What is the most cursed market on Manifold?
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30%
Will i go one day without stalking my ex?
16%
If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
6%
The Sexual Marketplace: Which national political figures will have a new sex scandal (true or not) before 2025? https://manifold.markets/Joshua/which-national-political-figures-wi
5%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky tweet rationalussy
4%
Will any big naughty whales dump their full delicious loads πŸ† πŸ’¦ into any of my tiny little limit orders?πŸ₯΅ 😈
4%
Whalussies vs Minnussies: Will whalussies get 69 times as much as minnussies with their meagre but numerous rationalussy
3%
Will I get any rationalussy at Manifest?
3%
Will someone commit murder to profit on Manifold by 2030?
3%
Pee in Ballpit
3%
Will Manifold donate money to a terrorist organization by 2024?
3%
Will a current or former world leader shit themselves in 2023?
3%
Conditional on being investigated for the murder of @Joshua by 2024, will I be found guilty?
3%
Will anyone have an orgy at Manifest?
2%
Will Donald Trump be assassinated before September 9, 2023?
2%
Will this question close at exactly 13% at the end of August 2023?
1.7%
Conditional on manifold.love explicitly allowing people <18 to participate, will it get very bad PR within 3 months?
1.3%
The most cursed market on Manifold
1.3%
Will Joe Biden win the popular vore against Donald Trump?

The long anticipated sequel to /JosephNoonan/will-yes-bettors-create-the-most-cu is here. Submit options to be considered as contenders for the Cursed Market Tournament.

Here's how it works: Submit either the title of the market or a common name that the market is known as (e.g., you could submit "The Market" without writing out it's full title, since I know what market that refers to). Markets will only be counted as contenders if I can tell what market the option refers to, so it's recommended that you also link to the market you have in mind, particularly if there are others with the same title. Any type is allowed, including bounties and polls.

After this market closes, I will run a poll asking traders which markets are cursed enough to compete in the tournament (using the checkbox format). I will pick the top 2^n options as contenders in the tournament, where 2^n is the largest power of two that is less than or equal to the total number of valid options. I will also use votes in the poll to seed the tournament, with ties being broken by the option's probability when this market closes. It will be a single-elimination tournament, bracketed such that, if every game is won by the highest seed, then in every round, the kth seed from the top faces the kth seed from the bottom, out of the remaining contenders. For example, a 32-market bracket would look like this:

Once the tournament bracket is set up, I will reopen this market and create markets on who will win in Round 1. For each round, the winners will be determined by a vote, with the average probability of the market on who will win being used as a tiebreaker. (If there is somehow still a tie, I will be the tiebreaker, but this has probability near zero).

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EvanDaniel avatar
Evan

You're going to have to do a followup.

/Aella/will-i-poop-my-pants-before-2027

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'

The poll for the seeding round is here:

https://forms.gle/BK3C6z8GcjwwbPoX6

I will also open this market back up, since I already recorded the probabilities of each option at close for tiebreaking purposes.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'

Alright, the market has closed, so here's the list of probabilities at market close, in order. This will be used as the tiebreaker for seeding:

  • 29% Will i go one day without stalking my ex?

  • 14% If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

  • 6% The Sexual Marketplace: Which national political figures will have a new sex scandal (true or not) before 2025? https://manifold.markets/Joshua/which-national-political-figures-wi

  • 5% Will Eliezer Yudkowsky tweet rationalussy

  • 4% Will any big naughty whales dump their full delicious loads πŸ† πŸ’¦ into any of my tiny little limit orders?πŸ₯΅ 😈

  • 4% Whalussies vs Minnussies: Will whalussies get 69 times as much as minnussies with their meagre but numerous rationalussy

  • 3% Will I get any rationalussy at Manifest?

  • 3% Will someone commit murder to profit on Manifold by 2030?

  • 3% Pee in Ballpit

  • 3% Will Manifold donate money to a terrorist organization by 2024?

  • 3% Will a current or former world leader shit themselves in 2023?

  • 3% Conditional on being investigated for the murder of @Joshua by 2024, will I be found guilty?

  • 2% Will anyone have an orgy at Manifest?

  • 2% Will Donald Trump be assassinated before September 9, 2023?

  • 1.9% Will this question close at exactly 13% at the end of August 2023?

  • 1.7% Conditional on manifold.love explicitly allowing people <18 to participate, will it get very bad PR within 3 months?

  • 1.3% The most cursed market on Manifold

  • 1.2% Will Joe Biden win the popular vore against Donald Trump?

  • 0.7% Will a human have offspring with a non-human animal before the end of 2024?

  • 0.6% Which nightmarish abomination is getting the best head?

  • 0.6% Is Burger Blast the place to be?

  • 0.3% Will there be an unanticipated, wide-spread Mana-affecting bug by 2024-02-01?

  • 0.3% Shit Pants Stock

  • 0.3% [Bad Resolve] Will anyone walk around manifest in a fursuit?

  • 0.3% Will This Specific Manifold Prediction Market Question Be Resolved Before 2035?

  • 0.3% Which Manifest attendee would I enjoy having a one-night stand with the most?

  • 0.2% Toe Sucking Stock (TOE)

  • 0.2% Smegma Stock

  • 0.2% Is Ben Shapiro into vore?

  • 0.2% Will I accidentally type "vore" instead of "vote" at least once between now and November 6, 2024?

  • 0.1% Whales vs. Minnows

  • 0.1% Will openai release a search engine

  • 0.1% What is the most cursed market on Manifold?

  • 0.1% Speaker of the house

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'

@PlasmaBallin I will have the seeding poll out soon

Eliza avatar
Eliza

Edit: wrong market.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'

Last chance to submit markets! Or to make a cursed market of your own. Surely someone can make something super cursed to steal the win last-minute, right?

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚bought αΉ€10 of
The Sexual Marketpla...
YES

@PlasmaBallin I have accepted this challenge and made a blatantly trashy but still serious market:

I propose that while it is not as outrageously gross as other markets, this format has the potential to bring more long-term evil to the world than any other option.

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚

Actually, I'll edit the title to make it a little bit more obviously cursed just for this.

Conditional on being investigated for the murder of @Joshua by 2024, will I be found guilty?
PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'

As suggested by ManifoldLive:

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
Will I get any rationalussy at Manifest?
Shump avatar
Shump

What is this doing here? This is the most blessed market, not the most cursed.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'

It's official, we now have 32 contestants after I added these two:

snoozingnewt avatar
Snoozing Newt
PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'

@snoozingnewt Are you adding that as an answer?

Will Donald Trump be assassinated before September 9, 2023?
Will this question close at exactly 13% at the end of August 2023?
The most cursed market on Manifold
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
Is Burger Blast the place to be?
PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'

Forgot another one of my cursed markets

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'

A new challenger appears:

BrianCaulfield avatar
Brian Caulfield

Will This Specific Manifold Prediction Market Question Be Resolved Before 2100?

Will i go one day without stalking my ex?
Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚
penn badgley love GIF by Lifetime

Will there be an unanticipated, wide-spread Mana-affecting bug by 2024-02-01?
bohaska avatar
Bohaska

The bug was found through this market not getting trader bonuses

EvanDaniel avatar
Evan

@bohaska Personally I thought it was hilarious, not cursed.

So hilarious we got a couple of followups, in fact:
/Joshua/will-there-be-an-unanticipated-bug

/EvanDaniel/will-nothing-unanticipated-happen-b

bohaska avatar
Bohaska

@EvanDaniel Well, the market is not cursed in the definition used here, but the market was definitely cursed by Fate.