Manifold Lore
May 10, 2025

The intent of this post is to collect the fun Manifold stories into a place where interested readers can pick up the context from several years of the site.

Share something good in a comment below and we can link it from the top post. Or make a separate post and we can add it to the list.

I hope we can get an actual link for all of these eventually. I can't think of an exhaustive list right now so I will put in 5 and people can suggest more below.

Broad impact

  • Rationalussy

  • The Market

  • Whales vs Minnows

  • PC got in trouble after winning Masters Season 4 and 5

  • Starting at "you can post anything on this site" and then cooling off

  • LK-99 brought a lot of attention to Manifold and had high trading volume

  • Domer knew who the Speaker of the House would be

  • Manifold.love

  • Manifold got coal for Christmas (and daily stock markets got killed)

  • Mad Scientists Theory of Government

  • "The Pivot" (Major economic changes)

  • Re-pivot (Sweepcash announced)

  • Un-pivot (Sweepcash ends)

  • TSLABull was wrong, TSLA did not reach 275 before 8/8

  • Yuna crushing sports markets with one stupid trick

  • Tumbles Financial Complex

  • When will Jimmy Carter die?

Smaller items

/SG/who-stole-the-painting-from-the-bet

Manifold criminal investigations: the community figured who it was and then the criminal bet herself up at the end

@strutheo Did they ever launch the spirit bomb?

@strutheo immolation definitely! but I think it should get rolled into a narrative of the pivot

(edited)

@jcb Thanks, great submission!

"Spindle" was related to the "traunch" meme right? I've kinda been putting stuff related to just 'rogue users/memes' in the lower category and trying to put things which impacted a lot of the site into the upper one but it's really arbitrary so ignore any meaning from that.

@Eliza Yeah, Spindle was I believe the originator of the traunch meme. Definitely in the lower category, a notable element/character of an era but not much of a story there. I agree with all your categorizations.

@jcb In a similar vein to spindle was @DrP who had markets on whether trump would be president by x date and bet yes making everyone think he might resolve yes. He'd always resolve no honorably at the end, however (before the days of re-resolving I think).

That user who was accidentally marked as a bot and got their own division in Silicon league

It's still there!

On further reflection this is not a set of stories...

Eliza being unusually dedicated about sumo and cycling markets
Does Yuna get a place?
That user who was accidentally marked as a bot and got their own division in Silicon league
Mira GPT-4 sudoku market
Manifold love, Bet on Love
Leagues that end 'randomly'
Sweepcash
MVP
Proof School
Not a story but Luigi Mangione had an account on this site



Before my time (in the “paying attention” sense) but I enjoyed this loan + Marcus’ amusing write-up afterwards for a look at Manifold culture:

Very obvious, but LK99.

The story of @MolbyDick and some of the biggest mana betting the site has ever seen

@Ziddletwix my single favorite bit of manifold lore is this market:

/JimHays/in-inside-out-2-will-riley-and-this

But I’m not sure anyone else is half as amused by it as I am (coii I’ll of write up that play by play at some point).

The Wolf of Manifold

Manifold falls in love with Jimmy Carter Death Markets (I can expand on this later perhaps, but for now I'm just listing heavy Manifold-centric things I've noticed in my time here)

Peter is overconfident in Pierre and silences the doubters (maybe this has too heavy overlap with the TFC?, but I think no, since it's only a sub-chapter of the TFC)

(edited)

@No_uh I like the JCDM part and it deserves a whole post. As far as the Canadian election it probably gets a side note in the TFC but unless there turn out to be further ramifications like changes to what creators are allowed to do in their markets...most of that will be just a blip.

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