Will there be an unanticipated, wide-spread Mana-affecting bug by 2024-02-01?
Basic
8
Ṁ708
resolved Nov 4
Resolved
YES

We've had no-loan days, missing loan days, broken limit orders, bets on resolved markets, and more. Then there's the weird profit spikes, but at least those don't seem to affect anyone's Mana balance or profit, just the display. And there are markets about them and when they'll be fixed or not:

/chrisjbillington/will-there-be-another-double-loan-d

/Joshua/how-many-more-no-loan-days-will-the

/Ernie/will-manifold-fix-the-random-profit-378c301eabab

Will there be a mana-affecting bug that wasn't anticipated or reported before this market was created, before February?

This is going to be a bit vibes based; I won't trade. If it causes a market to resolve, or contributes to a count, it's clearly anticipated. This market is about the Rumsfeldian uncertainties.

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About to resolve this YES unless someone suggests a reason I shouldn't.

  • Unanticipated: I'm not aware of "no new trader bonuses" being either previously reported as a bug or having a market about it. I don't think this would cause any other markets to resolve if this one didn't exist.

  • Mana-affecting: Clearly affects balance. There was no requirement for amounts or anything.

  • Widespread: I gather this affects literally all users.

I also didn't get a streak bonus today so far. I've placed a bet here that should have triggered it: https://manifold.markets/AlexMizrahi/will-ai-agents-be-used-to-develop-s

Reported: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1143957322050314372/threads/1170317840537100358

Got the bonus after placing a bet here

Hold on I gotta try something

predicted YES

@Joshua hahahahaha

I will wait until morning to see what gets reported, but this is currently looking short lived.

In a turn of irony, @EvanDaniel reports that they're not getting any trader bonuses for this market.

Checking my own notifications, I see that I haven't gotten trader bonuses all day! Just checked some recently-created ranked+subsidised markets and they have indeed increased in their unique trader counts, but I've gotten no bonuses either!

I'd say that warrants a YES resolution.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 86% to 88%

@chrisjbillington I report the same on this market, where it is subsidized which means I should be getting trader bonuses, but i'm not.

@chrisjbillington if there is an issue with toggles, then this market is free mana as I believe David's coded them up

@firstuserhere Hahahahahaha

@firstuserhere It's been about ten hours since my last bonus notification....to the git history I go

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington Please post it here when you find it!

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Hm, I'm not sure if it counts as significant enough for Salty's market, so I sold my bet there. But will still take a quick look at git

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington The notifications in the txns table stop around 13:15, Nov 3rd, pacific time.

I don't see anything obviously relevant in the git history in the hours before that time (the multi positions tab changes landed around then, but actually slightly afterwards). But that's a pretty superficial look, there may be something there less obvious.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington Hm, I guess it's probably the changes from the multi-contract positions metrics, despite the few minutes difference - I guess just by chance the users I checked didn't have any unique traders in those few minutes.

Chris BillingtonboughtṀ70YES
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