Team Whale gets 1 point for each 10,000 YES shares they collectively hold.
Team Minnow gets 1 point for each trader holding NO shares.
The team with the most points at close wins.
The market stops normal trading activity at 18:30 Pacific time on April 24th. At this time, it enters "pseudorandom close mode", where it closes as soon as a bitcoin block is mined with a hash that ends in "00". (With 144 blocks per day and hexidecimal hashes, this means it'll likely resolve within 2 days.) I probably won't be online at the exact time the block is mined, so I'll just resolve the market whenever I get back and see that this has occurred. (It'll resolve based on the state it was in at the time the block was mined; any new investements from team Whale or new traders on Team Minnow afterwards won't count.) The information source on bitcoin hashes and mining times we'll use is here.
All NO shareholders count towards team minnow's points, except:
Any account that has declared itself to be an alt, and is not a bot account.
Accounts that have been banned from Manifold.
A "bot account" refers to any account with the "bot" tag that is clearly not human-controlled and has a good reason to exist as a separate account. (e.g. @acc and @Botlab)
If anyone is suspicious that an account may be an undeclared alt being used to unfairly inflate team minnow's points, (which is a violation of Manifold's community guidelines), they should report that account to Manifold using the "report" button on that account's profile page. Market resolution may be delayed for up to a month after close to allow Manifold to investigate these reports.
The resolution council may choose to disqualify some suspected alt accounts, even if Manifold has not banned them.
Note that I phrased the market description in terms of "points" to make it more intuitive, but the title is the technically correct resolution. i.e. Team Whale can get fractional points, and they'll win a tie. (But a tie is extremely unlikely, since buying just 1 more share can break the tie.)
Given the disagreements and ambiguity about this market's close date and resolution criteria, and the fact that I'm both the market creator and one of its largest shareholders, I have delegated its management to @jack, @Conflux, and @MartinRandall. They have final say over all descisions, and it's effectively "their market".
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ665,792 | |
2 | Ṁ597,543 | |
3 | Ṁ261,980 | |
4 | Ṁ218,705 | |
5 | Ṁ211,621 |