README: The purpose of this market is to govern usage of the T.N.M.S.B. , a weaponized payload of mana that can be used for good, evil, or both.
This market is unranked and answers resolve NA, so there is no risk to betting yes/no on the listed proposals.
The T.N.M.S.B. must be armed prior to use. If a proposal is passed deploying the mana from the bomb in any way, it can be done through one of the SECURITY COUNCIL member accounts, or a new one created for the bomb.
⚖️Current Procedure
There are two main ways to influence the outcome:
Bet 1 mana YES or NO to pass/block proposals
Make large bets/limit orders to pass/block proposals
Anyone can add a proposal as an answer on this market
Resolution must get enough YES/NO votes and percentage (see below)
Majority of the security council must then agree with resolution
If so, it is enacted when and how they decide
📜Accepted Resolutions
Bomb cannot be armed before it reaches 10k mana
New proposals need 10 more YES positions than NO positions to be considered
New proposals need to reach 95% after that
Proposed council members cannot be considered without also having:
1000 mana contributed to the bomb
20 more YES than NO positions on their submission
New proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions, but can be resubmitted
🏛️Security Council Members
TBD
The Weapon:
Related questions
leaving this here for some whale to find https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-tacticalnuclearmanaspiritb-33467ea37f12
at work all day will check later on the resolutions
spirit bomb is still able to be added to : /strutheo/tactical-nuclear-mana-spirit-bomb-c
@strutheo 50% GW 50% IA option is officially confirmed to have reached the shareholder and odds requirements!
I eagerly await your decision :)
@equinoxhq @Bayesian @snazzlePop yo sorry someone blocked your yes shares by maxing out the odds limit, I sold some shares so it should be possible for you to buy 1 share each now :)
@TheAllMemeingEye @TiredCliche @Stralor feel free to sell a subset of your shares in the GW IA option to make room for more shareholders :)
@strutheo Give it to charity before it's worth 10x less. I will contribute at least 40kM if this is done
@Odoacre hmm which ones. i like the idea of internet archive, so they can help keep a record of manifold until the end of time. an emergency self preservation bomb lol
@strutheo there's still a massive lawsuit going on against IA. While I love them a lot I don't want my money going into a settlement to the Recording Industry Association.
@Odoacre probably not, again, love them and hate to say it but they almost certainly did violate copyright in 2020 with the Emergency Library
If they put up a call for funds to keep them alive I'll definitely donate, but they're still fighting it despite being almost certainly in the (legal) wrong on this one.
@strutheo I know you've been reluctant to answer on this before, but it seems time is now suddenly of the essence, so I probably don't have the luxury of waiting until I have enough spare time to do the longer method. If I were to spend 100 mana on bounty bribes for minnow votes for that option, then if needed dump a bunch of my mana into it to get it over the odds threshold, is there a significant probability you as the sole security council member would reject it anyway, thus it being a waste of mana on my part?
@TheAllMemeingEye I guess I'm a whale. Donate it all to Givewell. Unless Chris rejects that
@TiredCliche When I was talking to Bayesian the other week he reckoned that option would unfortunately be quite likely to be rejected by a security council consisting of almost any users due to it giving zero compromise to non-EA power users :(
@TheAllMemeingEye Get me on a Zoom call with them and I feel confident that I can bully them into submission.
@TiredCliche Well Chris is currently the only member
He has indicated in this comment section to me that he is generally EA-ambivalent, but I don't have his Zoom details unfortunately lol
@TiredCliche My long term plan was to, once I had a lot of spare time, convince Stefanie and Joshua to run for the council, since they are EA-adjacent, then do similar minnow vote bribe bounties to get them in, but it looks like there won't be time to execute that plan now haha
@beepbooper Yeah, again if I had more time I would probably do polls and stuff to gauge the charity combination that is closest to my maximum expected impact portfolio while still being within the required Manifold Overton Window to get passed, though at a crude guess GW+IA might already be somewhat close to that optimum compromise, and I don't want to risk rocking the boat if there's already some momentum behind one reasonably good combo