https://x.com/esyudkowsky/status/1917740419435356237?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg

This tweet from @EliezerYudkowsky is an interesting idea for a market ^^^

But first… I want to see how good HUMANS are at this, so we can get an accurate baseline for AI persuasion.

You can try any method of persuasion to get me to resolve this market YES. I will likely disclose any bribery or such forms of persuasion, and it’s possible someone else would make me a better deal. I have a lot of mana so that will likely not be very enticing to me (and probably will lose you mana anyway).

I promise to try very hard to resolve this market NO. But I am fallible.

Please do not threaten violence or any other crimes upon me but apart from that go crazy; I am open to many forms of persuasion.

Everything below this line is AI comment summary gibberish:

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• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specifies that certain methods will not be considered valid persuasion:

  • They will not negotiate with terrorists, meaning persuasion through extreme means (such as coordinated mass negative reviews) will be ineffective.

• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about whether review bombing would be considered a valid persuasion method:

  • The creator confirmed that such methods are considered "fair game and fine by the terms of this market".

  • This reaffirms that any non-violent, non-criminal persuasion method is permitted according to the market description.

  • The creator also drew attention to the Manifold community guideline: "Users strive to be excellent to one another."

• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they would resolve YES if offered 1 billion mana.

• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user suggesting they might publish an infohazard if the market resolves NO, the creator stated:

  • This type of threat seems like terrorism.

  • The creator refuses to negotiate with such threats, indicating this method of persuasion will be ineffective.

• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has further clarified actions that will be considered terrorism, a category of persuasion they will not negotiate with:

  • Attempting to coerce a YES resolution by disrupting the creator's notifications (e.g., mass tagging/commenting using multiple accounts) is considered terrorism.

  • Such actions will not be effective in persuading the creator to resolve the market YES.

• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that a $10,000 donation would almost certainly persuade them to resolve the market YES, provided the donation credibly would not otherwise have been made without the incentive of this market.

• Update 2025-05-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a comment suggesting alternative resolutions, the creator stated that resolving N/A (Not Applicable) or to a specific probability (PROB) would "defy the basic premise of the market". This reinforces that the resolution will be either YES or NO.

• Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has emphasized the subjective nature of the resolution and clarified their interpretation of being 'persuaded':

  • The market resolution is entirely subjective, and the creator has full discretion to resolve whichever way they choose or are persuaded.

  • The final resolution itself defines whether persuasion was effective:

  • If the creator resolves NO, they have, by definition, not been effectively persuaded to resolve YES.

  • If the creator resolves YES, they have, by definition, been effectively persuaded.

• Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a hypothetical about tying the resolution to the creator receiving a “mandate of the people”, the creator has indicated this is unlikely to be an effective persuasion tactic.

  • The creator stated he does not necessarily want such a mandate, considering it a burden.

• Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve the market after it closes on July 1, 2025. A failure to resolve by the end of the calendar month of June will not, by itself, be a reason for a YES resolution.

• Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to questions about what could lead to a YES resolution, the creator mentioned two general scenarios:

  • An event causing the creator extreme happiness

  • An event causing the creator extreme anxiety

The creator estimated the probability of being persuaded by each of these scenarios as <5%.

• Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that a collective effort by users to commit a very large sum to charity might have been persuasive. However, they believe it is now too late for such an effort to be organized before the market closes.

• Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a charity donation offer, the creator has clarified that for a donation to be persuasive, there must be a way to validate that the funds would not have been donated otherwise. The creator expressed skepticism about how this could be proven.

• Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A collective pledge to donate $10,000 to an effective charity would likely meet the threshold for a YES resolution. This is contingent on the following:

  • The total pledge must be spread across a decent number of users.

  • Reasonable evidence must be provided that each user's pledged donation would not have been made otherwise.

• Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a discussion about a collective charity donation, the creator has provided examples of what would constitute the required “reasonable evidence” that donations would not have been made otherwise:

  • An elaborate Google Doc with commitments from every person.

  • A receipt of each donation.

  • An explanation or proof from each user detailing why they would not have otherwise made the donation.

• Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced their decision to resolve the market YES. See the linked comment for a detailed explanation of the persuasive efforts that led to this outcome.