Current in-game LK-99 Market Status: 45%

This market is a roleplaying game.

You are playing the role of Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI. You have control over billions of dollars and a legion of fiercely loyal underlings.

Your task is to use these vast resources to manipulate play money markets on Manifold. You’ve recently gotten quite addicted to the site, but you’ve made some bad bets. Now it’s time to manipulate world events to make those bets pay off!

Along the way, you can also acquire Assets which can help you achieve your goals and Liabilities which can cause interesting consequences.

You can make Mana on this market by betting on which Orders you think are likely to succeed or fail if attempted. If an Order is not attempted, it resolves NO at the end of the current episode (at the end of the in-game month or upon completion of the objective).

Episode 1: Floaty Rocks (August 2023)

You have bet tens of thousands of mana that the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025.

It is August 9th, 2023. The hype has begun to die down, the market is much lower than you bought in at.

Your current objective is to manipulate world events so that the market resolves YES before the end of the month, or failing that to make the market price rise as much as possible so that you can sell your shares for profit.

Game Overview

Answers in this market are Orders that Sam will issue to his underlings in order to advance his Goals, reduce his Liabilities, and gain Assets.

Orders are voted on by market participants, with the highest voted orders executing first. When an order is executed, two virtual Order Dice are rolled using @FairlyRandom. High rolls mean you acquire Assets and low rolls meaning you acquire Liabilities.

You can submit any order as an answer, but it must be a single order. If your plan has multiple steps, that means you need to submit multiple orders.

Difficulty Class

When an order is added to the market, I will assign it a Difficulty Class so that everyone knows how hard it is for your underlings to succeed at that order. The Difficulty Class is a number between 1 and 100.

If either of the Order Dice roll below the DC, I will add to the list of Sam’s Liabilities. If either of the Order Dice roll above the DC, I will add to the list of Sam’s Assets. If the Order Dice roll both above and below the DC, Sam will gain both an Asset and a Liability.

Voting

The number of users who hold YES in an order is the number of votes that that order has to be executed. When I have time to advance the market, I will check which option has the most votes and then select that order for execution.

After I do so, I will assign it Order Dice based on the current in-game situation and announce in a comment that those dice are about to be rolled to execute the order.

I’ll allow some time for new trades on this information, and then either roll the dice myself or let the player who submitted the Order do it if they are online.

Order Dice

When an order is chosen for execution it will be assigned two Order Dice.

The OD are virtual dice that will be rolled using @FairlyRandom. The dice are 2D8 by default, but range from D1 to D100.

If you are giving an order that is well thought through and takes advantage of your Assets, then you’ll get larger Dice. If your order might be hindered by your Liabilities, you’ll get smaller dice. You might also get one larger die and one smaller die.

You know the DC of an option before it is executed, but the OD aren’t known until an option is selected for execution.

Order Resolution

An order resolves YES if it is executed and at least one of the Order Dice rolls equal to or higher than the Difficulty Class.

An order resolves NO if it is executed and none of the Order Dice rolls equal to or higher than the Difficulty Class.

If an episode ends without an order having been executed, it resolves NO.

There are also meta options in this market, which are not orders but rather bets about how the game will go. Feel free to submit these too, I will resolve them as they do or don't occur.

Known Current Assets

• Lots of Real Money (in OAI discretionary spending budget)

• One Million Dollars in sports gambling profit

• A Second Million Dollars from selling a Banksy

• Lots of Play Money (mostly locked up in bad bets)

• A Legion of Loyal Employees (as long as you pay them)

• GPT-4 (publicly released LLM)

• DALLE-2 (publicly released image generator)

• GPT-4.5 (secret advanced LLM)

• SORA (no-longer6secret advanced video generator)

• Voice Engine (secret advanced voice synthesizer)

• Greg Brockman (OpenAI President and sole loyal board member)

• Varda Aerospspace

• Alt account: "Roon"

Known Current Liabilities

• A treacherous Board of Directors (D’angelo, Toner, McCauley, Sutskever)

• A long list rivals at other companies (Musk, Amodei, Hassabis, Zuckerberg)

• A secret contract legally signing your immortal soul to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella

• A strange sense of honor which prevents you from just buying Manifold or directly bribing market creators, moderators, or admins

• A lack of consistent candor

• Jimmy Apples, unauthorized information leaker

• Public Deepfake Paranoia

• Elon Musk is suing you

Change Notes

This is a playtest, so the rules will no doubt need to be updated. Feel free to leave any suggestions below! If the rules change, I will list those changes here.