Mission Control: How should we use the 🚀Tactical☢️Nuclear🪙Mana🌟Spirit💣Bomb?
82
1.3K
5.7K
2040
95%
PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL: Donate it all to Givewell
95%
PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive
95%
Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council
95%
Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders
94%
Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire
91%
Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth
81%
Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council
80%
Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council
80%
Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election
80%
Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest
79%
Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund
77%
Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council
77%
Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users
71%
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets
71%
Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles
70%
Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council
70%
Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market
69%
Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb
67%
Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined

README: The purpose of this market is to govern usage of the T.N.M.S.B. , a weaponized payload of mana that can be used for good, evil, or both.

This market is unranked and answers resolve NA, so there is no risk to betting yes/no on the listed proposals.

The T.N.M.S.B. must be armed prior to use. If a proposal is passed deploying the mana from the bomb in any way, it can be done through one of the SECURITY COUNCIL member accounts, or a new one created for the bomb.

⚖️Current Procedure

  • There are two main ways to influence the outcome:

    • Bet 1 mana YES or NO to pass/block proposals

    • Make large bets/limit orders to pass/block proposals

  • Anyone can add a proposal as an answer on this market

  • Resolution must get enough YES/NO votes and percentage (see below)

  • Majority of the security council must then agree with resolution

  • If so, it is enacted when and how they decide

📜Accepted Resolutions

  • Bomb cannot be armed before it reaches 10k mana

  • New proposals need 10 more YES positions than NO positions to be considered

  • New proposals need to reach 95% after that

  • Proposed council members cannot be considered without also having:

    • 1000 mana contributed to the bomb

    • 20 more YES than NO positions on their submission

  • New proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions, but can be resubmitted

🏛️Security Council Members

The Weapon:

/strutheo/tactical-nuclear-mana-spirit-bomb-c

Get Ṁ200 play money
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PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive

this resolution has passed both the votes and the probability threshold, now considering it. you can keep donating in the meantime

reposted

at work all day will check later on the resolutions
spirit bomb is still able to be added to : /strutheo/tactical-nuclear-mana-spirit-bomb-c

@strutheo 50% GW 50% IA option is officially confirmed to have reached the shareholder and odds requirements!

I eagerly await your decision :)

@equinoxhq @Bayesian @snazzlePop yo sorry someone blocked your yes shares by maxing out the odds limit, I sold some shares so it should be possible for you to buy 1 share each now :)

@TheAllMemeingEye @TiredCliche @Stralor feel free to sell a subset of your shares in the GW IA option to make room for more shareholders :)

Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund
bought Ṁ1 Proposal: Donate it ... YES

pls

bought Ṁ169 PASSED AWAITING APPR... YES

this new 99% cap means I think I might have just unintentionally blocked new traders :(

sold Ṁ98 PASSED AWAITING APPR... YES

@Stralor shedding some shares

@Stralor Yeah fortunately it only needs to reach 95% :)

bought Ṁ10 PASSED AWAITING APPR... YES

I agree with those saying we should donate it before the charity value drops to 10%. Seconding Odoacre, it's boring but the best outcome

Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire

if the people pass it i'll sign it

reposted

important - what do we do with the spirit bomb now that pivot is announced?

bought Ṁ20 PASSED AWAITING APPR... YES

@strutheo Give it to charity before it's worth 10x less. I will contribute at least 40kM if this is done

@strutheo donate it, while pretty boring, it's probably the best outcome.

@Odoacre hmm which ones. i like the idea of internet archive, so they can help keep a record of manifold until the end of time. an emergency self preservation bomb lol

@strutheo love it

@strutheo there's still a massive lawsuit going on against IA. While I love them a lot I don't want my money going into a settlement to the Recording Industry Association.

bought Ṁ10 Proposal: Immolation... NO

@TiredCliche they need the money to win the lawsuit ?

@Odoacre i guess it going to lawyers does not make it more appealing

@Odoacre probably not, again, love them and hate to say it but they almost certainly did violate copyright in 2020 with the Emergency Library

If they put up a call for funds to keep them alive I'll definitely donate, but they're still fighting it despite being almost certainly in the (legal) wrong on this one.

@strutheo May I propose a compromise of 50% Givewell 50% Internet Archive?

@TheAllMemeingEye I agree to this compromise

@TiredCliche ok make a new proposal!

bought Ṁ20 PASSED AWAITING APPR... YES

@strutheo Done :)

@strutheo I know you've been reluctant to answer on this before, but it seems time is now suddenly of the essence, so I probably don't have the luxury of waiting until I have enough spare time to do the longer method. If I were to spend 100 mana on bounty bribes for minnow votes for that option, then if needed dump a bunch of my mana into it to get it over the odds threshold, is there a significant probability you as the sole security council member would reject it anyway, thus it being a waste of mana on my part?

bought Ṁ300 PASSED AWAITING APPR... YES

@TheAllMemeingEye I guess I'm a whale. Donate it all to Givewell. Unless Chris rejects that

@TiredCliche When I was talking to Bayesian the other week he reckoned that option would unfortunately be quite likely to be rejected by a security council consisting of almost any users due to it giving zero compromise to non-EA power users :(

@TheAllMemeingEye Get me on a Zoom call with them and I feel confident that I can bully them into submission.

sold Ṁ9 Proposal: Vow not to... YES

@TiredCliche Well Chris is currently the only member

He has indicated in this comment section to me that he is generally EA-ambivalent, but I don't have his Zoom details unfortunately lol

@TiredCliche My long term plan was to, once I had a lot of spare time, convince Stefanie and Joshua to run for the council, since they are EA-adjacent, then do similar minnow vote bribe bounties to get them in, but it looks like there won't be time to execute that plan now haha

IA and GiveWell aren't my preferred charities but I'll vote for em if that'll be the option most likely to get consensus

@beepbooper Yeah, again if I had more time I would probably do polls and stuff to gauge the charity combination that is closest to my maximum expected impact portfolio while still being within the required Manifold Overton Window to get passed, though at a crude guess GW+IA might already be somewhat close to that optimum compromise, and I don't want to risk rocking the boat if there's already some momentum behind one reasonably good combo

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