Which months of 2024 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?
65
1.4k
5.1k
2025
1.4%
May
94%
June
17%
July
50%
August
50%
September
48%
October
41%
November
45%
December

Launch means hold-down clamps releasing after engine ignition, regardless of subsequent success or failure.

"Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.

Only launches planned to be orbital or near-orbital (intended to come within ~5% of orbital velocity) count.

Relevant timezone, for determining which month a launch is in, is local time at the launch site.

Edit Nov 9th: changed the definition of "launch". It turns out that the launch clamps may be released well in advance of ignition, such that they should not be used as part of the defintion of "launch"

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bought Ṁ15 August YES

"The FAA's Kelvin Coleman says at the #payloadspacecapitol event this evening that he didn't see any major issues with last week's Starship launch, but SpaceX still needs to carry out a mishap investigation. SpaceX, he says, is aiming for 6-9 more Starship launches this year."

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1769855034609615227

Glad to see we're expecting 3.18 launches this year! Exciting.

I see February is trending highly, but not too high. Is there a plan to just "try the same thing as last time, but better"?

Also interested in:

%Will Space-X Starship-Superheavy launch two times within a single 30 day period in 2024? [?%]

@Eliza

/ manifold joke /

Chris holds No in every month, looks like there will be zero launches this year

/ end joke /

@Eliza It's not clear if the next launch will be the same planned trajectory as the previous one or not. We can see regulatory filings that imply a different trajectory, including full orbit and a powered landing in the Indian ocean, as opposed to a slightly suborbital trajectory and an unpowered splashdown near Hawaii. Most think this new trajectory will apply to the third flight, but it might apply to the fourth and I don't think we have official confirmation yet.

Other than that, I think just the usual slew of incremental improvements, including lessons learned from the previous launch, as well as the differences that existed already between the vehicles that launched last and will launch next, since they're all different as SpaceX is improving things anyway. The first launch was fairly old hardware that they had already improved on considerably.

I'm not sure about specific improvements though. I think they're still going for the same hot-staging.

There were articles about them potentially demonstrating an internal propellant transfer in orbit:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/05/spacex-plans-nasa-refueling-demonstration-for-next-starship-launch.html

Which would be practice for something they'll need to do for the upcoming Artemis missions. No confirmation they'll be doing this yet, but you'd imagine it would require full orbit since the vehicle otherwise wouldn't be in space for very long.

@chrisjbillington On the question of whether it will be fully orbital:

Traders, in light of discussion here, I have modified the definition of "launch" that resolution will use. It turns out that the hold-down clamps may release well in advance of engine ignition, making them quite irrelevant to what people are likely betting on. Resolution will instead depend on "actual lift off from the pad".

These are still bugged! Should remain closed for now

@Joshua Still bugged? I saw @firstuserhere created a new unlinked multi, does that mean they're OK now?

@chrisjbillington They're fixed now but selling is still restricted. I think you should be ok to open them. @Joshua can you confirm?

Yeah James said we could re-open!