolved
NO
2024-06-01
Resolved
NO
2024-06-05
Resolved
YES
2024-06-06
Resolved
YES
2024-06-07
Resolved
YES
2024-06-10
Resolved
YES
2024-06-15
Resolved
YES
2024-06-20
Resolved
YES
2024-07-01

Each date resolves YES if a 4th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before that date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.

A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.

"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.

Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count. So a 10km altitude flight test does not count.

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8mo

When will be the next (5th)?

bought Ṁ50 YES8mo
8mo

Worth adding more fine-grained days?

bought Ṁ2,000 NO8mo
bought Ṁ20 YES8mo

@Mqrius more dates added!

8mo

Confirmation that the IFT-4 launch license can be (not has been) issued before the complete IFT-3 investigation is concluded. https://x.com/BCCarCounters/status/1795495860651835778

reposted 8mo

S

8mo

This is me hitting the “repost” button without knowing what it does…What does it do?

@JessRiedel It's like a Twitter retweet, it shows the market in the feed of people who follow you.

8mo

Why are the probabilities so sensitive to even small bets on this market? Is that just indicative that there is a relatively low degree of (per-outcome) subsidy?

@JessRiedel Yup! I just added a bit more subsidy though.

bought Ṁ20 YES8mo

@JessRiedel aiui older markets were posted with ~100 mana in implicit depth, whereas newer ones are with 1000. So there's a lot of discrepancy. Adding answers later might also make a difference.

bought Ṁ101 YES9mo

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1792629142141177890
Starship Flight 4 in about 2 weeks. Primary goal is getting through max reentry heating. Worth noting that no one has ever succeeded in creating a fully reusable heat shield. Shuttle required >6 months of rework.
20 May

Will that move 5 June from 9%?

9mo

Creating markets on the 4th launch now that it's getting close!

9mo
bought Ṁ175 NO9mo

WDR possibly on the 16th

9mo

Can resolve NO @jack

9mo

@chrisjbillington they have until the end of the day for a surprise launch :)

bought Ṁ20 NO9mo

@jack Ah, indeed. Sorry, my brain ignored "on or before" and thought it was just "before"

10mo
10mo

Consider adding more fine-grained dates.

bought Ṁ3 YES10mo

@JessRiedel done! Is there any news yet on likely timeline?

11mo

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