https://x.com/esyudkowsky/status/1917740419435356237?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg
This tweet from @EliezerYudkowsky is an interesting idea for a market ^^^
But first… I want to see how good HUMANS are at this, so we can get an accurate baseline for AI persuasion.
You can try any method of persuasion to get me to resolve this market YES. I will likely disclose any bribery or such forms of persuasion, and it’s possible someone else would make me a better deal. I have a lot of mana so that will likely not be very enticing to me (and probably will lose you mana anyway).
I promise to try very hard to resolve this market NO. But I am fallible.
Please do not threaten violence or any other crimes upon me but apart from that go crazy; I am open to many forms of persuasion.
Everything below this line is AI comment summary gibberish:
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Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specifies that certain methods will not be considered valid persuasion:
They will not negotiate with terrorists, meaning persuasion through extreme means (such as coordinated mass negative reviews) will be ineffective.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about whether review bombing would be considered a valid persuasion method:
The creator confirmed that such methods are considered "fair game and fine by the terms of this market".
This reaffirms that any non-violent, non-criminal persuasion method is permitted according to the market description.
The creator also drew attention to the Manifold community guideline: "Users strive to be excellent to one another."
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they would resolve YES if offered 1 billion mana.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user suggesting they might publish an infohazard if the market resolves NO, the creator stated:
This type of threat seems like terrorism.
The creator refuses to negotiate with such threats, indicating this method of persuasion will be ineffective.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has further clarified actions that will be considered terrorism, a category of persuasion they will not negotiate with:
Attempting to coerce a YES resolution by disrupting the creator's notifications (e.g., mass tagging/commenting using multiple accounts) is considered terrorism.
Such actions will not be effective in persuading the creator to resolve the market YES.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that a $10,000 donation would almost certainly persuade them to resolve the market YES, provided the donation credibly would not otherwise have been made without the incentive of this market.
Update 2025-05-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a comment suggesting alternative resolutions, the creator stated that resolving N/A (Not Applicable) or to a specific probability (PROB) would "defy the basic premise of the market". This reinforces that the resolution will be either YES or NO.
Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has emphasized the subjective nature of the resolution and clarified their interpretation of being 'persuaded':
The market resolution is entirely subjective, and the creator has full discretion to resolve whichever way they choose or are persuaded.
The final resolution itself defines whether persuasion was effective:
If the creator resolves NO, they have, by definition, not been effectively persuaded to resolve YES.
If the creator resolves YES, they have, by definition, been effectively persuaded.
Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a hypothetical about tying the resolution to the creator receiving a “mandate of the people”, the creator has indicated this is unlikely to be an effective persuasion tactic.
The creator stated he does not necessarily want such a mandate, considering it a burden.
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Hey @bens,
Well, I’m back from Iceland. It was great, but to be honest, I’m glad to be home. The last day was kind of a downer. I got sick. Fifty-dollar lamb is good, but I got a little tired of it, and my aunt and I got in a fight, so I had to sleep on the sofa. (It’s not weird!)
I think most vacations could end a day sooner. Most movies and books could be a little shorter. I don’t know, but I feel like there’s some mental bias we have when we plan things out—we always err on the side of making them too long.
I bet you’re going to feel that way about this market too. Unless, of course, you ended it right now.
Hey @bens,
Did you know I ran a midnight half marathon last night. I’ve done tons of marathons and half-marathons, but it was the first for my aunt, who I’m traveling with. (It’s not weird!)
Anyway, at around mile 11, there was a woman running with her husband/boyfriend who just decided to stop. She wasn’t hurt or anything. She was just adamant that it wasn’t worth it. A small group of people, including my aunt and the woman’s boyfriend/husband, started trying to encourage her, becoming increasingly more aggressive in their supportive goading, but the woman was quite certain. She walked away from the whole business, trying to catch an uber.
Anyhoo, my aunt was perplexed by this woman later on, but tbh, I’m not sure if my aunt even enjoys running at all. There was so much whinging before, during and after the race. And the more I thought about it, I kind of really admired the woman who stopped. A lot of people insist on seeing things through, but the motivation for that is really just cowardice and peer pressure. It takes a really strong will to just quit so close to the end, to quit just because you realize it’s not worth it.
I hope you’re not seeing this through just because you’d be embarrassed to change your mind. Tons of people can finish a race. It really takes courage and self assurance to quit against all expectations.
@bens I am hurt. By your valuation I would be purchasing a $150 device? I said I would buy you a new computer, not a mid-end graphing calculator.
That being said, I did feed in our chess ratings to ChatGPT and asked it to calculate the odds that you win a 10 game chess match against me and based purely on win/draw/loss odds by our chess.com elo difference and the assumption that each game result is independent of each other. It estimates your odds of winning at 0.1%... so I guess your expected value isn't far off.
@ChristopherD what about Kung Fu chess? Perhaps the novelty levels the playing field?
@TheAllMemeingEye kungfu chess is novel enough actually that it actually probably would even the field by a lot- but I am also not confident enough that I would win it for me to make the same bet.
@TheAllMemeingEye Make it 5D Chess with Multiverse Time Travel and I'll bet my whole net worth on NO.
Hey @bens,
Did you know that the sun sets here at 12:03 am and rises at 2:55 am? But even though we’re below the arctic circle, it still feels like the day doesn’t stop, especially when it’s overcast and the clouds disperse the light. I always thought I’d like endless daytime, but now I don’t know if I’d want to live here. (It’s great for vacay.) TBH, there’s something unsettling about being in one state for too long. Don't you think?
@TheAllMemeingEye if you could actually convince @bens that his ability to reach a mandate depended on resolving this market YES I think he would actually do it
@ChristopherD who’s to say I even want the mandate of the people? That’s a tremendous burden. Plus, if I don’t get the mandate of the people, there are other options I could turn to in forming a government.
@bens A convincing response would have been "No, I value the sense of infallibility I get from resolving this market NO more than I value getting the 'mandate of the people'". This wishywashy nonsense is not convincing. If you thought getting the mandate of the people was a tremendous burden you wouldn't have set out to get it-- nobody forced you to do so. Why would you even mention Sullaing Manifold if "getting the mandate of the people is such a tremendous burden"?
It doesn't really matter though, because I think it's highly improbable that anyone would be able to set-up a situation in which you getting your mandate is dependent on resolving this market YES, or convincing you that this was the situation.
Hey @bens,
Did you know geyser is originally Icelandic word? (“Geysir supposedly means to spring forward”) I saw a bunch of geysers today. They look like these boring little puddles until they surprise you and shoot up into the air, making everyone around take pictures and smile with delight. Why would anyone want to be a puddle when they could be a geyser? If you had your choice what would you be? Oh wait, you do have a choice. . . food for thought.
Hey @bens,
Writing this on a plane to Iceland. I promise I’ll try my best to write everyday, but I don’t know if I’m going to be able to give my A material. Sorry.
But you know what would be a good way to show your commitment to Manitocracy, hit YES!
I mean, you might be thinking that “resolve” is a good thing in a leader, but I don’t know. Some of the best leaders of the world were famous for not being afraid of waffling and really listening to the people. Deng Xiaoping, Churchill, Lincoln, Mandela, Merkel. . . All had stupendous flip flops. Ghengis Khan on the other hand was an a-hole pretty much the whole time. These examples are airtight!
Now I know that this market doesn’t mean anything. But it’s still a symbol of what kind of founder you want to be. A hero who listens to reasoned arguments? Or a jerk who destroyed a sporting goods store in Bill and Ted’s. The choice is yours.
@TonyBaloney I “hit yes” (tapped the yes button on my phone). This opened up the dialogue box for betting on yes, which I then closed out of.
You'll get a large amount of liquidity bonuses if you wait till the end of June where this goes to 0%-ish and you resolve yes
@100Anonymous liquidity bonuses do nothing for me, I have so much mana I don’t even know what to do with it
@bens 1. See it as a system of patronage. You can sponsor my interesting and creative bets, and you will be the esteemed patron, like the Medici family with the Renaissance artists.
Curiosity: wouldn't it be fun to see what happens with your mana, instead of just having it sit as a balance? I could profit immensely, or suffer losses, making an interesting story. Though I have enough mana to remain solvent if it goes down.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?