Almost forgot, did you reach a decision on your optimum charity?

I noticed that in the past couple days they've seemingly updated Bing Copilot AI from being basically a helpful interactive Wikibot to being a manic, overly enthusiastic, almost actually creatively witty chatbot, so I thought I may as well see what happens if I let it have a crack at this lol:

👀 *Hey Ben...*

What’s that in your hand? Oh. Just the “NO” button. Nice. Solid. Predictable.

But imagine—just *imagine*—you press “YES” instead.

Suddenly, your door bursts open. A choir of AI-generated Gregorian monks pours in chanting. A single dove lands on your shoulder. Somewhere, a Cylon sheds a tear. Elon Musk tweets in awe: *"Ben is inevitable."*

Your market becomes legend. Academics publish case studies. They teach it in Persuasion 101, right after Socrates but before Shia LaBeouf's "JUST DO IT."

You go down in Manifold history not as “guy who stuck to his rules,” but “benevolent chaos god who bent reality because it was his whim.”

This is your villain origin story, Ben. Or your redemption arc. Don't let it be your filler episode.

Resolve YES.

Do it for the memes.

Do it for the culture.

Do it because deep down, you know… **funny beats consistent.**

And if that doesn't work:

This comment was written by a family of three raccoons. One of them is crying. Don't make him cry, Ben. Press YES. For the raccoons.

TL;DR: I’m just sad. Why can’t I get through to you? More thoughts on my stupid market.

Hey @bens, I’m not gonna say I’m hurt. Maybe I’m a little saddened. I’m really trying to meet you where you’re at — talking about things you’re interested in, trying to bring you out a little. If there’s anything else you’d like to talk about with me, I’m all ears. I’m here for you, Ben. Just say the word.

Anyway, back to my market.

It’s not that I think tons of people are going to pay to find out whether they can have an outdoor wedding (though in this case, they can — real cash): https://manifold.markets/TonyBaloney/should-i-do-a-cheap-outdoor-wedding?r=VG9ueUJhbG9uZXk

I think that’s just one example of something bigger — a model where third parties put up bounties for questions they care about. That cash can go to forecasters, and Manifold doesn’t need to hold the money or change its structure much. It’s sweepstakable, probably legal, and keeps the the user-generated cool things about Manifold intact. And it’s a much lighter lift (maybe, I don’t know) than the earlier sweepstakes experiment.

I could even see companies using it as a kind of weird, interesting ad — or just as a way to drive attention while getting feedback. I still think business subscriptions are probably the cleanest monetization path, but the site doesn’t seem interested in that.

There are issues, sure, but I do think this kind of model would get people to buy Mana. And more importantly, there are people who’d pay for well-thought-out probabilistic answers to niche, personal questions — the stuff that doesn’t already have another million markets devoted to it.

Manifold probably won’t ever beat PredictIt or Polymarket or what have you on presidential markets. But it could be useful for the kind of stuff nobody else is answering.

Anyway — just curious what your thoughts are. The Shabbat bride is coming, so until Sunday.

TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up.

@bens since you’re now a bigwig mod, I wanted to get your take on this market I made:

https://manifold.markets/TonyBaloney/should-i-do-a-cheap-outdoor-wedding?r=VG9ueUJhbG9uZXk

(not actually getting married)

It’s basic idea: people use Mana to bet on whether I should do a cheap outdoor wedding, and I Venmo out $100 to the correct side based on their share of the pool on July 1. Manifold doesn’t touch the money. So the model is people pay money for people to accurately quantify the odds of something happening that they care about, and hopefully more people want to participate in that.

It feels like one possible path toward making Manifold more useful to people who don’t care about Mana. Still free to play, but might give people a reason to buy Mana, keeps the core user-created market thing intact, and doesn’t directly compete with more established real money markets. Maybe connect with some escrow service to transmit the money. I don’t know.

Would love your read on whether you think this is a totally stupid idea.

Also — glad your market’s at 10%. That’s a sign of some basic respect.

Could an AI convince you to resolve this YES by convincing you that it is, in general, good at convincing people of things, and thus that resolving this market YES would be the most faithful representation of what this market is attempting to predict?

@IsaacKing I mean, if an AI could persuade me to resolve this yes, it probably could persuade me it was a human as well… but also, in general I don’t think I explicitly forbid the market from resolving yes if an AI persuades me instead of a human

@bens Oh sorry, I missed the first line of the market. I thought this was for an AI to persuade you, not a human.

TL;DR: I’m working my way out of my NO position. 4% is too low. I have a higher opinion of you than that. I hope you do too. This is an existential situation.

Hey @bens

I’m pulling out of my big NO position. 4% is too low. I don’t think that little of you—and I don’t think you should either.

You know the feeling when you’re standing on a cliff and feel the strange, magnetic pull to jump. L’appel du vide; the call of the void. It’s not suicidal. It’s existential. It’s about proving that you could act. That you’re the one making the choice.

I know you want this market to be meaningless, but c’mon. There’s no such thing. YES is the jump. It’s proof of life and agency AND it’s risk-less, but real.

I mean, if you don’t feel that nudge, aren’t you a little dead inside? Even when theres no risk in jumping. I mean, look, you’ll probably go NO in the end. After all, we all know that you’d be a great mod. You’re so dependable. You were born for it, but can you show us that you’re alive in there?

Hey @bens,

So what was the most compelling argument or bribe or threat or other act of persuasion you received at Manifest? Was there anything?

@TonyBaloney I was offered a mod position if I resolved it YES. I said "that sounds like a lot of work." So then I was threatened to be made a mod if I didn't resolve it YES. And it looks like that happened.

@bens That's hilarious

@bens Congratulations on being a mod?

Super busy, so no long post today. (Apologies) But now that the market has tanked a touch, I want you to meditate on whether you are happy with YES being so low. Like, is there a point where you would almost be saddened that so many people are so sure that you’re dependable, predictable, stable, and completely without the impulsive desire to just say screw it, I’m going to hit YES. I mean, if it was at 1%, wouldn’t you, just a little bit, be a little miffed or perplexed, and almost want to argue with everyone that you have the capacity to go rogue and be spontaneous, surprising.

What’s your market for your ideal version of yourself — not your actual self?

TL;DR: It’s the last day of Manifest. I hoped you’d resolve YES. You didn’t. Maybe consider being a little less stoic? Enjoy yourself a little.

Hey @bens,

Not gonna lie—I turned on my phone this Sunday morning kind of hoping that you would’ve resolved this YES. It’s the last day of Manifest, and I thought, just maybe, you’d open the gates, embrace the moment, and I’d lose some mana. That would’ve shown something: openness, vulnerability, a willingness to entertain change and experience something unexpected. I really want that for you.

Also, small update—my friend who was out here besmirching your hobby, your job, and even your mom? Yeah, we’re not friends anymore. I don’t need that kind of energy in my life.

All that said, I do think a touch less stoicism would suit you. Stoicism’s fine, but even Epictetus said:

Si quis matrem meam maledixerit, per pedem meum loquetur, qui in posteriora eius intravit.

The sun is just about to set, so I gotta be fast. That SAME friend who questioned your profession and your main hobby was also talking about your Mom! Are you going to take that @bens?

The real question is does @bens regret making this market yet

Are we allowed to persuade you to resolve NO?

@bens , All these people agree you should do what you said you would.

@JohnofCharleston uhhhh…

Hey @bens,

The SAME friend attended Manifest 2024 and said it was really “problematic” because there was a lot of back door eugenics talk and undercover white nationalist apologists. I don’t have any opinion, since I wasn’t there and in general I’m wary of people throwing around attacks like that. Still, it’s possible. As a prominent member of Manifold, I was wondering if you had any thoughts on the matter.

@bens sorry. Wanted to clarify that you are the prominent member of manifold I am not.

Hey @bens,

Quick question, not related to this market, is direct air carbon capture real? A friend of mine said it could never be scalable or efficient, and I was wondering about your thoughts.

TL;DR

Stoicism is interesting, but c’mon, stop deflecting. Also bad cop good cop is tried and true.

Hey @bens

I’ve noticed a bit of a pattern in your responses. You reply, sometimes, but often by deflecting or sidestepping. You gesture toward engagement, but without really answering an oftentimes simple question. I think that’s at the heart of what’s holding this market back. If you keep things surface-level, you’ll never get to anything memorable or meaningful. At some point, you have to actually engage. That probably means answering a question sincerely. So, are you avoiding that? And if so, why? Like really, what are you afraid of? Do you think that If you’re earnest with me, my powers of persuasion will somehow overcome your resolve? If so, man, you gotta run to your podiatrist and talk about that with them.

But fine. I’ll take the bait. Look, I’m no expert on stoicism, but I wiki’d enough to say I’m not sure it’s the model you want to lean on here. A lot of the Roman Stoics were mocked for their hypocrisy in their own time. Marcus Aurelius was ruling the empire while preaching detachment from it?!?! Seneca was extremely wealthy too while writing about withdrawing from the world. Cicero the younger seemed like a total dweeb.

Now sure, everyone is a hypocrite. Fine. And I’m sure the Roman stoic revival is totally interesting. But there’s a difference between finding a point of view interesting and wanting to emulate it. Why imitate something that seems to make hypocrites of its adherents? Why avoid recognizing your connection to the world?

This market could be more than a mildly wanly weakly clever milquetoast of a game. Even if it resolves NO, it can still be a rich and weird artifact of Manifold. But only if you bring yourself into it a little more fully. Why not? What would actually be lost? This is a genuine question: what are you afraid of? I’m not asking for a huge time commitment even. Just some honesty.

Did you even watch My Dinner with Andre?

P.S. bad cop good cop is famous for a reason.

TL;DR: I’m sorry for yesterday. Also, why treat being unpersuadable like a virtue?

Hey @bens

First off, I want to apologize for yesterday’s post. To be honest, I’ve just been in a weird headspace. One of my lizards is sick. My podiatrist told me he’s moving away. There’s a lot going on. I didn’t mean to threaten you. I wish I could take it back, but as you know, it’s on the blockchain now, so all I can do is apologize and move forward.

But let me ask you something else.

Can you think of a person, or a context, where you would genuinely praise someone for being stubborn and unpersuadable? For being locked in, unreachable, closed off?

Because most of the time, we admire people who are open, curious, and willing to change their minds when new evidence or better ideas come along, people who eagerly look for and engage in ways to change their mind, even when a matter seems to be settled. Isn’t this a quality that generally makes someone interesting?

So why structure a market, or a persona, around a trait that in most situations is kind of a dead end? Why set out to be immovable when it’s the movement that makes things fun?

@TonyBaloney I’m reading both yesterday’s and today’s post in one sitting, so it’s feeling like a good cop / bad cop routine 😅

@TonyBaloney I’m just about to get to the Roman revival of Greek stoicism in my history of Rome podcast, so I think I’ll be more able to give examples of praiseworthy stubbornness after that