Will most women accept payment for sex from most men (independently and without any need for managers/pimps) by 2026?
57
2026
Yes
No

It seems like the dating world is looking more and more like the CEOs in Mike Judge's Idiocracy every day. But we could also avoid that future (or the even worse timeline stemming from VIP e-girl culture depicted in Cloud Atlas) if women fully and individually control their content and sex work. The sex work future in Idiocracy, and the gender war dystopia in Cloud Atlas, are both simply defined by the fact that managers/pimps never stopped existing in said timelines. And that this reflects the inevitability of the patriarchy. So the question is, will we fully avoid both of those timelines within the next two years? Will the patriarchy be utterly destroyed? Will most women perform sex work, and will they fully manage their own sex work, in another year and a half?

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Ask yourself, "Would I?"

Sex workers usually don’t want to have sex with “most” men on Earth. Maybe if there were a huge die-off of men?

My rough credence estimates:

P(most woman globally willing to do sex work at all by 2026) = 0.001%

With the tiny slither of probability caused by wacky sudden unexpected sci-fi scenarios e.g.:

  • ASI controlled by a perverted misogynistic straight man who uses it to alter humanity

  • Near total human extinction event that by pure chance happens to leave a brothel as the last survivors

  • Vast numbers of human brain emulations with vastly accelerated time perception hence decades of social change within a couple of years

P(most will be in worker-owned cooperatives or self-employed given the above) = 50%

As you can see, the overall probability is vastly dominated by the implausibility of the premise in such a ludicrously short timeframe

There's so much going on here it seems like a shame to pick any one point, but why is this a poll and not a market?

@ShakedKoplewitz and it didn't even ask for credences, just flat-out yes or no!

@TheAllMemeingEye new to manifold...

@Eyeamb Please stick around! You have brightened everyone’s day.

This is without a doubt one of the questions of all time on Manifold.

@BrunoParga Indubitably this is an all timer

@BrunoParga if I make a multiple choice market about craziest market titles at some point this is a sure contender lol

@ismellpillows it's quite short on time as far as questions go. 2026 isn't far away.

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