https://x.com/jasonwilde108/status/1929310791489954092?s=46

@Ansel I didn’t read this whole thing but this shows a lack of basic knowledge.

@JasonQ Yeah agree he's conflating two different concepts there. Doesn't mean the whole report is wrong, or mean anything at all about the report itself in fact. The report should be judged on its own merits, not on the analytical skills of a guy on the internet who got excited about it.

@Ansel my base assumption is that if a more careful analysis from people who know what they are talking about supported the wild assertions he jumps to, you’d post that rather than some confused guy. That does tell me information about the report.

Easy YES. Pete Hegseth would have yapped to his wife about it already.

Does anyone know how are loans calculated today? I bought 10k, but my daily loan did not increased. Are they now capped? Per market or globally?

I am asking here specifically, because loans have big impact on price here.

(108140)

@Irigi the loan system is very generous (with minimal "risk management"/oversight), but the maximum loan you can receive for any single market is 5% of your net worth. Your position this market is 117% of your net worth, & your current loan on this market is 88% of your net worth, so that means you can't receive further loans on this market (but you will still receive loans normally on all the other markets on the site—loans aren't intended to endlessly increase leverage for people betting on a single market).

(the per-market 5% of nw cap should be added to the UI)

there's also a cap on the total leverage per account that blocks new loans entirely, but it's extremely high and i don't think you're close to reaching it.

@Ziddletwix how do you know how big Irigi's current loan on this market is? Loans have always seemed quite opaque to me and I'd be keen to monitor my own loans more closely and keep track of which markets I can get more leverage on and which I can't

@Ziddletwix Thank you for the explanation. I was not complaining, I just want to update my knowledge on how the system works now and act accordingly. I think the cap per market is a good thing.

@Ziddletwix Btw. might be a nice feature to show user on what market they reached the loan cap. (Usually, they want to take that into account).

@Irigi agreed! It’s under explained and that’d be a good feature

@Fion you can see the loan info for each market if you click to see more under the trades tab of their profile (the info is probably generally available in the API but that’s how you check in the UI)

@Ziddletwix wait... how is it under the trades tab? I don't see that column option

@bens it’s not a column. You need to click to expand the trade itself

Do unidentified "flying" interstellar objects count for the purposes of this market?
https://thebsdetector.substack.com/p/one-aliens-trash-is-another-aliens

@bens

I think we’d know any candidates for that gray area by now.

This is so funny

@metacontrarian @JonasVollmer if you're looking for a free money volatility printer, I can recommend a better market, but after reading AI-2027 I think you might not like it XD

https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener?r=YmVucw

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2025/mar/12/age-of-disclosure-ufo-documentary

So it looks like the film got rave reviews. Every review (except one) basically said that there is almost no question that the stuff is true.

That said, a lot of the people in the film also said they were trying to "protect classified information" and "national security."

The US government has shown itself to be capable now of nothing but enormous wealth destruction and consigning millions into poverty - both here and around the world. In terms of overall scale, the United States right now might be the most incompetent organization in world history. It will continue to destroy people's lives with tariffs and deportations until eventually unemployment rises so high and the stock market falls so low that $5 trillion in debt is required in a new round of bailouts. It's not even like a functioning dictatorship that tries to amass wealth - Elon Musk lost 6.66% of his entire net worth just today alone.

Thus, while I have zero doubt now that non-human intelligence exists, I also have zero confidence in the United States government to organize an investigation into this topic (or any other), and I also do not believe that @Joshua will resolve to NO unless there is some official policy change by the United States.

I'm going to watch for a week or two to see if this film gets picked up by a major motion picture studio for imminent release. If not, then I'm going to unload my NO position in this market.

@SteveSokolowski You may be over-updating on the absence of negatively valanced critical reviews. I checked to see if I could watch the film and it isn't available online, although I did find a decent critical review already: https://www.indiewire.com/criticism/movies/the-age-of-disclosure-review-sxsw-alien-documentary-1235100024/

Sadly it's not really trying to engage with the substance of the evidence or do a thorough analysis, but at any rate, there's an example of a reasonable sounding non-convinced viewer. It wasn't hard to find, and I assume if the film ends up widely available/talked about, you'd see a much more varied/critical reception.

@DavidHiggs From what I have read about the film, it focuses entirely on the government's knowledge of non-human intelligence and the director intentionally cut or didn't film parts about other aspects of the phenomenon, like the implausibility of the consistency of abduction stories. I can understand his rationale for that, because while I do think that most people tell the truth about their experiences, accidentally including even one person who is lying would destroy the film even if 99% turns out to be correct.

Whatever the case, your argument doesn't change my attitude here towards this market. I don't think the United States government will remain a functioning organization capable of performing research or scientific investigations for much longer, if it even is at this point.

I believe that even if pieces of a craft appear somehow, some scientist will perform an analysis of the materials, the analysis will show that the materials are unknown (because what else could it show), and say there is "no evidence" of extraterrestrial origin. Images of a government facility in the AI era are no longer proof of anything. And the government will never give tours to the general public of a facility where these things are stored.

Most importantly, with the tariffs and firings/rehirings, the government has lost its credibility and nobody, including me, believes anything official the government puts out including stating that NHI exists. I wouldn't even believe a statement saying that tariffs are off the table.

So basically, there isn't a way that @Joshua will ever believe that this can be true, because the government can't be trusted. It's not about the truth. It's time to get out at breakeven (95%) and call it a day.

@SteveSokolowski As a bit of an aside: you keep mentioning @Joshua as if this question depends on his judgement, but the question resolves based on the publicly reported outcome of the bet between Eliezer Yudkowsky and RatsWrongAboutUAP.

https://people.com/director-groundbreaking-ufo-doc-says-what-he-learned-left-him-rattled-11692704

Tomorrow is the day of truth for this topic.

The issue anymore isn't what's true, it's whether people are going to listen. If this movie doesn't gain traction, then I think this market is unlikely to resolve YES based on human findings. Yes, we could wait for Speilberg's movie, but that one is a "fiction based on reality" and isn't a documentary.

Should The Age of Disclosure fail to move the needle, then I think that we probably only get to NO when a superintelligence infers it with using a different path of reasoning that convinces more people. I do think we get superintelligence before the market resolves, but again, humans would have to actually believe the output from the prompt.

@SteveSokolowski

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500#vo46jua2swm