Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
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Aug 9
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Clarification:

Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$275 ($275.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on 8/8 - this includes After Market but not Overnight trading.

For After Market trading information: After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (investopedia.com)

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Is there much of a case for YES here? Tesla has failed to come out with many products recently. What they have released (Cybertruck) doesn't seem very successful. They've laid off a lot of their staff. They keep poaching people/resources for Musk's other endeavors, and now they need to divert about $50 billion to Musk. (I don't know the details of how that will happen, but I can't imagine it being good for Tesla.)

August 8 is coming in two months. I don't see much that could happen which would drastically change Tesla's situation or their stock price.

Elon tweeted that they would announce something related to robotaxis on August 8th.

>"divert about $50 billion to Musk. (I don't know the details of how that will happen,"

The shares have already been issued to Musk (he cannot sell them within 5 years of issue). Anyway clearly no resources to divert to Musk needed. The vote may help Musk appeal but that vote makes little difference. If Musk settled for less than the full $56billion (unlikely to happen soon I think) then there would be less shares in total so the market capitalisation would be divided between fewer shares making each share worth more but I think this is unlikely to happen as soon as 8 Aug. Anyway it has to go back to court and usually that takes time. There was no increase in value when the judgement was made so I don't think the market is expecting any reduction in shares.

Also $56B is not enough. That is about 10% of market capitalisation. Musk is not going to settle for nothing. Even if he did that would only increase share value from $184 to $202 but not going to happen and not by 8 Aug.

Robotaxi reveal event is on 8 Aug but it isn't clear to me what time this will be. If it is after 8pm then what is revealed cannot affect share price in time for this market but it could be earlier. Also perhaps the expectations of what will be revealed will have some effect on share prices before the market closes. Perhaps the hype does it more than the reveal?

There is also q2 delivery numbers and results. I am not expecting these to be good.

to the moon 🚀

They haven't been at that price for the past six months, and the stock price is now at $178. What am I missing that this would suddenly jump more than 50% in less than two months time?

bought Ṁ69 YES at 18%

Look at the position tab! Almost all YES shares are owned by the same user.

it will be one of my favourite markets

when this resolves yes

same 📈

My position is right up there tbh

Tesla up to $188 today. Next stop: $275.

bought Ṁ69 YES at 18%

Yep up $17 in 4 days, only just over 5 times that needed and we have only had 4 of 57 days. Definitely on track ;) 🤣

u sound nervous

bought Ṁ200 NO

https://insideevs.com/news/723266/tesla-fsd-can-detect-pedestrans-emergency-vehicles/amp/

"FSD’s latest 12.4.1 version tries to improve the existing system, but misses the mark by a big margin, according to early reports from a handful of beta testers who have access to it."

bought Ṁ50 NO

Buying no to hedge my tsla position

bought Ṁ69 YES at 20%

couldn't help myself. I made a derivative for these shenanigans

bought Ṁ69 YES at 18%

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1776351450542768368

If the robotaxi announcement is actually impressive, I suppose this could happen.

But based on Elon's track record of failed predictions, I doubt it.

bought Ṁ69 YES at 24%
bought Ṁ69 YES at 24%

Iconic

Tesla Stockholders, Time is Running Out!

bought Ṁ69 YES at 24%

Yep, time is running out to ever buy TSLA @ sub 200 prices!

You're in for a disappointing August, ripperoni. Now is your chance to get in on the "Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?" market before you lose it all, yikes.

Yes, my PT is higher tho, and so is their internal pt. The market Would not take it seriously.

Hint: Optimus Will be bigger then the car business and robotaxi.

The future is wild.

Ark will bê remembered as One of the few big bois (institutionals) that got tsla right.

It's not the update coming on the 8th though.

He is just messing around throwing shit at the wall until he gets his payday and Texas move.

https://qz.com/video-of-tesla-s-new-humanoid-robot-leaves-humans-less-1851462279

Correct. Robotaxis alone is worth more then the car business + energy business combined

Optimus is groundbreaking. Sorry to break it to you!

@MolbyDick Robotaxis would be great if they actually work, but Elon has been promising them every year for at least five years now.

My Model Y does 95% of my driving currently. With 0 interventions on most drives.

Better late than never.

In due time it will do 99%

Then 100

Honestly thought you had some big insider info here. This is all priced in, it's like you're betting on a game a year later thinking you've got the plug. You've got less edge than a rubber ball on a trampoline.

Fair Market Hypothesis breaks down on disruption. No insider info, publicly available information that is not priced in.

And this short term prediction has a lot to do with margin & deliveries

And this short term prediction has a lot to do with margin & deliveries

Oh bro, I'm like slightly disappointed in you, not gonna lie.

Let’s check back in August.

k.

@TimothyJohnson5c16
Cathie Wood vs the S&P 500:

Thinkindecades

After 1 decade of making 13% per year, the S&P 500 will be up 230%

After 1 decade of losing 30% per year, ARKK will be down 97%

bought Ṁ69 YES at 20%

I think that’s the dumbest take I’ve ever seen

What makes you so sure Optimus won't be outcompeted by Atlas 2 and Figure?

Manufacturing at scale.

I think figuere Will be #2

Atlas is too late to be in the top 2

ever gonna bet again

"i'll be back friday" :(

Busy with something be patient

jackson u flipped a long way from trying to discoueage too much gamble

jim, that's a good point tbh. on reflection it's the same kind of thing