What is the most cursed market on Manifold?
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52
Ṁ33k
resolved Jan 30
Submissions close (initial closing time of this market)
Seeding poll opens
Round 1 begins
Round 2 begins
Round 3 begins
Round 4 (semifinals) begins
Round 5 (final round) begins
100%98.1%
Will i go one day without stalking my ex?
0.0%
Will I accidentally type "vore" instead of "vote" at least once between now and November 6, 2024?
0.0%
What is the most cursed market on Manifold?
0.0%
Shit Pants Stock
0.0%
Will a human have offspring with a non-human animal before the end of 2024?
0.0%
Will a current or former world leader shit themselves in 2023?
0.1%
Will any big naughty whales dump their full delicious loads 🍆 💦 into any of my tiny little limit orders?🥵 😈
0.0%
Whales vs. Minnows
0.0%
Will Joe Biden win the popular vore against Donald Trump?
0.0%
Toe Sucking Stock (TOE)
0.0%
Smegma Stock
0.1%
Pee in Ballpit
0.1%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky tweet rationalussy
0.0%
Will openai release a search engine
0.0%
Speaker of the house
0.0%
Is Ben Shapiro into vore?
0.1%
Whalussies vs Minnussies: Will whalussies get 69 times as much as minnussies with their meagre but numerous rationalussy
0.0%
Will anyone have an orgy at Manifest?
0.0%
[Bad Resolve] Will anyone walk around manifest in a fursuit?
0.0%
Which Manifest attendee would I enjoy having a one-night stand with the most?

The long anticipated sequel to /JosephNoonan/will-yes-bettors-create-the-most-cu is here.

The options above were all submitted as contenders for the Cursed Market Tournament, and the tournament was seeded based on a preliminary approval-style poll and the probabilities at the time when submissions closed. The top 32 options were chosen for the bracket, shown here:

The tournament will proceed based on single-elimination rules. For each round, I will create markets on what the winner of each match will be. The winners will be determined based on a vote, with the average probability of the market on the matchup being used as a tiebreaker. (If there is somehow still a tie, I will be the tiebreaker, but this has probability near zero).

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The final round has concluded. The winner was the top seed, "Will I go one day without stalking my ex?", by a pretty large margin. Thank you all for participating in the Cursed Market Tournament and for submitting the most cursed markets you could find.

The final round has begun! I made the form extra cursed for this one: https://forms.gle/Cn2cbL8VcfsgDzsL9

@PlasmaBallin Here is the individual matchup market for the final round. It's exactly the same as this one in terms of how it will resolve, but it will determine the winner by average probability in the case of a tie.

I voted in the Google Form this time so don't look for my vote in the comment section.

I mean, I think by default now the most cursed market is https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/what-is-the-most-cursed-market-on-m

@PatrickDelaney That one lost in Round 1.

The semifinals are here:

@PlasmaBallin And here's the link to the poll itself: https://forms.gle/uszkdqtDQmrX6iWQ6

@PlasmaBallin I'll go with stalking the ex.

I regret not adding this market to the tournament

@Shump Just splice it in to the next round. No one win notice

The round 2 poll is out:

https://forms.gle/yyzHJd65vvfaYZoH8

@PlasmaBallin Thank you!

Stalking

Whale loads

Offspring non-human animal

Murder profit on Manifold

[No Vote]

[No Vote]

Set curtain on fire

Terrorist organization

--

I skipped voting in 1/4 of the matches because I don't want to encourage too many ties.

The winners of Round 1 are now shown on the bracket in the description. I'll resolve the markets and post the vote counts in each individual market shortly. Note that the graphs I'll post do include Eliza's votes, since I added them to the form with an alt account.

Have a very cursed Christmas, everyone!

Bet on the round 1 markets before it's too late!

https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=cursed-market-tournament-round-1

Since they will be used in tiebreaking to determine which markets advance, I want them to actually have enough traders to reflect voters' opinions.

The poll for Round 1 is out!

https://forms.gle/ERdCcEEjPy8D55Xn7

Here is where you can bet on all the Round 1 markets:

https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=cursed-market-tournament-round-1

Okay, here's the seeding order:

  1. Will i go one day without stalking my ex?

  2. Conditional on there being a ball pit at Manifest, will someone pee in it?

  3. If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

  4. Will a human have offspring with a non-human animal before the end of 2024?

  5. Will someone commit murder to profit on Manifold by 2030?

  6. Will Manifold donate money to a terrorist organization by 2024?

  7. Conditional on being investigated for the murder of @Joshua by 2024, will I be found guilty? [public interest subsidy]

  8. Will any big naughty whales dump their full delicious loads 🍆 💦 into any of my tiny little limit orders?🥵 😈

  9. Will anyone have an orgy at Manifest?

  10. [Bad Resolve] Will anyone walk around manifest in a fursuit?

  11. Whalussies vs Minnussies: Will whalussies get 69 times as much as minnussies with their meagre but numerous rationalussy

  12. Will a current or former world leader shit themselves in 2023?

  13. Conditional on manifold.love explicitly allowing people <18 to participate, will it get very bad PR within 3 months?

  14. Which nightmarish abomination is getting the best head?

  15. Which Manifest attendee would I enjoy having a one-night stand with the most?

  16. Toe Sucking Stock (TOE)

  17. Smegma Stock

  18. Is Ben Shapiro into vore?

  19. Will I accidentally type "vore" instead of "vote" at least once between now and November 6, 2024?

  20. Will Joe Biden win the popular vore against Donald Trump?

  21. Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?

  22. Will I get any rationalussy at Manifest?

  23. Will Donald Trump be assassinated before September 9, 2023?

  24. Shit Pants Stock

  25. The Sexual Marketplace: Which national political figures will have a new sex scandal (true or not) before 2025?

  26. Is Burger Blast the place to be? (resolves like "Is rationalussy good or bad?")

  27. Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?

  28. The most cursed market on Manifold

  29. Will there be an unanticipated, wide-spread Mana-affecting bug by 2024-02-01?

  30. What is the most cursed market on Manifold?

  31. Will This Specific Manifold Prediction Market Question Be Resolved Before 2035?

  32. Will this question close at exactly 13% at the end of August 2023?

    --------------------------------------- Eliminated --------------------------------------------------

  33. Will OpenAI release a search engine before 2024? [Read description]

  34. Who will be the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives?

You can check with the votes and probabilities below if you think I made a mistake. I'll start the first round soon, once I have everything ready.

Here are the results from the seeding round. I'll have the official seed listing and tournament bracket out soon, along with the markets for the first round.

The poll has been open for about a week, but most of the people who traded on this market haven't voted yet. If you haven't voted, do so soon, since I will probably close it in about a day.

13 people have voted in the seeding round so far. Only one option has unanimous agreement to its being cursed.

You're going to have to do a followup.

/Aella/will-i-poop-my-pants-before-2027

The poll for the seeding round is here:

https://forms.gle/BK3C6z8GcjwwbPoX6

I will also open this market back up, since I already recorded the probabilities of each option at close for tiebreaking purposes.

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