Conditional on manifold.love explicitly allowing people <18 to participate, will it get very bad PR within 3 months?
31
1kṀ2604
2026
70%
chance

Context: a bunch of people on discord want to allow teens on manifold.love under certain conditions.

"Extremely bad PR" is defined by first page result in google search for "manifold markets" associating the website with pedophiles or mentioning such controversy.

If the rules of manifold.love explicitly ban <18yos, this will be immediately resolved N/A.

See also:

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/conditional-on-manifoldlove-allowin

Conditional on manifold.love allowing people under 18 to participate, will it get to 10,000 DAU's before 2026?
14% chance. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/conditional-on-manifoldlove-banning)
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@ZacParker I'd be surprised if it got bad publicity after being shut down due months. Got insider info?

or mentioning such controversy

If the top result mentions the controversy but claims that Manifold handled it well, this still resolves YES? That seems wrong.

predictedYES

@IsaacKing I think it's fair. Any association to pedos is toxic and very bad PR. Plus, this mostly covers vague journalistic language - "the dating website, which made the controversial decision to blah blah ..."

I won't trade any more on this, besides my initial 20 mana position.

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