When will there be a 4th Starship launch?
➕
Plus
88
Ṁ53k
resolved Jun 6
Resolved
NO
2024-05-01 (On or before)
Resolved
NO
2024-05-10
Resolved
NO
2024-05-15
Resolved
NO
2024-05-20
Resolved
NO
2024-05-25
Resolved
NO
2024-06-01
Resolved
NO
2024-06-05
Resolved
YES
2024-06-06
Resolved
YES
2024-06-07
Resolved
YES
2024-06-10
Resolved
YES
2024-06-15
Resolved
YES
2024-06-20
Resolved
YES
2024-07-01

Each date resolves YES if a 4th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before that date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.

A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.

"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.

Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count. So a 10km altitude flight test does not count.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

When will be the next (5th)?

bought Ṁ50 2024-06-07 YES

Worth adding more fine-grained days?

bought Ṁ2,000 2024-06-05 NO
bought Ṁ20 2024-06-07 YES

@Mqrius more dates added!

Confirmation that the IFT-4 launch license can be (not has been) issued before the complete IFT-3 investigation is concluded. https://x.com/BCCarCounters/status/1795495860651835778

reposted

S

This is me hitting the “repost” button without knowing what it does…What does it do?

@JessRiedel It's like a Twitter retweet, it shows the market in the feed of people who follow you.

Why are the probabilities so sensitive to even small bets on this market? Is that just indicative that there is a relatively low degree of (per-outcome) subsidy?

@JessRiedel Yup! I just added a bit more subsidy though.

bought Ṁ20 2024-06-05 YES

@JessRiedel aiui older markets were posted with ~100 mana in implicit depth, whereas newer ones are with 1000. So there's a lot of discrepancy. Adding answers later might also make a difference.

bought Ṁ101 2024-07-01 YES

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1792629142141177890
Starship Flight 4 in about 2 weeks. Primary goal is getting through max reentry heating. Worth noting that no one has ever succeeded in creating a fully reusable heat shield. Shuttle required >6 months of rework.
20 May

Will that move 5 June from 9%?

Creating markets on the 4th launch now that it's getting close!

bought Ṁ175 2024-06-01 NO

WDR possibly on the 16th

2024-05-01 (On or before)

Can resolve NO @jack

@chrisjbillington they have until the end of the day for a surprise launch :)

bought Ṁ20 2024-06-01 NO

@jack Ah, indeed. Sorry, my brain ignored "on or before" and thought it was just "before"

Consider adding more fine-grained dates.

bought Ṁ3 2024-05-25 YES

@JessRiedel done! Is there any news yet on likely timeline?

Similar market:

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules