Which manifold users will leave Manifold as a result of the "Big Pivot"

Any user who announces that they are leaving manifold because of the big pivot will be resolved yes. I will wait at least a week to make sure they weren't lying. If they come back within a month I will hopefully get a mod to reresolve.

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Will I still be active on Manifold a year after the Great Pivot?

95% chance

What will the next big community to join manifold be?

Will I still be using Manifold by September 2025?

52% chance

Will I regret leaving Manifold?

6% chance

When will manifold shut down?

If Manifold is acquired, who will acquire them?

22 Comments

24 Holders

156 Trades

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@JamesF can resolve

@Ziddletwix @JamesF @creator

bought Ṁ579 YES

@mods

@ButtocksCocktoasten resolves yes

https://manifold.markets/market/coolfold-self-immolation-how-many-u?tab=comments#iwqnol86l08

@mattyb resolves yes

I think we might have our answer already...

sold Ṁ46 YES

Does self-immolating count as an announcement that they are leaving Manifold? I think it should, but I wanted to make sure that they don't have to do some more specific thing.

@PlasmaBallin I think given that it's fully strategic (if you think charity donations matter) to donate it all and then buy back some mana equivalent to what you previously had, that it shouldn't count in this context

but if they self-immolated and said they were done with manifold, that might be different for example.

@Bayesian Yeah I’m assuming if they did that and stopped using manifold then it would count

@Bayesian Tss...

@Lion LOL i missed this, i don't remember if i did something specific, why the ping

yeah it seemed likely that your NO bet down to 1% was non-epistemic, so I mean gain from trade right? your mana is more valuable in the worlds where u stay, so you can trade the mana from the worlds where you dont' stay with the mana from the worlds where you do stay, and i can arb that, and boom

@Bayesian See my comment down below 😉 But on a serious note, there isn't a 10% chance that I'll leave because of the pivot. That's a bit excessive.

For this one it seems fairly obvious they left because of the changes to the mana economy I will wait a bit to make sure the changes to the mana economy are part of the pivot or if I find out they elft for something else.

@JamesF for @Unown like this comment if you left because of the mana economy changes

@JamesF as long as this wart part of the pivot (which seems extremely likely) it will resolve yes

I’m going to wait to resolve FUH and BTE until the big pivot in case they come back

Inside baseball and ho-hum. How is anyone not constantly online supposed to know whether they quit over Big Pivot or the legion of other ways they see room for improvement of Manifold? Maybe they buy Manifold and rebrand it.