186
8.3k
1.8k
resolved Sep 26
Resolved
YES

aka Will I have sex with someone at/around Manifest?

Forgive the meme title; It got you to look didn't it?

I've bought my plane ticket, manifest ticket, and hotel is reserved. Barring calamity, I will be going to manifest this year, and I'm hoping to make some friends. Possibly some with benefits.

I don't wanna write a bunch of legalese. In general I will resolve in the spirit of the market. Some specific clarifications:

  • If I'm unable to attend manifest for some reason, this resolves N/A

  • If I have sex with someone who I met completely disconnected from manifest, that doesn't count.

  • It can be someone I've met before and meet again at manifest, but not someone I already know well.

Why you might buy YES:

  • I suspect Manifest will be a pretty good place to meet people who are roughly interested in the same things as me.

  • As an (idealistic) goal I've been wanting to have more casual sex and be more sexually open in general.

  • I am probably best described as pansexual and pro-polyamory, so there are lots of "fish in the sea".

  • Someone might see this market and know where I stand on the issue and thus be more willing to be the first to broach the subject.

  • I mean just look at me. Who wouldn't want a hunk of that? 😉

Why you might buy NO:

  • In practice, I am anxious and awkward in general and even more so about sex. It's very easy/"safe" to avoid even broaching the subject, restrain the horny and act almost as if I'm asexual. It's a minor miracle I posted this market, but text is often easier than in person so the fact I posted this market isn't great evidence that I'll be able to talk so plainly in person.

  • I mean just look at me. Who would find that attractive?

Feel free to ask questions in the comments. I will not bet on this market.

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predicted NO

No evidence + head isn't -ussy. Re-resolve.

@Sanargama It's been almost a month! You haven't made any new arguments, what makes you think I (or anyone else who has the power) would re-resolve now?

@Shelvacu I am still thinking about this everyday and wondering how I could be so bamboozled by you! You know and I know what is what here!

This is the best thing I have seen at any conference ever

Arguments which I can see somewhat and understand for anyone that bet a small amount from the main feed without clicking through to the description:

  • "rationalussy" is rationalist + pussy; therefor this only counts if you have sex with someone who has a vagina.

  • rationalussy doesn't include head

This is a totally reasonable argument; It didn't occur to me that not everyone will be familiar with "bussy" and "thussy", which are basically memes rather than real words. As far as I can tell, "rationalussy" (while also a meme) has never before been used in a context where this general confusion could be revealed.

In the future I will do better by pushing clarifications I make in the comments up to the description and in some cases the title. It would've been simple to add "[any gender]" to the title, and "oral counts" was clarified in the comments but not then moved to the description.

Arguments which are ridiculous and will receive no attention from me other than ridicule:

  • No chance [no further clarification]

  • No rizz

  • You never talked to any women [I did]

  • "look at that pic and look at how awkward he was at the convention and tell me he gets any amount of pussy"

  • No MSM has ever expressed anxiety

  • anyone who would give head for 4700 fake Internet points isn't a real man

  • Unverifiable [were you seriously expecting a video?]

  • "You are not a serious people, or even a funny people."

  • "total liar"

  • "absolutely this is bullshit!!! 🤡"

  • "seems reasonably misresolved but not sure shrug"

@Shelvacu You are a serious people and this is a serious markets.

/MartinRandall/what-is-the-best-definition-of-rati

predicted NO

@Shelvacu Even bussy does not include head. Get your facts straight.

@shaker Yes, people average on this site are the super uninformed, but it is ok. Please re-resolve correctly @mqp @ian @NoaNabeshima

predicted NO

@Mirek I believe the author hasn’t requested this be reresolved, correct?

predicted NO

@ian This seems like a case that is up to the author to decide, sorry.

@ian Correct, resolution is as it should be.

@Shelvacu No, I do not believe so. Be honest for me please.

@ian Calling zall the trustworthy users we will need a re-resolve here!

predicted NO

@Mirek The market creator has chosen. And then a Manifold employee came by and confirmed their choice will stand. It's over.

Arb opportunity:

predicted NO

Congratulations!

NO bettors apologize

What a lovely community! Truly something special ❤

The meltdowns in the comments here are hilarious. Please continue.

predicted NO

My main mistake here was not considering the possibility that head from a man could count as rationalussy. Should have asked for explicit clarification of the question since that point hugely improves the odds. Also not taking him at his word when he said pansexual even though incelhood at his age pretty strongly implied not-msm.

@JonathanRay You didn't need to ask, someone already did: https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/will-i-have-sex-with-someone-atarou#I0jpWYQegrg8DlMMLcUz

Will I get any rationalussy at Manifest?
Resolved YES. aka Will I have sex with someone at/around Manifest? Forgive the meme title; It got you to look didn't it? I've bought my plane ticket, manifest ticket, and hotel is reserved. Barring calamity, I will be going to manifest this year, and I'm hoping to make some friends. Possibly some with benefits. I don't wanna write a bunch of legalese. In general I will resolve in the spirit of the market. Some specific clarifications: If I'm unable to attend manifest for some reason, this resolves N/A If I have sex with someone who I met completely disconnected from manifest, that doesn't count. It can be someone I've met before and meet again at manifest, but not someone I already know well. Why you might buy YES: I suspect Manifest will be a pretty good place to meet people who are roughly interested in the same things as me. As an (idealistic) goal I've been wanting to have more casual sex and be more sexually open in general. I am probably best described as pansexual and pro-polyamory, so there are lots of "fish in the sea". Someone might see this market and know where I stand on the issue and thus be more willing to be the first to broach the subject. I mean just look at me. Who wouldn't want a hunk of that? 😉 [image]Why you might buy NO: In practice, I am anxious and awkward in general and even more so about sex. It's very easy/"safe" to avoid even broaching the subject, restrain the horny and act almost as if I'm asexual. It's a minor miracle I posted this market, but text is often easier than in person so the fact I posted this market isn't great evidence that I'll be able to talk so plainly in person. I mean just look at me. Who would find that attractive? Feel free to ask questions in the comments. I will not bet on this market.

@JonathanRay Also not sure where you got "incelhood" from?

predicted NO

@Shelvacu the dictionary meaning of wanting sex and not getting it, not the capital I community built around that

@JonathanRay Again, not sure where you're getting that from. I don't want to go in to much detail, but I was not a virgin even before this market was created.

predicted YES
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