When will there be a 5th Starship launch?
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43
24k
2025
3%
2024-06-30 (On or before)
29%
2024-07-15
40%
2024-07-31
65%
2024-08-15
89%
2024-08-31
96%
2024-09-30
99%
2024-10-31

Each date resolves YES if a 5th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before that date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.

A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.

"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.

Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count. So a 10km altitude flight test does not count.

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moar dates

bought Ṁ250 2024-08-15 YES

Added August 15. My usual approach is to try to make a spread of dates with ~25% difference in between, otherwise it's too many.

finer resolution:

@ChristopherRandles Maybe it would be better to use the "histogram"/"numeric" style market? Yours has finer resolution for the expected value, but doesn't give the full PDF. See here for an example: https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/when-will-starship-land-on-a-launch

@JessRiedel yeah I think the numeric markets are eventually going to be the best way for this, but it's not quite what I'm looking for yet

@jack Curious why not? (Is it because there's no date formatting, so you get that weird 2024.8 stuff?)

@JessRiedel I agree I would prefer those histogram/numeric markets to get the full pdf. However lowest cost numeric market seems to be 10k so can't make many of those but perhaps this might be one of the few that justifies it

I think mainly the lack of date formatting - which is extremely important. The #1 thing that makes a market usable is being able to easily interpret what the answers mean.

I also think the bet interface still needs some improvements. Like, it ought to show the probability for the range I'm betting on before and after the bet.