Each date resolves YES if a 5th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before that date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)
"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.
Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count. So a 10km altitude flight test does not count.
You can add more dates if you want. New answers must follow the same format.
1,000
3.00https://x.com/wapodavenport/status/1843618901990822068
Am told the regulatory approval from the FAA is indeed possible for a Starship launch by Sunday but not a certainty.
@Blomfilter "near Boca Chica" means it is re starship, SpaceX don't launch anything else nearby.
However
We asked the @FAANews about today´s published NOTMARs for Starship Flight 5.
The FAA confirmed that the statement from September 11, still stands, and Starship Flight 5 is not expected before late November.
@NASASpaceflight
It is likely just a request that was scheduled and then someone forgot to cancel it.
On the other hand
https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1841515546270941216
I've heard chatter that an earlier Starship launch is possible, including some time in October. But nothing is finalized.
might mean there is a possibility but nothing is fully agreed so FAA still say the situation re late November still stands.
The NOTMAR dates was 12 Oct through 19 Oct.
The first NOTAM has dates 13 Oct 2024 through to 19 Oct 2024 IIUC the date time format:
F3682/24 NOTAMN
Q) YMMM/QWMLW/IV/BO/W/000/999/2209S09449E999
A) YMMM
B) 2410131242 C) 2410191505
D) 2410131242 TO 2410131505
2410141242 TO 2410141635
2410151242 TO 2410151635
2410161242 TO 2410161635
2410171242 TO 2410171635
2410181242 TO 2410181505
2410191242 TO 2410191505
E) ROCKET LAUNCH WILL TAKE PLACE
FLW RECEIVED FROM GOVERNMENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA:
HAZARDOUS OPS WILL BE CONDUCTED FOR ATMOSPHERIC RE-ENTRY AND
SPLASHDOWN OF SPACEX STARSHIP FLT-5 STAGE 2 WI THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
2443S 07500E
2353S 07935E
2249S 08417E
2129S 08853E
2034S 09255E
1921S 09606E
1732S 10128E
1607S 10543E
1457S 11344E
1529S 11354E
1724S 11056E
1924S 10804E
2133S 10428E
2303S 09947E
2421S 09346E
2501S 08929E
2535S 08501E
2609S 08007E
2702S 07500E TO BEGINNING
F) SFC G) UNL
IFT5 "Late August / Early September" for expected wait on FAA license modification.
https://www.youtube.com/live/tEkRY8TG2BU
Doesn’t contain any info for flight 5 but you might appreciate the video anyway.
@chrisjbillington Curious where your confidence is coming from on this, if you’d like to share. Are you basing this mostly on just standard corrections for Elon time, or is there another reason you think a July launch is so unlikely?