The Cursed Market Challenge: Which team can create the most cursed market on Manifold?
20
292
390
resolved Aug 1
Resolved
NO

Do you have what it takes to create the most cursed market on Manifold? The rules are simple: Come up with an idea for a cursed market, and make it. You can then submit the market for consideration by posting a link or embedding it in the comments. In the end, I will choose the submission which I think is the most cursed, and resolve this market YES if the person who submitted it holds YES shares at close, and NO if they hold NO shares at close. If the user who submitted it doesn't hold any shares, I will choose the next-most-cursed market.

Rules for submissions:

  • Only one submission per user, but you can replace a previous submission by submitting a new market.

  • You can only submit a market that you created.

  • I cannot submit any markets, nor will I hold shares at close, to prevent bias in my judgement.

  • Aside from the restrictions above, you can submit any market that you create before this one closes for the final time. That includes markets that have already resolved, and markets that you created before this one existed.

How this market will close:

The market will close at its scheduled closure date if the following conditions are met:

  • Each side has at least one submission (i.e., there is at least one YES shareholder and at least one NO shareholder who have submitted markets).

  • At least five markets must be nominated. A nomination refers either to a valid submission, a submission that isn't being considered (either because the user replaced it with a new one or because they don't hold shares at close), or a user linking to a market and suggesting that its creator should submit it. It doesn't count if someone nominates one of my markets, since they aren't allowed to be considered, but I can nominate another user's market if I want.

If these conditions are not met, the close date will be extended by one month, until they are met.

The winner will be decided subjectively by me. I will choose mainly based on how cursed I find it to be, but I will favor more original markets, so slight variations on someone else's idea probably won't win, even if the variant is more cursed. I will also take into account arguments made in the comments for why a certain market should win and the opinions of people in the comments. "Cursed" covers a broad range of qualities - it could be unsettling, bizarre, baffling, cringeworthy, gross, or some combination thereof. Bonus points if it is cursed in a funny way, and double bonus points if the creator was probably embarrassed to have their name attached to such a cursed market.

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The sequel:

The Cursed Market Challenge has finally reached its conclusion! Four users submitted their markets: @ShadowyZephyr, @AnT, @Predictor, and @evergreenemily. However, Predictor doesn't hold shares at close, so there are only three submissions that can actually affect the resolution.

On Team YES:

/ShadowyZephyr/will-elon-musk-be-revealed-to-be-an

On Team NO:

/AnT/will-manifold-announce-a-tax-on-blo

/evergreenemily/will-i-accidentally-type-vore-inste

I think the vore market is the most cursed one, especially since the Elon Musk one is a derivative of my Mark Zuckerberg market. Thus, Team NO has won.

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan I agree. I thought I might come up with a second submission but I forgot about it.

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan Joseph your own vore poll would have won all of this hands down 😭 😨

@Stralor My vore poll was inspired by the winner, though.

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan This is a dubious honor, but I accept it with grace.

bought Ṁ6 of NO

Submission (I actually forgot about this challenge and only realized I could submit this because I decided to put it in the "cursed" group.)

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Predictor I assume this is a submission?

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan Absolutely!

@Predictor Alright, we are up to 3 submissions

Team YES still doesn't have any submissions yet, so I will have to extend this to the end of July.

We now have two submissions, but it seems that both submittors are on the same side (Team NO). If one of them switches sides before close, or if someone else jumps in on Team YES, the market will be able to resolve at the end of the month.

@AnT You have to bet on the market for your submission to be counted. The way it works is that, after the market closes, I resolve it in favor of the winning market's creator, assuming the conditions for resolution are met. If you and ShadowZephyr hold opposite positions at close, that would match the criteria for resolution.

Well, there are now enough nominations to meet the second criterion for resolution, so this will resolve on the closure date if each side has a submission. Trouble is, there are no submissions yet! Maybe we can get one from @levifinkelstein, who has created two cursed markets, nominated below.

@JosephNoonan Also tagging @Predictor, @PeterBerggren, and @ItchyTheWookiee, whose markets were also nominated.

@JosephNoonan Conflux's "The Market" was also nominated, though I've already said I find it to be blessed rather than cursed.

We are now up to four nominations, but still no submissions.

oh no...