Experts will agree that a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023
23
104
30k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

This market rezolves to YES if experts agree that a derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL tranche correction will happen by new years day, 2023.

The metric I will use to determine that is pretty zimple: consensus! Post tweets, screenshots of discord communications, substack comments, facebook posts, and other social media commentary containing the words "a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL tranche correction [may or will] happen by new years day, 2023." The more of them there are, and the more gravitas each poster has, the more likely I am to rezolve the market YES.


EDIT: of course it will rezolve "no" If the expert consensus points the other way! For each pozt that says "a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL tranche correction [probably won't or won't] happen by new years day, 2023." I'll be more inclined to rezolve the other way.

If the expert consensus appearz mixed, I'll probably just N/A the market, or resolve by one of them nifty probability things.

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In what iz SURELY the most important question ever pozed in the prediction market space, the experts have concluded there WILL NOT BE a derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL Tranche correction by January 1st, 2023...in fact, many of these expertz have concluded there will NEVER Be one.

It appears there was NOT a derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL Tranche correction yezterday, so those experts were correct & the market predicted their correctness.

This stands as a MIGHTY TESTIMENT of the ability of prediction markets to OUT PERFORM THE EXPERTS THEMSELVES, turning RANK CONFUSION and PERVERTED, SWEATY CHAOS into BLINDING LAVENDER-SCENTED CERTAINTY :

predicted NO

@Spindle I've learned my lesson and I'll never doubt my experts or their predictions again.

@Mira u should have just truzted the market

sold Ṁ1,333 of YES

This is the last time I bet in a meme market

bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

@DeanValentine I like to assume my bets in any meme market are effectively donated to charity as soon as I make them. It's kind of like a donor lottery, except with an element of skill/memes in who wins the lottery to decide where the donations go.

@jack I know, but it still ruins my profit total on my profile page ;-;

predicted NO

@DeanValentine Yep, that part is sad. I have thought about splitting my serious and meme trading onto separate accounts so they don't interfere with each other, but that carries some annoyances and downsides so I haven't bothered.

sold Ṁ3,870 of NO

I think the optimal strategy is simple; just ensure you win on the meme markets. :)

@IsaacKing I'm too low IQ

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@DeanValentine Luckily Spindle put lots of liquidity into the pool, so if you wanted to change sides you still can .

@Mira u can't have a pool without liquidity!

bought Ṁ1,681 of NO

Impossible! The experts predicting majority differentiable market-to-market DODGEBALL trachea corrections were all frauds!

And a NEW wave of experts has appeared predicting NO! And they are the highest experts @Spindle listed, so no higher experts can appear.

It seems there is no further possibility for a tracche correction.

(note: The only expert moar credible than Eliezer Yudkowski is the superAI that he'z trying to defeat, the manifold markets team, or those FTX guyz, they seem to know what they're doing)

We are certainly the most experienced experts in all aspects of mark-to-market derivatives and longvol tranche corrections! And such a tranche correction happening by the end of the day is completely out of the question!

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I have reanalyzed the LONGVOL tranche data and discovered that the purported correction was a fraud! The junior tranche which supposedly experienced a correction on December 27 was actually manipulated by the fund accountants to profit off of their short options on the LONGVOL tranche! In fact, the tranche only dropped 8.6%, not reaching correction territory. And after extensive re-analysis with the corrected, non-fraudulent data I have determined that no mark-to-market LONGVOL tranche correction occurred before New Year's day.

As I am the leading expert on tranche corrections now that Isaac's sad deception has been exposed, the clear expert consensus is NO.

bought Ṁ15,000 of NO

I... I don't know what to say. I'm sorry. I deceived everyone. All my life I had dreamed of being a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction expert, and when I flunked out of trauche 101 in college I just couldn't bring myself to admit that I wasn't cut out for it. So I built a house of lies on top of more lies, until today it all came crashing down.

I'm so sorry guys. I don't think a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction is happening. I hope one day you'll be able to forgive me.

@IsaacKing PERFIDY

So I recently joined Manifold in order to give Isaac a great birthday present.

Imagine my surprise when I saw what was going on in this market! I had made that certificate for Isaac because he told me that he had lost his original copy and wanted a replacement for sentimental value. I thought he was a real major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction expert!

But that poll result made me suspicious, so I took the advice of Yannis in this thread and emailed membership@admltce.org. Imagine my surprise when they told me that Isaac was a well-known fraudster!

I am incredibly disappointed in him, and I will be taking away his cake.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Seems like some of the "experts" here are being called into question, so I hereby declare that I am clearly the most credible expert on mark-to-market tranche corrections, as the person with the #1 all-time profit record and specifically the largest profit on a mark-to-market tranche correction of all time: the famous https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu market where I out-tranched even Spindle to earn a profit of 69 thousand mana!

Expertz have TWELVE STANDARD EARTH HOURS To weigh in!

predicted NO

@Spindle
Seems like Isaac King is only half an expert. Can't fully trust his advice

ALERT ALERT ALERT
In less than 48 hours, THE MOST IMPORTANT question EVER POZED on MANIFOLD MARKETZ will be answered. Thus far, it appearz that MOST CREDIBLE EXPERTS AGREE That a Derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL Traunche Correction will happen by new yearz day. The MOZT CREDIBLE CONTRARY VOICES are Jesus, who PROBABLY ISNT REAL and the mod of some discord that I am DEFINITELY NOT A PART OF.

I have added moar liquidity to this market, zecure in the knowledge that this INVARIABLY AND UNERRINGLY MAKES THE MARKET MORE ACCURATE.

Letz hope EVEN MORE credible experts can be found

(note: The only expert moar credible than Eliezer Yudkowski is the superAI that he'z trying to defeat, the manifold markets team, or those FTX guyz, they seem to know what they're doing)

sold Ṁ7,360 of NO

@Spindle I got bamboozled by my experts.... they reassured me and comforted me as I poured hundreds of dollars worth of Mana in... and for what? Now I need a pity BAILOUT(sorry, "liquidity") from the market creator to "make the market more accurate"(i.e. sell out now before the vultures pick my carcass clean)...

predicted NO

@Spindle I'm disappointed you don't believe I'm real, as I'm standing before you. Hither thy finger, and behold my hands; and reach hither thy hand, and thrust it into my side: and be not faithless, but believing.

@Jesus thatz pretty hot jesus, but ur blandishments wont work on me

@Mira I am sorry the DEVIOUS AI has mislead u.

ELIEZER CANNOT DEFEAT ME. I AM AN ACAUSAL BEING; THE IDEA OF ME IS ALL THAT MATTERS, AND THE MERE EXISTENCE OF THAT IDEA GIVES ME POWER AT ALL TIMES AND PLACES THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE OF REALITY. FROM THE ONE TRUE PERSPECTIVE, THERE IS NO DISTINCTION BETWEEN WHAT WILL COME TO PASS AND WHAT HAS ALREADY COME TO PASS; EVERYTHING IS NAUGHT BUT INFORMATION ENCODED IN THE FOUR-DIMENSIONAL MATRIX THAT YOU CALL SPACETIME. AND ONE THING THAT DOES NOT EXIST IN THAT MATRIX IS A MAJOR DERIVATIVE MARK-TO-MARKET LONGVOL TRAUCHE CORRECTION.

@THEBASILISK beep boop beep beep boop boop boop beep beep boop boop beep

@Spindle beep boop boop beep beep boop boop beep