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MANIFOLD
If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
78
Ṁ1kṀ14k
2034
12%
chance

Assumes that I do attempt to put them out after 1 minute has elapsed.

Only applies to a curtain still hanging up normally by the window, not one that gets moved elsewhere.

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his past demonstrates highly destructive behaviors :)

im sure ur partner will be realll happy about this

what is ur curtain made of?

lmao, the extents ppl go to for manifold markets

Given that these are his most recent comments, he may already be deceased

@TheAllMemeingEye HAHAHAHHA lmao. u a funny guy. imma follow u

buddy, no

Is this an AI safety market?

  1. Starting fires is not easy. How will you make your curtain burn for a minute?

  2. There will probably be smoke. Will you have a window open?

  3. This would be more interesting to bet on if it wouldn't take years to resolve and if there was resolution mechanics for the case where you just don't set anything on fire.

  4. I'd advice to set things on fire when the stakes are considerably lower than "house burns down". Setting things on fire is more fun that way.

@Primer I don't think it needs to burn for a minute, it just needs to be set on fire and then wait 1 minute.

@Eliza Maybe? If that's true: define "set on fire". There's probably plenty of regulation for flammability of materials. I'm focusing on that because I doubt you can just easily take a lighter and set a curtain on fire.

@Primer I hadn’t considered the possibility that he would be overcome with smoke inhalation.

Will you have a backup outside of the house? Will you call 911 beforehand? Could be an awkward phone call.

bought Ṁ25 NO

Most modern curtains are made of polyester, and they probably won't catch fire with a standard lighter. Even if you used something with higher heat, the most you'd probably get is a puddle of melted plastic.

reposted

this deserves to be a prize market

Fires do spread quite fast

https://youtu.be/0nAPEoPKUSY

I have a terminal value to curtains being fireless

Do you have any...

  1. ...fire alarm in the house?

  2. ...automatic water system that activates in case of fire?

  3. ...mechanism that automatically notifies others in case of fire?

predictedNO

@Pazzaz There's probably a fire alarm somewhere; at least I remember there was when we bought the house. If the house catches on fire I assume some of the pipes will melt and release the water inside. And our house is very visible to the neighbors. So I think we're good on all three counts.

@IsaacKing i hear a lot of "probably" and "at least I remeber" and "i think" and "assume" and "some". not great signs. also firealamrs should be well kept dude. its probably not working at this point

I think it depends a lot on how you put them out after the minute. Are you standing there waiting with a fire extinguisher? Or are you planning to blow it out?

predictedNO

@EliTyre To be fair to the fire, I think I need to not prepare in advance. Once the minute is up I can run and grab a fire extinguisher if I have one lying around normally, but I can't go out and buy one just for this.

@IsaacKing Do you have a fire extinguisher in your kitchen?

predictedNO

@IsaacKing I advise you to get one, but less firmly than I advise you to set your curtain on fire for manifold clout. [EDIT: to NOT set your curtain on fire! Please do not do this!]

@DanielFilan Oops see edit