Will the people who blow up their mana before the pivot regret it?
resolved May 8

Resolves YES if at least one user who self-immolates expresses regret within 2 weeks of the "big pivot" being announced. I will count anyone who is considered a self-immolator on the market above, or @Mich if /Mich/will-i-blow-up-all-mana-and-quit-ma resolves YES.

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Alright, it's now been two weeks since the pivot was announced and I haven't heard any signs of regret from the users that blew up their mana. Has anyone else?

@PlasmaBallin I haven’t

@Ziddletwix (and I've seen some of the immolated liking my/other comments about how there has been no sign of their regret, FWIW)

@Ziddletwix Heck, I've entered the Masters league despite self-immolation 🤣


the self-immolated enjoying their new lease on life

This doesn't close til tomorrow, but so far FWIW I haven't heard any of the valid people (xself immolators or mich) "express regret". (and I think it'd be pretty surprising if they changed their minds so soon)

I mean, I think they ought to regret it- blowing up your mana pre-announcement seems worse than just selling all your bets and donating it to charity post-announcement (which is what I am doing).
If my balance was only to the tune of $20 it would be different, but I've spent more than $150 on Mana.

With the pivot announced earlier today, the eligible users are locked into @Unown and myself, Magnus only self-immolated after the announcement. I still don't regret anything; maybe @Unown can just like this comment if they don't regret it either?

@Schneefackel the pivot hasn't started, it starts on May 1

Resolves YES if at least one user who self-immolates expresses regret within 2 weeks of the "big pivot" being announced

announced is good enough

@Odoacre (but we should still wait 2 weeks)

@Odoacre I've changed the closing date to be two weeks from now.

bought Ṁ10 NO

No. Confirmation bias

I hope people read the description, and not just the title, before betting? This still seems way too high.

Currently, only 3 people on the site qualify (2 self-immolators, and potentially @Mich , only if he does). Maybe you'll get a few more. But the description requires one of a small number of people who chose to get rid of their mana and leave the site to come back and explicitly express regret at that choice. That strikes me as extremely unlikely, even if you personally think that they made a very dumb choice.

> implying that staff has any idea of what the self-immolators actually value, when growing dissatisfaction with staff is a big part of why people would even self-immolate to begin with

@Schneefackel what do the self-immolators value?

• Transparency about the pivot, for a start. What is this, some media business that wants to milk secrecy for hype and engagement because spoilers are bad? Or as Strutheo put it: "This is not a startup, it's three devs in a trenchcoat".
• What does staff think we would value? Mana suddenly having real-world value beyond Internet status? Sorry, no need.
• The recent Discord bannings have shown that staff interests are not aligned with my own. Like, at all. So if Sinclair says that we will regret blowing up our mana, all I hear is that they would benefit from us not blowing up our mana. Life is more than just Manifold, y'know.
I like the attention I get for being one of only two people who actually did it.
• Rationalussy

Big fluctuations, I see. I agree more with the new probability than the old one, the only reason I didn't bet was because I didn't want to be seen as partial if the resolution ends up being controversial.

how tf will you resolve this

@nikki If one of the users says they regret doing it

@nikki If I don't see any evidence that any of them expressed regret, it will resolve NO. But they could easily comment on their Manifold account that they regret it if it turns out that they do.