resolved Oct 25
Mike Johnson
Kevin McCarthy
Hakeem Jeffries
Matt Gaetz
Donald Trump
Steve Scalise
Tucker Carlson
Patrick McHenry
Tom Emmer
Elise Stefanik
Tom Cole
Jim Jordan
Byron Donalds
Kevin Hern
Tim Burchett
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Liz Cheney
Ben Shapiro
Andy Biggs
Jodey Arrington

Kevin McCarthy has been removed as the Speaker of the US House of Representatives.

Who will be the next Speaker?

  • This market will resolve to the name of the next person to permanently take the role of the Speaker. An acting Speaker, a temporary Speaker or anyone who fills in so that a Speaker can be elected will not be counted (unless they go on to become the permanent speaker)

  • If Kevin McCarthy is elected speaker again, the market will resolve to him rather than his future successor

  • This is a free response market so please add anyone who you think should be in the conversation. Every additional response should be the name of one single person - please don't add something like "a black woman" or "there won't be a speaker this year" as the market will only resolve to the name of one single person!

  • If the next Speaker is someone who is not listed by name in any of the options, the market will resolve to "Other". If you want to trade individual options now that this market has hit the limit of 100 options, you can do so here - /SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-6001b2fb6f64

  • The market will not resolve to any of the answers which are not a person's name such as "No one till next Congress" or "old white dude". If you bet on those options, you will lose your Mana.

Update 13th October - because a couple of people have asked, I wanted to clarify what will happen if the House simply can't choose a Speaker.

  • This market will resolve to the next Speaker of the House, no matter how long that takes. If there is no Speaker for the next year and a half, the market will resolve to the first Speaker after the 2024 election. Or the 2026 election.

  • Patrick McHenry is currently the Speaker pro tempore. If he starts to carry out House business or is granted more of the powers of Speaker, this market will not resolve to him unless he formally becomes the Speaker of the House.

While we're waiting, there are a lot of other markets on the Speaker race. You can see them all here but here are a few markets on what happens next and how long we're going to be waiting:




Update 20th October - the chaos has got so bad that this market has hit the 100 option limit. Named members of the house are trading below 0.1% and Manifold have had to change their UI to hide the dozens of hopeless options!

If none of the listed options becomes the next Speaker, this market will resolve to "Other". If you want to trade further options within Other, you can do so here:


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@marketwise Really nice. Subscribed. Folks should also tip this comment (by clicking the three dots) if they want to incentivize more writeups like this! (And tips should be publicly displayed on a comment to show that everyone's doing that!)

@Charlie I did both things you did and very much appreciate the suggestions!!

@marketwise really cool to see my trading strategy featured!

Hello! There was a slight problem with how this market resolved, so I've unresolved it. Will resolve it again with the correct payout. Sorry the the inconvenience

@JamesGrugett It is resolved again! Thanks for bearing with us. Let me know if it doesn't look correct.

I'm not that good at using APIs to get data, can someone help me get the data from this market (time vs probability) as a csv. I want to do some analysis on how unpredictable the market movements were

If you got refunded too much mana in error when this closed, don't spend it all in one place. It might get taken back.

Lol, my meager 210 profit has put me in 65th. Should I suppose that 80%+ of traders lost mana?

@MP Yes you should lol i

@SirCryptomind seems quite reckless spending 25% of your nw in one market

@MP Some people seem to spend more than 100% of their nw in single markets.

@NicoDelon I am approaching 200% in the superconductor market lol

On day 23, this market finally resolves to Mike Johnson.

After those wild swings and unexpected twists and turns, the resolution was almost boring in the end...

Thanks to everyone who traded on this market and thanks to everyone who commented on here as well. I know politics is serious, but this market has been entertaining and engaging while things were looking insane. I also hope that this market was illuminating - I certainly felt like I knew more about what was going on because of the odds from this market!

Well done to @Domer on the insane profits and for tipping us off to Johnson when he was on 5%. If only I'd listened! Well done to @Joshua, @jacksonpolack and @SemioticRivalry on their five figure profits as well!

I'm looking forward to seeing what the next big market turns out to be...

@SimonGrayson Well facilitated yet again Simon.

18th place in profit, LFG!!!!!

Another exciting, suspenseful election now that the coveted seat of Vice Chair of the House Republican Conference, formerly held by Johnson, is up for grabs!

@JamesGrugett When I select Mike Johnson and press Resolve I get a spinning wheel for about 30 seconds and then a red error message saying "Error resolving question". It's happening on both mobile and desktop and I've been able to resolve some other markets in the last few minutes without any issues.

Could you resolve this for me or let me know if there's something that needs to be fixed before I can resolve it?

@SimonGrayson Yes. I will take a look! Sorry for the issues.

@JamesGrugett Yeah...I was an earlier adopter of Johnson when he was at .01% and that stopped showing up, but I bet on him BIG LEAGUE.

@SimonGrayson At this point this should probably be the N/A resolution. By the time this resolving Johnson will have already been removed from position and votes for next speaker begin!

@SimonGrayson Resolved it!

@JamesGrugett I had to make a change to more efficiently load bets for this type of market to get it to work.

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