Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
184
3.8K
29K
Apr 20
47%
@algekalipso "Zero Alcohol parties are more fun - I'd rather be at a place where people are liberally using 2C-B, 2C-I, MDMA, MDA, LSD... than taking shots" [see tweet] https://twitter.com/algekalipso/status/1779361048187027932
7%
@ilex_ulmus: "ghosting is often the kindest way to reject someone" https://twitter.com/ilex_ulmus/status/1779403388016558186
93%
Eliezer Yudkowsky: "I rarely practice that art, but I admit there's an art to saying things without saying them...." https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1741680303436108117
85%
Plasma Ballin': Homestuck is good, actually. https://twitter.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1779349502664520125
42%
Kamil Pabis: Wanting to increase fertility instead of longevity as a means to maintain the population is dehumanizing because it treats people as replaceable deprecating tools. https://twitter.com/Aging_Scientist/status/1777587853330993537
96%
Nemo: To dismiss bay-area rationalists, you have to explain why they were so early on AI, crypto, glp-1 agonists, prediction markets, psychedelics, etc. https://twitter.com/thecaptain_nemo/status/1778854143450657269
5%
@neil_chilson "Targeted advertising is an enormous benefit to humanity with almost no downsides." https://twitter.com/neil_chilson/status/1778960298625401244
51%
@nat_sharpe_ : "post-Elon twitter is worse than it was but better than it would have become" https://twitter.com/nat_sharpe_/status/1778938663961079889
8%
Postrat_Dril: "You can sleep on a bench one day and in a five star hotel the next and itll be much better than mediocrity all the time." https://x.com/postrat_dril/status/1779213291883016568
43%
Liz (@inerati): Incredibly sus of anyone who is really into “learning from history”. https://x.com/inerati/status/1778803497787707534
47%
Yann LeCun: “WhatsApp vs iMessage is the new metric vs imperial.” https://x.com/ylecun/status/1778745216842760502?s=46&t=Jg5hf71eDvxayA9Ekf_sjQ
6%
Robin Hanson: "anyone should be able to sue an organisation that doesn't sufficiently try to fulfil their motto or mission statement" https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1778921933205103073
80%
Mike Ybarra (president of blizzard): I wish I could pay more for games I liked. https://twitter.com/Qwik/status/1778269707575119977
11%
Samswara: "patronage/nepotism networks are actually kind of good" https://twitter.com/samswoora/status/1778486792204722560
4%
Growing Daniel: "I don't understand prostitution" https://twitter.com/growing_daniel/status/1778674649028866290
6%
“I keep telling guys, if you want meet quality women start with the gym. You don’t have to hit on them at the gym, just talk to them, real talk too. “ https://x.com/mikemayfieldlv/status/1777215702241579332
72%
Autumn: "a common rat/ssc/tpot mistake is reading charitably by mere habit, not as a thoughtful decision." https://twitter.com/adrusi/status/1776736515508359447
44%
Peter Singer: "zoophilia is more morally correct/responsible than eating animals" https://x.com/PeterSinger/status/1723269850930491707

You can help us in resolving options by spending at least 1 mana on each tweet you have an opinion on. Buy YES if you think it's a good take and NO if you think it's a bad take.

Many markets come in the form of "is this tweet a good take?" so I thought we'd try just doing the most direct possible version of that.

You can submit any "hot take" tweet, as well as a quote from the tweet or a neutral summary of the take. If other people trade on your submission, you'll get trader bonuses. The tweet can be from any time, but I think more recent hot takes would be better.

I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.


As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in tweets you think are Good Takes, buy any amount of NO in tweets you think are Bad Takes. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.

If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system.

Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote. I have unranked the market so it will not impact leagues.

The market will close every Saturday at Noon Pacific. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted.

If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES. If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO. If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved. The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running. It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted. In a tie, the tweet will not resolve that week.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Kamil Pabis: Wanting to increase fertility instead of longevity as a means to maintain the population is dehumanizing because it treats people as replaceable deprecating tools. https://twitter.com/Aging_Scientist/status/1777587853330993537

Longevity doesn't help your population pyramid in the long run if the fertility rate is too small.

Plasma Ballin': Homestuck is good, actually. https://twitter.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1779349502664520125

Honestly it just Is. The only reason people look at Homestuck as being bad is because of the fanbase. The fanbase only exists because the thing itself is good. It's got a great soundtrack, great comedy, and it's one of the best-made pieces of transmedia storytelling of the Internet era.

@Marnix In fact, you can generalize this: Most games/books/movies that are underrated are underrated because of a toxic or cringeworthy fanbase

Kamil Pabis: Wanting to increase fertility instead of longevity as a means to maintain the population is dehumanizing because it treats people as replaceable deprecating tools. https://twitter.com/Aging_Scientist/status/1777587853330993537
bought Ṁ45 Kamil Pabis: Wanting... NO

But they are replicable depreciating agents

@ilex_ulmus: "ghosting is often the kindest way to reject someone" https://twitter.com/ilex_ulmus/status/1779403388016558186

Needs an edit. She's making two independent points.

1) ghosting is better for the second party: I think this is true for the super majority of people, but completely not true for the minority, I.e. Confrontation is much better than ghosting for expected outcome calculations

2) ghosting is the least costly option for the first party: true unconditionally

@RanaG people should always click the tweet to get the full context before betting here so I'm leaving it as-is

Kimberly Edwards 74324: ░N░U░D░E░S░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░O░ https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/who-is-behind-all-the-pussy-in-bio-porn-spam-on-x.html
Liz (@inerati): Incredibly sus of anyone who is really into “learning from history”. https://x.com/inerati/status/1778803497787707534

I don't understand how this has a single YES vote lol. Like, where do you think any existing political system, eg the US constitution or our institutions, comes from? They were designed by people, who observed patterns of successes and failures in past systems and learned from them.

It is somewhat hard to derive patterns from history. It's just even harder to rationally guess what'll happen without any training data. Militaries care deeply about military history, they put a lot of effort into studying it, for good reasons!

Incredibly sus of anyone who is really into “learning from history”. There just isn’t that much of it. The world was unrecognizable up until a few centuries ago. Your overfit narratives are likely worthless.

Most 'history' ... is ... from the past few centuries?

@neil_chilson "Targeted advertising is an enormous benefit to humanity with almost no downsides." https://twitter.com/neil_chilson/status/1778960298625401244
bought Ṁ20 @neil_chilson "Targe... YES

The person who posted this did not, in fact, literally mean that, because twitter. They meant "Untargeted advertising has few upsides over normal advertising" and "having targeted advertising instead of untargeted advertising is hugely beneficial", which I think is true, mostly.

Kamil Pabis: Wanting to increase fertility instead of longevity as a means to maintain the population is dehumanizing because it treats people as replaceable deprecating tools. https://twitter.com/Aging_Scientist/status/1777587853330993537
bought Ṁ25 Kamil Pabis: Wanting... NO

People are objectively replaceable and depreciating, and treating them as such is entirely reasonable. I'm quite happy that all generations before this one reproduced! Increasing longevity to escape velocity is incredibly technically difficult and probably not going to happen before we all die conditional on no AGI. Having children creates more people who can experience and act, and that's very good!

Treating people as replaceable and depreciating is quite literally dehumanizing.

You just want to keep the machine going and you need to keep it fed with new meat.

Starve the machine, stop the meatgrinder!

@Odoacre (I think that's sarcasm, but)

That would involve billions of deaths and humans reverting to a pre-industrial, starvation and disease ridden lifestyle! Liberal desires for comfortable and self-actualizing lives for the masses rely on the machine!

@jacksonpolack they are going to die anyway, per your logic (and yeah, im just trolling, don't take me seriously pls)

@Odoacre I am not arguing against life extension research, but there is a big difference between dying at age 80 after living a good life and starving to death at 10 after starving for your whole life, imo.

Kamil Pabis: Wanting to increase fertility instead of longevity as a means to maintain the population is dehumanizing because it treats people as replaceable deprecating tools. https://twitter.com/Aging_Scientist/status/1777587853330993537

I’d say that maintaining the working-age population is very important when increasing longevity. Japan, for example, is potentially facing a huge labor shortage due in part to its aging population.

This trend could also disrupt state pensions in developed nations.

Eliezer Yudkowsky: "I rarely practice that art, but I admit there's an art to saying things without saying them...." https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1741680303436108117
bought Ṁ100 Eliezer Yudkowsky: "... YES

Best tweet ever written, Elon Musk should put him in charge

Eliezer Yudkowsky: "I rarely practice that art, but I admit there's an art to saying things without saying them...." https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1741680303436108117

@ButtocksCocktoasten will surely agree with this one

@nat_sharpe_ : "post-Elon twitter is worse than it was but better than it would have become" https://twitter.com/nat_sharpe_/status/1778938663961079889

Any of the YES bettors want to elaborate on what Twitter would have become?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I don’t think folks remember how annoying and censorious twitter was in the last couple months before Musk’s purchase. Tons of random people (even a couple friends) were getting their accounts banned or shadow-banned left and right. It’s certainly bad in different ways now, but it was already on the decline before his purchase.

Liz (@inerati): Incredibly sus of anyone who is really into “learning from history”. https://x.com/inerati/status/1778803497787707534

Typical twitter. Within 5 replies someone comes along and perfectly illustrates the point.

- she is wrong... there are 5 clear as day Great States in US History: 1) each lasting 80 years 2) each accurately predicted outcomes on all contentious long-term issues. The LAST great state always loses the debate. 3) In the last 4 Great State cycles, they FAILED and lost their pre-eminence when Democrats took over the state(s) 4. Ever since OH/IL 1840-1920, GOP has ruled with IRON FIST in the next Great State. Only an idiot would expect this to change. TEXAS TELLS US WHAT COMES NEXT IN US. (tweet)

@Odoacre lol this makes me almost want to change my vote 😆

@neil_chilson "Targeted advertising is an enormous benefit to humanity with almost no downsides." https://twitter.com/neil_chilson/status/1778960298625401244
bought Ṁ10 @neil_chilson "Targe... YES

I kind of agree with this one. Especially the no downside part. If I had to see a bunch of ads and I could choose between targeted and untargeted ads I'd go targeted every time.

The songs on the 1987 animated movie The Chipmunk Adventure really have no business being so good! https://en.osm.town/@seav/112264097427585847

@BlueDragon Stick to the format please! N/Aed for not being Twitter and not including the name of the person at the start.

@Joshua Will do! Your market your rules. Did not intend to violate anything.

( i nuked my twitter account a while ago, because actually twitter doesn’t exist anymore )

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