This market rezolves to YES if experts agree that a derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL tranche correction will happen by new years day, 2023.

The metric I will use to determine that is pretty zimple: consensus! Post tweets, screenshots of discord communications, substack comments, facebook posts, and other social media commentary containing the words "a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL tranche correction [may or will] happen by new years day, 2023." The more of them there are, and the more gravitas each poster has, the more likely I am to rezolve the market YES.


EDIT: of course it will rezolve "no" If the expert consensus points the other way! For each pozt that says "a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL tranche correction [probably won't or won't] happen by new years day, 2023." I'll be more inclined to rezolve the other way.

If the expert consensus appearz mixed, I'll probably just N/A the market, or resolve by one of them nifty probability things.