Cabinet

TIME PotY

Bitcoin

What Will Trump Do?

Glicked 🏟️🧹

2028 Election

Israel

OpenAI

US Congress

AGI Timelines

Biden

Taylor Swift

Elon/Tesla

Sama Drama

AI Math

Fed Rates

Nvidia

Twitter

ACX 2024 

One Piece

Music AI Race

Hard Forkasts

'bet':4 'money':3 'real':2 'real-money':1

'day':6 'limit':1 'number':2 'per':5 'posts/bets':4

Livestreaming and/or betting on livestream events

'and/or':2 'bet':3 'event':6 'livestream':1,5

Removing ability to cash out mana for charity through manifold directly 

'abil':2 'cash':4 'chariti':8 'direct':11 'mana':6 'manifold':10 'remov':1

'bet':5 'event':2 'la':4 'live':1 'love':7

Selling usage of the manifold platform b2b to other companies

'b2b':7 'compani':10 'manifold':5 'platform':6 'sell':1 'usag':2

Partnering with more influencers on other social media

'influenc':4 'media':8 'partner':1 'social':7

Manifold renaming to "Rationalussy Markets" or similar

'manifold':1 'market':5 'rationalussi':4 'renam':2 'similar':7

'branding/aesthetic/clout':2 'superforecast':1

'long':2 'predict':4 'support':5 'term':3

Sponsors decide the theme/emphasis per time period

'decid':2 'per':5 'period':7 'sponsor':1 'theme/emphasis':4 'time':6

'market':6 'real':3 'relat':1 'stock':5 'world':4

Enhanced and/or dynamically generated dashboards

'and/or':2 'dashboard':5 'dynam':3 'enhanc':1 'generat':4

Monetization and/or gamification of comments

'and/or':2 'comment':5 'gamif':3 'monet':1

currently active users leave because of the change (publicly and verbally)

'activ':2 'chang':8 'current':1 'leav':4 'public':9 'user':3 'verbal':11

Markets to force people to do things (like move, quit etc.)

'etc':11 'forc':3 'like':8 'market':1 'move':9 'peopl':4 'quit':10 'thing':7

Quantified Betting (i.e. filtering bettors in a useful way like by credential, net worth, country of origin)

'bet':2 'bettor':5 'countri':15 'credenti':12 'filter':4 'i.e':3 'like':10 'net':13 'origin':17 'quantifi':1 'use':8 'way':9 'worth':14

Refocus on Polling (i.e. manifold becomes "twitter polls" but with personal history, competition, social rankings, etc - switch to a "rightness" metric rather than a "move the market/investor-style metric)

'becom':6 'competit':13 'etc':16 'histori':12 'i.e':4 'manifold':5 'market/investor-style':27 'metric':21,28 'move':25 'person':11 'poll':3,8 'rank':15 'rather':22 'refocus':1 'right':20 'social':14 'switch':17 'twitter':7

Something Wikipedian - focusing on limiting contributions to increase quality, blocking low quality things/people/ideas, and/or increasing MM editorial control, reducing the sense of freedom for users.  i.e. the opposite x,yt,tiktok

'and/or':14 'block':10 'contribut':6 'control':18 'editori':17 'focus':3 'freedom':23 'i.e':26 'increas':8,15 'limit':5 'low':11 'mm':16 'opposit':28 'qualiti':9,12 'reduc':19 'sens':21 'someth':1 'things/people/ideas':13 'tiktok':31 'user':25 'wikipedian':2 'x':29 'yt':30

Allowing paying mana to market makers to price markets

'allow':1 'maker':6 'mana':3 'market':5,9 'pay':2 'price':8

Bringing in an outside person/people/company for a c-level, leadership, or prominent advisory role

'advisori':14 'bring':1 'c':9 'c-level':8 'leadership':11 'level':10 'outsid':4 'person/people/company':5 'promin':13 'role':15

'expans':1 'manifold':3 'partner':4 'program':5

Promotions/ads act as bounties (listen to this new song for mana, join this website for mana, etc)

'act':2 'bounti':4 'etc':17 'join':12 'listen':5 'mana':11,16 'new':8 'promotions/ads':1 'song':9 'websit':14

Increased focus on Manifest and/or similar events

'and/or':5 'event':7 'focus':2 'increas':1 'manifest':4 'similar':6

mana supply reduced (fees in trading or less bonus mana or something)

'bonus':9 'fee':4 'less':8 'mana':1,10 'reduc':3 'someth':12 'suppli':2 'trade':6

restriction of Manifold features to users from certain countries

'certain':8 'countri':9 'featur':4 'manifold':3 'restrict':1 'user':6

'introduct':1 'limit':4 'order':5 'sell':3

change in the mana to USD rate you can buy it for

'buy':10 'chang':1 'mana':4 'rate':7 'usd':6

Something outside of Manifold’s current scope (resolves to poll)

'current':6 'manifold':4 'outsid':2 'poll':10 'resolv':8 'scope':7 'someth':1

On site hosted games between users (chess, poker, tetris attack) that viewers can bet on

'attack':10 'bet':14 'chess':7 'game':4 'host':3 'poker':8 'site':2 'tetri':9 'user':6 'viewer':12

auth / verification of users through cell phones or other means

'auth':1 'cell':6 'mean':10 'phone':7 'user':4 'verif':2

pivot implementation officially starts to happen before may starts

'happen':6 'implement':2 'may':8 'offici':3 'pivot':1 'start':4,9

Including Manifold markets in another company's website

'anoth':5 'compani':6 'includ':1 'manifold':2 'market':3 'websit':8

Service to help organizations or governments with decision making

'decis':8 'govern':6 'help':3 'make':9 'organ':4 'servic':1

Large increase in moderation to increase content quaility

'content':7 'increas':2,6 'larg':1 'moder':4 'quailiti':8

Increased focus on real world applications for markets

'applic':6 'focus':2 'increas':1 'market':8 'real':4 'world':5

Something that causes strutheo's Manifold Leadership Approval Rating market to stay above 75% for 1 hour

'1':16 '75':14 'approv':8 'caus':3 'hour':17 'leadership':7 'manifold':6 'market':10 'rate':9 'someth':1 'stay':12 'strutheo':4

Something that causes strutheo's Manifold Leadership Approval Rating market to stay below 60% for 1 hour

'1':16 '60':14 'approv':8 'caus':3 'hour':17 'leadership':7 'manifold':6 'market':10 'rate':9 'someth':1 'stay':12 'strutheo':4

Something that causes strutheo's Manifold Leadership Approval Rating market to stay below 50% for 1 hour

'1':16 '50':14 'approv':8 'caus':3 'hour':17 'leadership':7 'manifold':6 'market':10 'rate':9 'someth':1 'stay':12 'strutheo':4

Related to facilitating community, i.e. Discord competitor

'communiti':4 'competitor':7 'discord':6 'facilit':3 'i.e':5 'relat':1

'livestream':5 'relat':2 'someth':1 'tv':4

returning all the EA money not wasted so far and apologizing

'apolog':11 'ea':4 'far':9 'money':5 'return':1 'wast':7

They've given up on it or put it on hiatus by end of June

'end':13 'given':3 'hiatus':11 'june':15 'put':8 've':2

Users act as a pseudo-board of directors for official Manifold teams or projects (i.e. Manifold buys an esports team and management decisions are resolved by markets, Manifold produces a film and casting/locations are decided by markets)

'act':2 'board':7 'buy':18 'casting/locations':34 'decid':36 'decis':24 'director':9 'esport':20 'film':32 'i.e':16 'manag':23 'manifold':12,17,29 'market':28,38 'offici':11 'produc':30 'project':15 'pseudo':6 'pseudo-board':5 'resolv':26 'team':13,21 'user':1

Something that requires Manifold to increase ad spending 

'ad':7 'increas':6 'manifold':4 'requir':3 'someth':1 'spend':8

Something that requires Manifold to hire more staff

'hire':6 'manifold':4 'requir':3 'someth':1 'staff':8

Something that involves partnership with another platform (e.g. Twitter/Kalshi/Twitch/...)

'anoth':6 'e.g':8 'involv':3 'partnership':4 'platform':7 'someth':1 'twitter/kalshi/twitch':9

indirectly encourages more whalebait markets

'encourag':2 'indirect':1 'market':5 'whalebait':4

Fixes the problem of Manifold frequently being slow 

'fix':1 'frequent':6 'manifold':5 'problem':3 'slow':8

Someone other than James, but still Manifold staff explaining what the pivot is.

'explain':9 'jame':4 'manifold':7 'pivot':12 'someon':1 'staff':8 'still':6

Adding new features to support props markets

'ad':1 'featur':3 'market':7 'new':2 'prop':6 'support':5

Something to increase the number of daily visitors (can be Intended to work and not succeed) 

'daili':7 'increas':3 'intend':11 'number':5 'someth':1 'succeed':16 'visitor':8 'work':13

Something related to Manifold’s partner program 

'manifold':4 'partner':6 'program':7 'relat':2 'someth':1

New domain for pivoted idea (like manifold.love where manifold.markets still exists)

'domain':2 'exist':11 'idea':5 'like':6 'manifold.love':7 'manifold.markets':9 'new':1 'pivot':4 'still':10

Mana can be exchanged for more things (beside the existing charity donation program)

'besid':8 'chariti':11 'donat':12 'exchang':4 'exist':10 'mana':1 'program':13 'thing':7

Something aligned with the principles of Effective Altruism

'align':2 'altruism':8 'effect':7 'principl':5 'someth':1

Something contrary to the principles of Effective Altruism 

'altruism':8 'contrari':2 'effect':7 'principl':5 'someth':1

Greater than 5 memes about the pivot posted to the Discord within the first 24 hours of the announcement

'24':15 '5':3 'announc':19 'discord':11 'first':14 'greater':1 'hour':16 'meme':4 'pivot':7 'post':8 'within':12

manifold.news powered by manifold.markets (see recent suggestion on discord)

'discord':9 'manifold.markets':4 'manifold.news':1 'power':2 'recent':6 'see':5 'suggest':7

Something around live debates (like Destiny or presidential tv duell)

'around':2 'debat':4 'destini':6 'duell':10 'like':5 'live':3 'presidenti':8 'someth':1 'tv':9

Greater than 10 memes about the pivot posted to the Discord within the first 24 hours of the announcement

'10':3 '24':15 'announc':19 'discord':11 'first':14 'greater':1 'hour':16 'meme':4 'pivot':7 'post':8 'within':12

Austin leaving Manifold is just a set up to get people hyped about the next pivot. Austin isn't actually leaving Manifold

'actual':20 'austin':1,17 'get':10 'hype':12 'isn':18 'leav':2,21 'manifold':3,22 'next':15 'peopl':11 'pivot':16 'set':7

The real Big Pivot was the friends we made along the way

'along':10 'big':3 'friend':7 'made':9 'pivot':4 'real':2 'way':12

All markets are suspended until a Speaker of the Fold is elected by a majority of users

'elect':12 'fold':10 'major':15 'market':2 'speaker':7 'suspend':4 'user':17

The Manifold Pivot