The intent of this post is to collect the fun Manifold stories into a place where interested readers can pick up the context from several years of the site.
Share something good in a comment below and we can link it from the top post. Or make a separate post and we can add it to the list.
I hope we can get an actual link for all of these eventually. I can't think of an exhaustive list right now so I will put in 5 and people can suggest more below.
Broad impact
PC got in trouble after winning Masters Season 4 and 5
Starting at "you can post anything on this site" and then cooling off
LK-99 brought a lot of attention to Manifold and had high trading volume
Domer knew who the Speaker of the House would be
Manifold.love
Manifold got coal for Christmas (and daily stock markets got killed)
"The Pivot" (Major economic changes)
Re-pivot (Sweepcash announced)
Un-pivot (Sweepcash ends)
TSLABull was wrong, TSLA did not reach 275 before 8/8
Yuna crushing sports markets with one stupid trick
Tumbles Financial Complex
When will Jimmy Carter die?
Smaller items
Leagues ending "randomly"
CoolFold and friends
Top Creator leaderboard competition (multiple times)
That user who was accidentally marked as a bot and got their own division in Silicon league
Spindle's traunches
Leviathan and Behemoth
Luigi Mangione
Proof School group
Mr. Basil
/SG/who-stole-the-painting-from-the-bet
Manifold criminal investigations: the community figured who it was and then the criminal bet herself up at the end
the great top creator slaying
@Eliza yes we did! and its back online and charging
/strutheo/what-should-we-do-with-the-tactical
/strutheo/tactical-nuclear-mana-spirit-bomb-c
"The Market" (this was maybe kind of a prelude to WvM, but I guess it's not covered in that article?) https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-the-average-probability-of-thi
firstuserhere steps market https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-firstuserhere-walk-100000-step
Leviathan and Behemoth
Spindle, e.g. https://manifold.markets/Spindle/experts-will-agree-that-a-major-der
how has no one mentioned Rationalussy yet?? https://manifold.markets/SG/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-write-a-twee (sadly the tweet embed is dead)
Manifold playing cards https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/m1000-subsidy-who-are-the-14-most-i-11d2d1d658bd
@jcb Thanks, great submission!
"Spindle" was related to the "traunch" meme right? I've kinda been putting stuff related to just 'rogue users/memes' in the lower category and trying to put things which impacted a lot of the site into the upper one but it's really arbitrary so ignore any meaning from that.
That user who was accidentally marked as a bot and got their own division in Silicon league
It's still there!
I don't currently have time to write up full narratives of the stories within, but for now here is a list of markets that I think have good manifold lore:
On further reflection this is not a set of stories...
Eliza being unusually dedicated about sumo and cycling markets
Does Yuna get a place?
That user who was accidentally marked as a bot and got their own division in Silicon league
Mira GPT-4 sudoku market
Manifold love, Bet on Love
Leagues that end 'randomly'
Sweepcash
MVP
Proof School
Not a story but Luigi Mangione had an account on this site
Before my time (in the “paying attention” sense) but I enjoyed this loan + Marcus’ amusing write-up afterwards for a look at Manifold culture:
Very obvious, but LK99.
The story of @MolbyDick and some of the biggest mana betting the site has ever seen
@Ziddletwix my single favorite bit of manifold lore is this market:
/JimHays/in-inside-out-2-will-riley-and-this
But I’m not sure anyone else is half as amused by it as I am (coii I’ll of write up that play by play at some point).
Manifold falls in love with Jimmy Carter Death Markets (I can expand on this later perhaps, but for now I'm just listing heavy Manifold-centric things I've noticed in my time here)
Peter is overconfident in Pierre and silences the doubters (maybe this has too heavy overlap with the TFC?, but I think no, since it's only a sub-chapter of the TFC)