Will OpenAI release a search engine before 2024? [Read description]
296
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resolved Oct 19
Resolved
YES

Beta products don't count

Close date updated to 2023-12-31 7:59 pm

For the effects of this market ChatGPT browsing plugin could count as search engine.

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I don't even remember what I bet in this market.

However, the current description is wrong; ChatGPT with browsing uses an existing search engine, so OpenAI did not release a search engine. This is not a matter of opinion but a fact.

Strongly agree the question should have been worded better and the fact that a product that clearly isn't a search engine counted as a "search engine" should have been clarified in the description much earlier than it was. I'm pretty salty about this one.

predicted NO

Not a search engine. The search engine used by the plugin is Bing. This also already existed a while ago with bing search. OpenAI did not release a search engine. It's using a search engine that already exists.

predicted NO

@Rwin yeah this shouldn’t have resolved to yes

predicted NO

I wonder if a browsing plug-in that literally just consisted of a field to type an url in would have counted as yes. Both aren't search engines but both are browsing plug-ins

predicted YES

@jstn It was very clear in the resolution criteria.

predicted YES

@Rwin Which you clearly did not read.

predicted NO

Scroll down. I commented four months ago that I wouldn't change my bet even though the resolution criteria was changed to include a browsing plugin.

A browsing plugin is not a search engine. I'm not going to lie to myself about this to earn Mana.

predicted YES

@Rwin Kinda sounds like your problem then. Like nobody forced you to do that. I actually agreed with you at first but I follow the market creator because they are god in terms of decision making here.

predicted NO

@BTE You're entitled to your opinion. I simply maintain that OpenAI did in fact not release a search engine.

predicted YES

@Rwin Only one opinion matters. I feel you though. Sorry it went this way. How much did you lose?

predicted NO

@BTE Not much, 150M or something. I'm not commenting because I want my money back, I'm not very active on Manifold anymore. I only care about reiterating that OpenAI did not release a search engine.

predicted NO

@BTE equating releasing a plugin that uses and existing search engine with release an open ai search engine 🤡

predicted YES

@jstn I get it. But it’s not up to us. Each market has different criteria and the epistemic clarity will vary based on many things that are all controlled by one person, the market creator. You can make a market with better resolution criteria and I will bet on it.

bought Ṁ5,000 of YES

https://help.openai.com/en/articles/6825453-chatgpt-release-notes

Browsing is now out of beta (October 17, 2023)

Browsing, which we re-launched a few weeks ago, is moving out of beta.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Note the date/time in the bottom right.

sold Ṁ963 of YES

Also on mobile. @RobertCousineau Try updating the app maybe?

sold Ṁ82 of NO

@BTE I was on web - maybe cached resources or something?

predicted YES

@RobertCousineau Probably.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

It's not out of beta for me at least?

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

It’s out of beta now.

@FranklinBaldo This market requires either a resolution or clarification.

bought Ṁ529 of NO

Beta products don't count

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Mira thanks

predicted YES

@Mira No longer.

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