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MANIFOLD
Conditional on being investigated for the murder of @Joshua by 2024, will I be found guilty? [public interest subsidy]
13
Ṁ319Ṁ829
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A

If by 2024 Joshua's murder goes unnoticed or I am not a suspect, resolves N/A.

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1160733468171452518/1160736934256193546

Market context
Death markets
"Life Insurance"
Manifold Drama
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repostedpredictedNO

🙂

predictedNO

arb

predictedNO

lol the blatant lies, love it

predictedNO

!!!

predictedNO

Uh oh

so, the fun thing about this market is that it will almost certainly resolve n/a

predictedNO

@Conflux The worst part is that now if I kill him, I stand to lose 69 mana.

>December

>I suddenly stop posting for two weeks
>Crack team of trustworthy-ish mana detectives is assembled

>"Ah, well the market says there's only a 3% that jskf killed him! Manifold is well-calibrated, so in most possible worlds he must be innocent! Case closed!"

@Joshua Exactly. I figured an investigation could take a long time, so I should just rule myself out beforehand.

predictedNO

Arb?

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