Will anyone have an orgy at Manifest?
112
resolved Sep 24
Resolved
YES

5+ people are required for an orgy for this market, but it doesn't need to be a free-for-all (a swingers party would qualify). There must be at least 50% overlap with Manifest attendees, but it doesn't need to happen at the event or the venue. A day or two before/after in the SF region is fine.

I'm open to suggestion on what evidence we would consider. One person saying it happened without something to back it up certainly wouldn't be enough.

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ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted YES

I was invited to the orgy that caused the resolution to Yes in a conversation that started with “hey, wanna some insider info on this market?”

I then did a bit of insider trading.

So far, this was the funniest moment of the conference for me

ryfuzzi avatar
ryfuzzi

Proof?

5 replies
Mira avatar
Mira 🍎predicted YES

@ryfuzzi "evidence? please show me your evidence? 🥸"

8 avatar
Trongpredicted NO

@ryfuzzi do you really want proof 🗿

ryfuzzi avatar
ryfuzzi

@Mira @8 I skipped manifest because i saw the odds of an orgy were too low to justify making the trip, now i feel like i missed out

jeremiahsamroo avatar
Jeremiah

@8 ☠️

Conflux avatar
Conflux

@ryfuzzi I don’t have any proof, but I did speak to a couple people who said they attended the orgy

evergreenemily avatar
evergreenpredicted YES

oh my god

lag avatar
lagpredicted NO

y'all are wild for that

1 reply
lag avatar
lagpredicted NO

@lag my 100 mana 😩

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raypredicted NO

I want to know the deets

PeterBuyukliev avatar
Peter Buyuklievpredicted NO

Fucking rationalists, can't even trust them for 3 days...

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴

I received intel in the form of pretty good affidavits and witnesses late tonight, so this, to my happy surprise, resolves YES. For the privacy of those concerned I won't be talking about details or persons here on the site.

nmehndir avatar
Naman

hey why wasn’t i invited

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴

I love what's happening here. Maybe someone had or is having an orgy. Maybe people are fucking around in another way. In any case, it's good fun ❤️

dieselbaby1337 avatar
dieselbaby1337bought Ṁ20 of YES

Betting YES just for the fun/memes, I guess time will tell

Sinclair Chenbought Ṁ100 ofYES
Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴

@Sinclair 👀

BenWeinsteinRaun avatar
Ben Weinstein-Raunpredicted YES

Does it help if I say that I think there should be an orgy at manifest? No? Well, I'll be outside the gate hawking rhino horn or something, I guess.

Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chenbought Ṁ69 of YES

the base rate of 5+ rationalists having sex before/after an event together is quite high.

4 replies
Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chenbought Ṁ200 of NO

ehh part of me was thinking of insider trading yes on this by convincing my polycule to have sex together. but actually I expect this weekend to be busy, tiring, and impact-maxxing instead

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴

@Sinclair yeppp. how big is your polycule? common to see constellations large enough, but not 'cules

Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chenpredicted NO

@Stralor constellations aren't real. we are just lone stars in the night sky. There once was a four star system that swirled in transient orbits, but it eventually settled into a stable state with no romantic pairings, only diffuse affection

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴

@Sinclair damn sounds wonderful. I've dreamt of ish like that