Will SpaceX’s 4th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?
45
5.1kṀ63k
resolved Jun 6
Resolved
NO
Booster RUD
Resolved
NO
Starship (upper stage) RUD

Resolves YES if the next (4th) Starship integrated flight test explodes or breaks up except as planned, known as a "rapid unscheduled/unplanned disassembly (RUD)".

The upper stage and booster each resolve separately to whether they each have a RUD.

Note that hitting the ocean surface intact and being destroyed on contact with the surface is not a RUD for this market (that is the mission plan). However, exploding on contact with land (as opposed to ocean) would be a RUD.

Other examples of things that aren't sufficient to count as a RUD: a part flying off without causing the breakup of the rocket, or a single engine having a fire.

Exploding on the pad before the launch would also count as a RUD.

We'll use a common sense definition here. The sources for resolution will be SpaceX, media, prominent space youtubers, etc. In case it isn't clear then I'll run a poll.

This question is about the next Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline, the question resolves when the flight occurs.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,495
2Ṁ1,362
3Ṁ991
4Ṁ789
5Ṁ578
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy