Will the USA become a province of Pakistan?

100Ṁ53k

2026

chance

ALL

Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Disputed Status Resolution Clarification
- If the USA is incorporated as a disputed territory rather than an official province of Pakistan, the market will resolve to no.
- The market will only potentially resolve in favor if the USA is officially designated as a province alongside provinces such as Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan.

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I am feeling very offended by everyone buying no. I worked really hard on this market and it hurts me that so many people are spitting in my face.

@AUTOMATA I am hearing that all NO holders will be banned from the Pakistani Press Briefings

bought Ṁ10 YES

Undervalued

Okay, I think I get the joke, this is a satire of Trump being confident that Canada will become "the 51st state"

@digory digory more like diddly 💀

@AUTOMATA what in the world?

@AUTOMATA

@bens father works for the US State Dept., He told me "I'd say there's still a 20-ish percent chance we don't become a province of Pakistan, so I wouldn't bet all my life's savings on it."

Just passing it on...

India shouldn't feel bad really, they will have the US as their neighbours. Its a win-win on all fronts

bought Ṁ50 YES

Here I was thinking all this time that the opposite was true. Thank you for opening my mind to alternate and inevitable realities. Therefore I promptly bought YES

I love this market

hello ia m prgnan vsihak samier

Huh

No, but solely because Zapatistas will beat them to it

Rebel Zapatista Autonomous Municipalities - Wikipedia

Sure. If the donation is “meaningful” enough. It’s all for sale.

bought Ṁ350 NO

this is one of the most ludicrous markets I have ever seen in all of Manifold, safe to say

@duck_master shut up

Temporarily unlisting this market, so this isn't the first market people see when they log on to Manifold...

@SG who do you think you are? If the people want to bet on this, allow them to.

@SG 1984

@AUTOMATA I would like to clarify the resolution criteria. Please respond at the earliest convenience.

My lawyers have been researching this market all night. They inform me that according to Wikipedia, the "administrative units" of Pakistan currently comprise:

four provinces, one federal territory, and two disputed territories: the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan; the Islamabad Capital Territory; and the administrative territories of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit–Baltistan.

If the USA becomes an additional "province" of Pakistan alongside Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, & Balochistan, resolution is simple. However, if the USA becomes part of Pakistan but instead as a "disputed territory", along with "Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit–Baltistan", how will this market resolve?

@Ziddletwix Pakistan would swiftly resolve any issues surrounding a disputed status. In the unlikely event that America is not incorporated as an official province, the market would resolve to no.