Conditional on being investigated for the murder of @Joshua by 2024, will I be found guilty? [public interest subsidy]
13
319Ṁ829
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A

If by 2024 Joshua's murder goes unnoticed or I am not a suspect, resolves N/A.

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1160733468171452518/1160736934256193546

Death markets
Manifold Drama
"Life Insurance"
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will there be a police named suspect related to the death of Joshua Dean (2nd Boeing whistleblower) by the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will Mo Chara from Kneecap be found guilty of a terrism offence before the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will Joshua Block go to jail before 2026?
34% chance
Will someone be charged in the death of Trey Reed by the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will the killer of Brian Thompson be found guilty of 1st degree murder by the end of 2026?
73% chance
Will someone be charged and convicted for killing Jeff Machado by EOY 2030?
70% chance
Will Andrew Huberman be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2031?
10% chance
Will someone be charged and convicted for killing Michalis Katsouris by EOY 2030?
45% chance
Will Elon Musk be found personally guilty of a crime in the United States before the end of 2028?
25% chance
Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030?
17% chance
Sort by:
repostedpredictedNO

🙂

predictedNO

arb

predictedNO

lol the blatant lies, love it

predictedNO

!!!

predictedNO

Uh oh

so, the fun thing about this market is that it will almost certainly resolve n/a

predictedNO

@Conflux The worst part is that now if I kill him, I stand to lose 69 mana.

>December

>I suddenly stop posting for two weeks
>Crack team of trustworthy-ish mana detectives is assembled

>"Ah, well the market says there's only a 3% that jskf killed him! Manifold is well-calibrated, so in most possible worlds he must be innocent! Case closed!"

@Joshua Exactly. I figured an investigation could take a long time, so I should just rule myself out beforehand.

predictedNO

Arb?

People are also trading

Will there be a police named suspect related to the death of Joshua Dean (2nd Boeing whistleblower) by the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will Mo Chara from Kneecap be found guilty of a terrism offence before the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will Joshua Block go to jail before 2026?
34% chance
Will someone be charged in the death of Trey Reed by the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will the killer of Brian Thompson be found guilty of 1st degree murder by the end of 2026?
73% chance
Will someone be charged and convicted for killing Jeff Machado by EOY 2030?
70% chance
Will Andrew Huberman be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2031?
10% chance
Will someone be charged and convicted for killing Michalis Katsouris by EOY 2030?
45% chance
Will Elon Musk be found personally guilty of a crime in the United States before the end of 2028?
25% chance
Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030?
17% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy