There must be verifiable video or photographic evidence created after this market's creation (Oct 3, 2024) of EXACTLY ONE of these candidates touching a Bible in this market's comment section at market close (11:59 PM Jan 20, 2025) to resolve YES. Otherwise, NO.
This market uses XOR logic. If verifiable video and/or photographic evidence of both candidates exhibiting this behavior exist in these comments during this market's time frame, this resolves NO.
I will be the arbiter of what counts as a Bible. I will be generally liberal with what this definition entails; I won't be an orthodox about it. Trump's "God Bless the USA Bible" would count, for example. If I am unable to come to an executive decision on this, I delegate this power to mods.
I am eligible to comment evidence. I won't trade in this market.
Kamala Harris has been documented as having met this condition. (https://manifold.markets/Quroe/will-there-be-verifiable-evidence-t#lvl4uqsd6b)
Donald Trump has been documented as having met this condition.
(https://manifold.markets/Quroe/will-there-be-verifiable-evidence-t#rmtnd2iqxx)
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Window Closing Time:
The window closes at 11:59 PM EST on Jan 20, 2025.
Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Additional criteria for verifiable evidence of Trump touching a Bible:
A Bible that was physically manufactured after this market's creation and having Trump's signature present in a manner that could not be grafted onto it counts for this market.
If the manufacture date is not known, the signature must be dated after this market's creation to count. (AI summary, manually edited for clarity of creator comment)
Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Additional Criteria for Verifying Trump's Signature:
Review multiple copies of the God Bless the USA Bible.
Signatures must exhibit notable differences between copies to confirm they are human-made and not generated by a robot. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Market Resolution: After the official closing time (11:59 PM EST on Jan 20, 2025), the market will remain unresolved and locked for further research to determine the final resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary, manually edited for clarity of creator comment): Clarification on Evidence Date:
The current reading of market criteria states that the date of the evidence refers to when the touching of the Bible actually occurred, not when the evidence was posted.
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary, manually edited for clarity of creator comment): - Girls Gone Bible evidence will be considered if verification occurs within a reasonable amount of time after the market closes.
The exact definition of reasonable amount of time remains purposefully ambiguous.
[manually removed an AI summary as it is now moot]
Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - Evidence Submission Deadline: Only evidence submitted before the market's closing time (11:59 PM EST on Jan 20, 2025) will be considered for resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน4,977 | |
| 2 | แน1,042 | |
| 3 | แน876 | |
| 4 | แน726 | |
| 5 | แน509 |
People are also trading
We can finally close this story. Resolving NO. I am convinced both candidates touched a Bible from the evidence presented during the market time frame.
@traders I have reviewed the new portion of the originally submitted C-span video.
This is the swear-in of Angela Alsobrooks. I have found additional camera angles of this swear-in to try to verify the evidence:
The book that Harris signed looks like it has a silver-colored leafing on the edge of the pages, and the binding looks to be in the fashion of a Bible. I tried to see if her swear-in as County Executive of Prince George's County used the same bible, but I could not find any camera shots of the book used in that ceremony. This is the best I have:
I have not come across any evidence that would suggest this was not a Bible. The best screenshot I can pull from this ceremony of the book is this one:
In my current worldview, the only books that are bound like that include but are not limited to encyclopedias, hymnals, and religious scriptures. Given the context of a swear-in, I'm more convinced than not that this is a Bible.
If this is a correct reading of the situation, I believe we have verified the permissible evidence that was submitted before the deadline. I feel comfortable saying Trump AND Harris touched a Bible during the market window. As an added bonus, all of the market signals pinned to the market's line chart appear to have accidentally been correct. The C-Span video actually was evidence of Harris touching a Bible, Trump didn't put his hand on the Bible during his swear-in, the set of evidence that I had on the 3rd pin just so happened to be correct too, and @Shemetz's Girls Gone Bible prayer was true evidence.
I think we Gettier Problem'd our way to a correct market resolution. Trump and Harris touched a Bible during the market window. I feel more convinced that a NO resolution is more correct than N/A. If you object to this, or if you believe you were trading on bad information, please notify me in some way so that I can rectify the situation with you. I will leave this market unresolved until at least January 23rd, 2025 2:00pm EST to hear any arguments and complaints with how this will be handled. Feel free to DM me if you don't want your complaint to be public.
@traders In the Full Send Podcast interview, Trump says that the election was 23-24 days away. This would mean that this conversation took place on either October 12th or 13th. This set has the same backdrop as the Girls Gone Bible prayer, which is first seen on the internet on October 15th. The Girls Gone Bible prayer seems to be from around that time.
Additionally, one of the interviewers, the one in the blue hoodie and black baseball cap, appears to be wearing the same outfit from the interview in this video, and the Girls Gone Bible girls are in the same shot wearing the same clothing from their Trump Prayer video.
Considering that the screenshot had the cover page dated October 12th from this video, I am convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that the Girls Gone bible prayer occurred on exactly October 12th.
Unless Trump is holing up in one specific part of the country before an election for 10 straight days and being around a group of people who all collectively only have 1 set of clothes in their wardrobe, I'm currently convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that the Girls Gone Bible Prayer did happen after market creation. Trump appears to have touched a Bible on October 12th, 2024. Would anybody like to contest this line of reasoning?
@traders I have erred in the handling of this market. The first piece of evidence was actually not Kamala Harris holding a Bible. It seems traders have traded in the expectation that she did, in fact, meet this requirement, and I lead people astray.
I have pinged mods to help figure out what the best way to move forward with this market is, but it seems like the more vocal traders have been good sports about the mixup, and I want to ask for your opinions.
As it stands, there is not any evidence submitted that can support Harris touching a Bible, and no further evidence will be considered. There is probably evidence that Trump did touch a Bible, but we need to wait for confirmation.
This market effectively reads, "Did the Girls Gone Bible prayer occur between market creation on October 3rd and October 15th OR did Trump sign the God Bless the USA Bibles after they were manufactured?" If either can be proven, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, NO.
๐ Thumbs up this comment if you believe that this market resolving either to either YES or NO is better, given the current state of things.
๐ Thumbs down this comment if you believe N/A is a better resolution.
After 4 hours of searching... I have it. @Quroe
https://www.instagram.com/p/DBmGx4evZQT/
Angela Halili and Arielle Reitsma, praying over Donald Trump while he is holding a HOLY BIBLE, on October 26, 2024.
@traders Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Trump put his hand on the Bible during his swear in. https://www.youtube.com/live/7mHYtO-kR38?si=rjXBM7-vg9EXC0XR
Edit: 02:00:37 mark in the video for the swear in.
A screenshot of Kamala Harris holding a hebrew bible, during the senate ceremonial swearing-in on January 3rd, 2025. Source: C-SPAN (0:01 to 0:16 in the first video)
Edit from 2025-01-21: I WAS WRONG, WATCH IT FOR YOURSELF
If you enjoyed the havok of this one, be on the lookout for this other moonshot of a market:
List of cool new words and phrases I've learned from this market:
Floccinaucinihilipilificable
Swiss cheese model (of failure modes)
Gettier problem (of knowledge justification)
@TheAllMemeingEye I'm also trying to verbify Mariah Carey as a Manifold inside joke. I hope this isn't being seen as a joke at somebody's expense, but that seemed like a pivotal moment in Manifold's culture.
Mariah Carey. v.
To accidentally give wrong market context as a market creator, usually causing market traders to bet with incorrect market signals.
@TheAllMemeingEye If I may meme more, this is one of my favorite Gettier examples. (27 minute video)
@traders I have erred in the handling of this market. The first piece of evidence was actually not Kamala Harris holding a Bible. It seems traders have traded in the expectation that she did, in fact, meet this requirement, and I lead people astray.
I have pinged mods to help figure out what the best way to move forward with this market is, but it seems like the more vocal traders have been good sports about the mixup, and I want to ask for your opinions.
As it stands, there is not any evidence submitted that can support Harris touching a Bible, and no further evidence will be considered. There is probably evidence that Trump did touch a Bible, but we need to wait for confirmation.
This market effectively reads, "Did the Girls Gone Bible prayer occur between market creation on October 3rd and October 15th OR did Trump sign the God Bless the USA Bibles after they were manufactured?" If either can be proven, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, NO.
๐ Thumbs up this comment if you believe that this market resolving either to either YES or NO is better, given the current state of things.
๐ Thumbs down this comment if you believe N/A is a better resolution.
@Quroe I really don't think it matters that people may have traded based off you being temporarily mistaken. That's normal. It's still fully our responsibility, our mana, our mistake. You reporting a fact incorrectly at some point, and then being corrected, is not remotely grounds for N/Aing the market imo.
In fact I think you wanting to reimburse those people (us) is what is unfair, in terms of market incentives. But ultimately your business.
Below you claim to be primarily motivated by following the "letter of the law" in your resolution. So just do that. Resolve the market factually.
@TheAllMemeingEye It was originally set up like this back in October to set the expectation that people got their mana back quickly. However, that drive is secondary to the main issue at hand. I'm still going to try to follow the letter of the law with this.
@TheAllMemeingEye Fun? Yes! Desirable? No!
In all seriousness, it's what I expect traders to do in their role. A lawyer doesn't necessarily fight for truth, they fight to win (or mitigate damage). That is my interpretation of the default expectation of their role. The system is designed in such a way that, when all evidence is put on the table, a jury/judge should be able to be convinced one way or another from what biased parties present. If a trader argues against their staked interest, all the more respect.
I do it too. I angle shoot in other people's markets for an edge. That's part of the game in my eyes, but I try to also aim for truth, and I try my best to not be a jerk about it.
@mods I appear to have faulted in my execution of this market.
Problem 1) I misidentified who was holding the book on the swear-in on January 3rd, 2025. I accepted the evidence to the record incorrectly. I am making a shaky attempt to rely on this clause in the market criteria to rectify this:
If I am unable to come to an executive decision on this, I delegate this power to mods.
Problem 2) The "Girls Gone Bible" evidence may be verified at a future date. The thought of that not being verified for an indefinite amount of time doesn't sit well with me, but this is a minor issue that might work itself out.
---
Traders were almost certainly making trades based on the pinned comment saying that I accepted the senatorial swear-in evidence, and I don't want to unfairly "Mariah Carey" those traders out of their mana. Do you all have a recommendation for how I should proceed?
"kamala's" face is fully obscured by her hair in the pic, it's an imposter trying to manipulate the market! /s
I can't tell if your comment aged like milk or fine wine.
@Quroe imo it makes way more sense to be corrected & adjust course. the facts will fall where they may and we may all be mistaken at some step along the way
I agree with the call to get mods involved... I accidentally caused some major market manipulation in my favor, even though for the longest time it didn't seem so, in my eyes. For what it's worth, I don't mind it if people made bad trades based on my easily-disproven "evidence", but I do think Quroe's apparent acceptance of that evidence makes everything murkier, and it wouldn't do to punish traders for trusting the creator to that degree.
I can't tell if your comment aged like milk or fine wine.
If I had a mana for every time I sarcastically predicted that this market would flip on its head I would have 2 mana, which isn't a lot but it's weird that it happened twice
fwiw this is turning out to be one of my favorite markets in a whileโฆ
@Shemetz Iโm sorry for throwing a tiny bit of shade in my comment below, I was incredulous and apprehensive to be the first to point out something so obviousโฆ. But it turns out you and @Quroe are both awesome: scouring the internet until your eyes bleed, all in the interest of solid evidence so that the resolution for this market could be accurate and fair. โฅ๏ธ That to me is the point of fake money markets. ๐น
Iโm glad we can laugh together at a silly mistake, and maybe also throw a LITTLE shade at the betters who noticed before me that was not Kamala but decided to try and leverage that information instead of sharing it. May those kids make all the Mana, and climb the leaderboard to the top, and reflect back from those lofty heights on all they have truly won.
Or, maybe not. Thereโs still the question of #girlsgonebible. Are you sure you need @mods to adjudicate that? Iโll comment below but it seems like you are doing a great job.
@BlueDragon totally fine but just will note that writing out & selecting \@mods in full adds it formally to the mod queue for someone to handle so if the goal is just to refer to the mods (& not have them step in) can just write mods without using the tag. obviously totally fine & will resolve this for now because IIUC you are not asking for mods to do anything atm
@Ziddletwix It seems like this curfuffle has evolved since I originally pinged mods. There is a dialog open between traders, and I'm hopeful we might be able to solve this amicably. I'll ping again if it gets out of hand. I think no mod action for now is correct.