Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
23
154
480
Jun 1
50%
chance

Musk says the goal of the next Starship mission is to get past the point of maximum re-entry heating "with all systems functioning". This market considers the somewhat lower bar of "not exploding".

Resolves YES if in the fourth Starship–SuperHeavy test flight, SpaceX confirms that Starship didn't experience a rapid unscheduled disassembly until after passing the point of maximum re-entry heating.

Any RUD earlier in the flight causes this market to resolve NO.

If telemetry is lost before the point of maximum re-entry heating, and it cannot be confirmed exactly when a RUD occurred with respect to the point of maximum heating, the market resolves NO. It only resolves YES if it can be confirmed that the vehicle survived past that point. Confirmation via other means than on-board telemetry will count (but seems unlikely).

This market stays open until the fourth flight launches, meaning lifts off the pad, however slightly, under the thrust of its engines. Therefore a RUD on the pad before launch does not cause this market to resolve NO, it will stay open pending the result of the next Starship–SuperHeavy flight, even if that flight is not named IFT-4.

Resolves NA if there is good reason to expect a fourth flight will never happen.

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My heart wants to vote Yes, but

bought Ṁ1 YES from 45% to 46%