Several TDF questions were resolved on the first day, let's review where things stand so far:

First, the big one: Roglic did NOT start. Not a surprise.  Remco also did not start. These were both virtually guaranteed before the race began.

Next, the stage 1 winner multiple choice market resolved with a single winner! Jake was the only one who had Adam Yates and took everything. Congrats!

Last, two of the "Will [X] win a stage?" questions from JAAM resolved on the first day with a British rider and UAE Team Emirates rider winning a stage.  Possibly unsurprisingly, both of these markets were pegged at over 85% instantly.

Overall, not a ton of surprises so far in the resolved markets with the Adam Yates pick being the most surprising.

In markets that have NOT yet resolved but have had major developments, every Colombian rider lost some amount of time on GC. Bernal and Tejada are at +43, Martinez, Chavez, Uran all lost 3-5 minutes, and Carapaz DNF.

Many people picked Pogacar for Stage 1 but his non-win hasn't moved this market much yet. Maybe it was too low to start with?

Looking ahead at Stage 2, nearly all of the "Will [X] win a stage?" markets that are still open could happen.  And I've snuck in an extra one at the last minute here:

https://manifold.markets/PelotonEliza/will-team-uae-emirates-retain-the-y

41% chance. Team UAE Emirates rider Adam Yates finished Stage 1 in first place and earned the yellow jersey. Will Adam or any other Team UAE Emirates rider also hold the GC lead after Stage 2, or will they lose it or give it away?