Manifold apparently has a "pivot" in the works.

Will Manifold's change of direction be publicly announced before the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee announces that they are decreasing the target range for the federal funds rate?

From Austin (/Austin/will-i-regret-leaving-manifold ):

James, Stephen, and the rest of the team have a big pivot in store; it seems like a great bet, but not something that I personally feel drawn towards enacting. And so, now feels like a good time to step out.