Weird that this one was very closely divided at first, but now YES has 4 times as many votes as NO.

When I saw this option, I was shocked and awed that Roko had actually made a good take for once. But looking at the actual tweet, I don't think this is a good paraphrase of it at all. He never actually says anything about it being bad, although that's implicit. He says it's, "The absolute state of Western Civilization," whatever that's supposed to mean. So his actual take is a very bad one if it's meant to imply (which knowing Roko it surely is) that this single incident is somehow a sign of western civilization destroying itself by being too woke.

@PlasmaBallin This seems uncharitable, he's talking about a specific issue that is indeed a massive problem in the Western world, the fact that it is impossible to build anything due to entrenched local interests, not some abstract attack on 'wokeness'.

@PlasmaBallin agree with this and I'm curious how anyone holds yes here. aside from being an assumptive summary of a non-existent tweet text, I suspect, for me, it's always a pretty bad take to summarize the "absolute state of Western Civilization" by a single newspaper clipping on pretty much any topic.

@SemioticRivalry If it was anyone other than Roko, I'd agree that this is an uncharitable interpretation, but after seeing his other tweets, I can't possibly interpret this one any other way. I don't think it's uncharitable to use someone's past statements as evidence for how to interpret another statement they've made, especially when the only thing Roko himself said here is that this story is the "absolute state" of western civilization, implying he thinks it somehow represents the entire society.

@shankypanky I imagine some people are holding YES purely because the summary of the tweet given in the option is misleading. That's the reason I'm not holding any shares in it.

@PlasmaBallin I suspect so as well. I asked Jonathan after submitting if he meant to include a different link, in fact, as it didn't make any sense. I wonder if this submission should even remain to begin with given it seems to be more the submitters' personal opinion than an actual tweet to gauge...

@PlasmaBallin but I voted no because going only on face value of the actual tweet itself, it's a shit take imo

@PlasmaBallin I mean ... it is a massive issue across what the term "western civilization" means without the connotations

@PlasmaBallin I do think we should probably take the tweets at face value (in most cases), otherwise it quickly becomes an argument of 'is X person good or bad" because if Richard Hanania tweeted this out, somebody would say "Well since Hanania is racist, he clearly meant that this problem is because of black people, and since I'm fine with black people that's a bad take."

With that said, Roko tweets about Yimby/pro-tech/anti-regulation stuff like... all the time? It's one of his most prominent talking points, so just because it's Roko I don't really think it's strong evidence that what he really means here is that LGBT people caused this, because this fits in perfectly well with his opinions outside of wokeness.

@SemioticRivalry On face value, it's still claiming more than what the summary says it is. And I do think we can take into account someone's known stances to better interpret their statements without that automatically leading to any question about their statements being one of whether the person is good or bad. Like I said, when I first read the summary of the tweet, I thought Roko had actually made a good take for once. It wasn't until I read what was actually in the tweet that I interpreted it differently.

Obviously, Roko doesn't think LGBT people caused this, he thinks conservationists caused it, which in and of itself is not a bad take. But I interpreted his tweet to be tying this into a larger narrative about how woke ideas are leading to the decline of western civilization, which I think is what he thinks and what he meant by the tweet.

@PlasmaBallin Obviously people can vote however they want, but I think that attitude will make this market format vastly less interesting. For the Matt Walsh tweet, I don't have to consider whether his take is actually correct, I just have to consider whether he is bad or not, and therefore his tweet implies the rest of his bad ideas. We're also making things confusing for the vast majority of users, who do not really know who Roko is but can read the plain meaning of what's posted here.

I like this one. Shops that hire huge pool of college grads/new MBAs/first year associates for professional jobs won’t need that first couple tiers of the pyramid any more. What that looks like and how far up the pyramid it goes and how do you get the experience now to do those top strategy and rainmaking and negotiating things I have no idea. I don’t think anyone else knows either. Not Sam Altman, not anyone.

@ClubmasterTransparent I think this was responding to the Roko tweet I added about AI increasing the quantity of workers?

I tend to agree. At least for the next decade, I think AI is more likely to replace junior-level employees than CEOs.

I hadn't thought about the education issue that creates. In theory AI could help by effectively giving everyone a personal tutor, but I think it's hard to advance without being given some real responsibility.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Thanks yes it was. Manifold lag gremlin struck me again.

Why are all you guys reading this Roko person? Apparently no one likes him. It’s like boomers who gripe about Maureen Dowd week after week.

@ClubmasterTransparent Every time one of his tweets gets shared here, people go check it on Twitter and see more of his tweets. It's a cycle we can't break out of. 🤣

I thought this one actually would have a chance, so we'll see.

"Conservationists" when they learn humans are animals:

Second part seems true, first is not.

@ShadowyZephyr Yeah, there's a pretty big asymmetry between those two.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 More accurate imo:
"men are rarely friends with women they'd warn their friends not to date/women are rarely friends with men they'd warn their friends not to date"

Did any answers resolve today or did the market just stay open? I’m confused by the description.

@Panfilo Yeah, several of them were resolved. @Joshua usually leaves open anything that hasn't collected enough votes yet or is very close between the YES and NO bettors.

The market will close every Saturday at Noon Pacific. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted.

If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES. If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO. If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved. The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running

a few resolutions earlier and now it's reopen for submissions for the next round.

@shankypanky Yes, I was referring to how there are 9-4 and 8-0 markets that weren’t resolved. That is pretty surprising to me from the description you quoted. Thank you for being so supportive!

@Panfilo ah - I see the ones you mean and they came in within the last day so I think Joshua wants to give them more of a chance for votes and opinions. otherwise some tweets come in and only have a few hours and not much visibility of discourse.

@shankypanky Ah, I should reword that. Those options aren't very close but votes are still coming in bc they were just added. So I've been leaving stuff like that open an extra week usually or people would always wait until after resolution to add stuff