What is the most cursed market on Manifold?

#Manifold #Fun #Cursed #Cursed Market Tournament

Ṁ33k

Ṁ3.4k

resolved Jan 30

ALL

Submissions close (initial closing time of this market)

Dec 4

Seeding poll opens

Dec 5

Round 1 begins

Dec 18

Round 2 begins

Dec 28

Round 3 begins

Jan 6

Round 4 (semifinals) begins

Jan 14

Round 5 (final round) begins

Jan 22

100%98.1%

Will i go one day without stalking my ex?

0.0%

Will I accidentally type "vore" instead of "vote" at least once between now and November 6, 2024?

0.0%

What is the most cursed market on Manifold?

0.0%

Shit Pants Stock

0.0%

Will a human have offspring with a non-human animal before the end of 2024?

0.0%

Will a current or former world leader shit themselves in 2023?

0.1%

Will any big naughty whales dump their full delicious loads 🍆 💦 into any of my tiny little limit orders?🥵 😈

0.0%

Whales vs. Minnows

0.0%

Will Joe Biden win the popular vore against Donald Trump?

0.0%

Toe Sucking Stock (TOE)

0.0%

Smegma Stock

0.1%

Pee in Ballpit

0.1%

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky tweet rationalussy

0.0%

Will openai release a search engine

0.0%

Speaker of the house

0.0%

Is Ben Shapiro into vore?

0.1%

Whalussies vs Minnussies: Will whalussies get 69 times as much as minnussies with their meagre but numerous rationalussy

0.0%

Will anyone have an orgy at Manifest?

0.0%

[Bad Resolve] Will anyone walk around manifest in a fursuit?

0.0%

Which Manifest attendee would I enjoy having a one-night stand with the most?

The long anticipated sequel to /JosephNoonan/will-yes-bettors-create-the-most-cu is here.

The options above were all submitted as contenders for the Cursed Market Tournament, and the tournament was seeded based on a preliminary approval-style poll and the probabilities at the time when submissions closed. The top 32 options were chosen for the bracket, shown here:

The tournament will proceed based on single-elimination rules. For each round, I will create markets on what the winner of each match will be. The winners will be determined based on a vote, with the average probability of the market on the matchup being used as a tiebreaker. (If there is somehow still a tie, I will be the tiebreaker, but this has probability near zero).

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
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2		Ṁ494
3		Ṁ410
4		Ṁ409
5		Ṁ271

25 Comments

44 Holders

453 Trades

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The final round has concluded. The winner was the top seed, "Will I go one day without stalking my ex?", by a pretty large margin. Thank you all for participating in the Cursed Market Tournament and for submitting the most cursed markets you could find.

bought Ṁ100 of Will i go one day wi... YES

The final round has begun! I made the form extra cursed for this one: https://forms.gle/Cn2cbL8VcfsgDzsL9

@PlasmaBallin Here is the individual matchup market for the final round. It's exactly the same as this one in terms of how it will resolve, but it will determine the winner by average probability in the case of a tie.

I voted in the Google Form this time so don't look for my vote in the comment section.

I mean, I think by default now the most cursed market is https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/what-is-the-most-cursed-market-on-m

@PatrickDelaney That one lost in Round 1.

sold Ṁ0 of Smegma Stock YES

The semifinals are here:

@PlasmaBallin And here's the link to the poll itself: https://forms.gle/uszkdqtDQmrX6iWQ6

@PlasmaBallin I'll go with stalking the ex.

I regret not adding this market to the tournament

@Shump Just splice it in to the next round. No one win notice

The round 2 poll is out:

https://forms.gle/yyzHJd65vvfaYZoH8

@PlasmaBallin Thank you!

Stalking

Whale loads

Offspring non-human animal

Murder profit on Manifold

[No Vote]

Set curtain on fire

Terrorist organization

I skipped voting in 1/4 of the matches because I don't want to encourage too many ties.

The winners of Round 1 are now shown on the bracket in the description. I'll resolve the markets and post the vote counts in each individual market shortly. Note that the graphs I'll post do include Eliza's votes, since I added them to the form with an alt account.

Have a very cursed Christmas, everyone!

Bet on the round 1 markets before it's too late!

https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=cursed-market-tournament-round-1

Since they will be used in tiebreaking to determine which markets advance, I want them to actually have enough traders to reflect voters' opinions.

The poll for Round 1 is out!

https://forms.gle/ERdCcEEjPy8D55Xn7

Here is where you can bet on all the Round 1 markets:

https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=cursed-market-tournament-round-1

@PlasmaBallin

Thanks for posting, here are my votes. I am withholding votes in 1 out of every 4 matches because I want to avoid too many ties.

Will i go one day without stalking my ex?

[No Vote]

Shit Pants Stock

The Sexual Marketplace: Which national political figures will have a new sex scandal (true or not) before 2025?

Will there be an unanticipated, wide-spread Mana-affecting bug by 2024-02-01?

Conditional on manifold.love explicitly allowing people <18 to participate, will it get very bad PR within 3 months?

[No Vote]

Will someone commit murder to profit on Manifold by 2030?

Conditional on there being a ball pit at Manifest, will someone pee in it?

Is Ben Shapiro into vore?

Will Donald Trump be assassinated before September 9, 2023?

[No Vote]

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

[No Vote]

Will I get any rationalussy at Manifest?

Will Manifold donate money to a terrorist organization by 2024?

bought Ṁ10 of Will a human have of... YES

Okay, here's the seeding order:

You can check with the votes and probabilities below if you think I made a mistake. I'll start the first round soon, once I have everything ready.

Here are the results from the seeding round. I'll have the official seed listing and tournament bracket out soon, along with the markets for the first round.

The poll has been open for about a week, but most of the people who traded on this market haven't voted yet. If you haven't voted, do so soon, since I will probably close it in about a day.