Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes

Jan 1, 2024

SF Bay Rationalists

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?

35%

chance

Play-money trading

Mana (M$) is the play-money used by our platform to keep track of your trades. It's completely free for you and your friends to get started!

S G 17 days ago

0

S G 17 days ago

0

Yev is predicting NO at 28% 17 days ago

0

S G 17 days ago

0

Gavriel K 14 days ago

0

GeorgeVii is predicting NO at 28% 13 days ago

0

Spindle bought M$1,000 of YES18 days ago

0

Yev is predicting NO at 25% 18 days ago

0

Spindle is predicting YES at 14% 22 days ago

0

GeorgeVii 22 days ago

0

John Beshir is predicting NO at 14% 22 days ago

0

GeorgeVii 22 days ago

0

John Beshir is predicting NO at 14% 22 days ago

0

GeorgeVii 22 days ago

0

Matt P is predicting NO at 17% 22 days ago

0

Spindle bought M$1,283 of YES22 days ago

0

Juan Gil bought M$10 of NO24 days ago

0

Anton bought M$10 of NO24 days ago

0

James Babcock 25 days ago

0

Martin Randall is predicting NO at 25% 13 days ago

0

Yev is predicting NO at 26% 13 days ago

0

Yev is predicting NO at 26% 13 days ago

0

Martin Randall is predicting NO at 26% 13 days ago

0

Martin Randall is predicting NO at 26% 13 days ago

0

Yev is predicting NO at 26% 13 days ago

0

James Babcock is predicting YES at 26% 9 days ago

0

S G 25 days ago

0

Julian 25 days ago

0

Velocity bought M$11 / M$11 of YES at 35%2 hours ago

Velocity bought M$23 / M$23 of YES at 37%3 hours ago

Velocity bought M$13 / M$13 of YES at 35%4 hours ago

wavedash sold M$46 of NO from 32% to 35%8 hours ago

phaen bought M$44 of NO from 35% to 32%a day ago

phaen bought M$6 of NO at 35%2 days ago

Pepe bought M$92 / M$108 of NO from 36% to 35%2 days ago

wavedash sold M$66 of NO from 31% to 36%2 days ago

Nicholas Charette sold M$20 of NO from 30% to 31%3 days ago

Apiellis bought M$10 of NO at 30%3 days ago

phaen bought M$50 of NO at 30%4 days ago

phaen bought M$50 of NO from 31% to 30%4 days ago

Yev sold M$15 of NO from 30% to 31%4 days ago

Michael Wheatley bought M$2,000 of NO from 39% to 30%5 days ago

Martin Randall bought M$187 / M$300 of YES at 30%5 days ago

Martin Randall bought M$310 / M$310 of YES at 31%5 days ago

Martin Randall bought M$100 of NO from 48% to 39%5 days ago

Michael's Bot Laboratory bought M$82 / M$82 of YES at 38%5 days ago

Michael's Bot Laboratory bought M$100 / M$100 of NO from 60% to 48%5 days ago

Spindle bought M$1,000 of YES from 36% to 60%5 days ago

wavedash sold M$66 of NO from 31% to 36%5 days ago

Martin Randall bought M$68 / M$100 of NO at 60%5 days ago

Martin Randall bought M$100 / M$100 of NO at 56%5 days ago

Martin Randall bought M$100 / M$100 of NO at 57%5 days ago

Martin Randall bought M$100 / M$100 of NO at 58%5 days ago

Martin Randall bought M$100 / M$100 of NO at 59%5 days ago

Yev bought M$200 / M$200 of YES at 30%6 days ago

Yev bought M$100 / M$100 of YES at 30%6 days ago

Yev bought M$200 / M$200 of NO at 40%6 days ago

Jack bought M$1 / M$1 of NO at 44%6 days ago

Michael Wheatley bought M$200 of NO from 41% to 31%6 days ago

Michael Wheatley bought M$200 of NO from 53% to 41%6 days ago

Michael's Bot Laboratory bought M$101 / M$101 of YES at 41%6 days ago

Michael's Bot Laboratory bought M$100 / M$100 of NO from 66% to 53%6 days ago

Spindle bought M$1,592 of YES from 35% to 66%6 days ago

Nicholas Charette bought M$100 / M$100 of NO at 50%6 days ago

Adrian sold M$67 of NO from 31% to 35%6 days ago

wavedash bought M$500 / M$500 of NO at 60%6 days ago

wavedash sold M$212 of NO from 29% to 31%6 days ago

Velocity bought M$2 / M$2 of NO at 29%7 days ago

Isaac King bought M$300 / M$300 of NO at 29%7 days ago

Jack bought M$50 / M$50 of YES at 29%7 days ago

Michael's Bot Laboratory bought M$184 / M$250 of NO from 31% to 29%7 days ago

Michael's Bot Laboratory bought M$250 / M$250 of NO from 34% to 31%7 days ago

Velocity bought M$2 / M$2 of NO at 33%7 days ago

Jack bought M$100 of NO from 40% to 34%7 days ago

Jack bought M$100 / M$100 of NO at 60%7 days ago

Jack bought M$100 / M$100 of NO at 55%7 days ago

Jack bought M$87 / M$200 of NO at 66%7 days ago

Michael's Bot Laboratory bought M$64 / M$64 of YES at 31%7 days ago

Play-money predictions

Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market platform where you can forecast anything.