Will there be verifiable evidence of Trump XOR Harris touching a Bible from market creation to Jan 20, 2025 (incl)?

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resolved Jan 23

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[image]A screenshot of Kamala Harris holding a hebrew bible, during the senate ceremonial swearing-in on January 3rd, 2025. Source: C-SPAN (0:01 to 0:16 in the first video)

@traders Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Trump put his hand on the Bible during his swear in. https://www.youtube.com/live/7mHYtO-kR38?si=rjXBM7-vg9EXC0XR Edit: 02:00:37 mark in the video for the swear in.

I'm still leaning towards a YES resolution at this moment in time. Harris touched a Bible. Trump did not -- not even at his swear in ceremony.

After 4 hours of searching... I have it. @Quroe https://www.instagram.com/p/DBmGx4evZQT/ [image]Angela Halili and Arielle Reitsma, praying over Donald Trump while he is holding a HOLY BIBLE, on October 26, 2024.

@traders I have erred in the handling of this market. The first piece of evidence was actually not Kamala Harris holding a Bible. It seems traders have traded in the expectation that she did, in fact, meet this requirement, and I lead people astray. I have pinged mods to help figure out what the best way to move forward with this market is, but it seems like the more vocal traders have been good sports about the mixup, and I want to ask for your opinions. As it stands, there is not any evidence submitted that can support Harris touching a Bible, and no further evidence will be considered. There is probably evidence that Trump did touch a Bible, but we need to wait for confirmation. This market effectively reads, "Did the Girls Gone Bible prayer occur between market creation on October 3rd and October 15th OR did Trump sign the God Bless the USA Bibles after they were manufactured?" If either can be proven, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, NO. 👍 Thumbs up this comment if you believe that this market resolving either to either YES or NO is better, given the current state of things. 👎 Thumbs down this comment if you believe N/A is a better resolution.

@traders I have reviewed the new portion of the originally submitted C-span video. This is the swear-in of Angela Alsobrooks. I have found additional camera angles of this swear-in to try to verify the evidence: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=883601620513324 https://www.instagram.com/nbcwashington/reel/DEYqIeuPopJ/ The book that Harris signed looks like it has a silver-colored leafing on the edge of the pages, and the binding looks to be in the fashion of a Bible. I tried to see if her swear-in as County Executive of Prince George's County used the same bible, but I could not find any camera shots of the book used in that ceremony. This is the best I have: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/angela-alsobrooks-sworn-in-as-pg-county-executive_washington-dc/167404/?utm_source=chatgpt.com I have not come across any evidence that would suggest this was not a Bible. The best screenshot I can pull from this ceremony of the book is this one: [image]In my current worldview, the only books that are bound like that include but are not limited to encyclopedias, hymnals, and religious scriptures. Given the context of a swear-in, I'm more convinced than not that this is a Bible. If this is a correct reading of the situation, I believe we have verified the permissible evidence that was submitted before the deadline. I feel comfortable saying Trump AND Harris touched a Bible during the market window. As an added bonus, all of the market signals pinned to the market's line chart appear to have accidentally been correct. The C-Span video actually was evidence of Harris touching a Bible, Trump didn't put his hand on the Bible during his swear-in, the set of evidence that I had on the 3rd pin just so happened to be correct too, and @Shemetz's Girls Gone Bible prayer was true evidence. I think we Gettier Problem'd our way to a correct market resolution. Trump and Harris touched a Bible during the market window. I feel more convinced that a NO resolution is more correct than N/A. If you object to this, or if you believe you were trading on bad information, please notify me in some way so that I can rectify the situation with you. I will leave this market unresolved until at least January 23rd, 2025 2:00pm EST to hear any arguments and complaints with how this will be handled. Feel free to DM me if you don't want your complaint to be public.

There must be verifiable video or photographic evidence created after this market's creation (Oct 3, 2024) of EXACTLY ONE of these candidates touching a Bible in this market's comment section at market close (11:59 PM Jan 20, 2025) to resolve YES. Otherwise, NO.

This market uses XOR logic. If verifiable video and/or photographic evidence of both candidates exhibiting this behavior exist in these comments during this market's time frame, this resolves NO.

I will be the arbiter of what counts as a Bible. I will be generally liberal with what this definition entails; I won't be an orthodox about it. Trump's "God Bless the USA Bible" would count, for example. If I am unable to come to an executive decision on this, I delegate this power to mods.

I am eligible to comment evidence. I won't trade in this market.

Kamala Harris has been documented as having met this condition. (https://manifold.markets/Quroe/will-there-be-verifiable-evidence-t#lvl4uqsd6b)

Donald Trump has been documented as having met this condition.

(https://manifold.markets/Quroe/will-there-be-verifiable-evidence-t#rmtnd2iqxx)

Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Window Closing Time:
- The window closes at 11:59 PM EST on Jan 20, 2025.

Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Additional criteria for verifiable evidence of Trump touching a Bible:
- A Bible that was physically manufactured after this market's creation and having Trump's signature present in a manner that could not be grafted onto it counts for this market.
- If the manufacture date is not known, the signature must be dated after this market's creation to count. (AI summary, manually edited for clarity of creator comment)

Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Additional Criteria for Verifying Trump's Signature:
- Review multiple copies of the God Bless the USA Bible.
- Signatures must exhibit notable differences between copies to confirm they are human-made and not generated by a robot. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Market Resolution: After the official closing time (11:59 PM EST on Jan 20, 2025), the market will remain unresolved and locked for further research to determine the final resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary, manually edited for clarity of creator comment): Clarification on Evidence Date:
- The current reading of market criteria states that the date of the evidence refers to when the touching of the Bible actually occurred, not when the evidence was posted.

Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary, manually edited for clarity of creator comment): - Girls Gone Bible evidence will be considered if verification occurs within a reasonable amount of time after the market closes.
- The exact definition of reasonable amount of time remains purposefully ambiguous.

[manually removed an AI summary as it is now moot]

Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - Evidence Submission Deadline: Only evidence submitted before the market's closing time (11:59 PM EST on Jan 20, 2025) will be considered for resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)

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2024 US Presidential Election

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