Conditional on being investigated for the murder of @Joshua by 2024, will I be found guilty? [public interest subsidy] | Manifold

Conditional on being investigated for the murder of @Joshua by 2024, will I be found guilty? [public interest subsidy]

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resolved Jan 1

Resolved

N/A

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1M

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If by 2024 Joshua's murder goes unnoticed or I am not a suspect, resolves N/A.

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1160733468171452518/1160736934256193546

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repostedpredicted NO

🙂

predicted NO

arb

predicted NO

lol the blatant lies, love it

predicted NO

!!!

predicted NO

Uh oh

so, the fun thing about this market is that it will almost certainly resolve n/a

predicted NO

@Conflux The worst part is that now if I kill him, I stand to lose 69 mana.

>December

>I suddenly stop posting for two weeks
>Crack team of trustworthy-ish mana detectives is assembled

>"Ah, well the market says there's only a 3% that jskf killed him! Manifold is well-calibrated, so in most possible worlds he must be innocent! Case closed!"

@Joshua Exactly. I figured an investigation could take a long time, so I should just rule myself out beforehand.

predicted NO

Arb?

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