Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
833
10kṀ7.4m2028
92%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Original Lesswrong thread here.
Original tweet here:
Unlinked market with shorter timeframes here: /Joshua/when-will-we-know-that-any-past-ufo
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)
49% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?
9% chance
Will I gain any significant insight from reading Eliezer Yudkowsky's new book?
36% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
35% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
3% chance
Will I significantly deconvert Eliezer Yudkowsky from Bayesianism by the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Nobel peace prize before 2100?
8% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
19% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?
5% chance