61
871
2.1k
2025
1%
2024-05-20
1.1%
2024-05-25
2%
2024-06-01
8%
2024-06-05
13%
2024-06-10
34%
2024-06-15
64%
2024-06-20
83%
2024-07-01
Resolved
NO
2024-05-01 (On or before)
Resolved
NO
2024-05-10
Resolved
NO
2024-05-15

Each date resolves YES if a 4th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before that date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.

A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.

"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.

Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count. So a 10km altitude flight test does not count.

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Creating markets on the 4th launch now that it's getting close!

bought Ṁ175 2024-06-01 NO

WDR possibly on the 16th

2024-05-01 (On or before)

Can resolve NO @jack

@chrisjbillington they have until the end of the day for a surprise launch :)

bought Ṁ20 2024-06-01 NO

@jack Ah, indeed. Sorry, my brain ignored "on or before" and thought it was just "before"

Consider adding more fine-grained dates.

bought Ṁ3 2024-05-25 YES

@JessRiedel done! Is there any news yet on likely timeline?

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