What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? [ADD RESPONSES]
193
3.8K
27K
May 12
98.8%
Greater than 5 memes about the pivot posted to the Discord within the first 24 hours of the announcement
98%
Greater than 10 memes about the pivot posted to the Discord within the first 24 hours of the announcement
97%
No change to the website domain
95%
There will be an alternate currency
92%
Something to increase the number of daily visitors (can be Intended to work and not succeed)
92%
currently active users leave because of the change (publicly and verbally)
92%
Spice
87%
James explaining what the pivot is.
87%
Something to earn more money
70%
pivot is officially announced before may starts
69%
pivot implementation officially starts to happen before may starts
66%
redeemable reward points for trading / making markets / activity
56%
Mana can be exchanged for more things (beside the existing charity donation program)
54%
A higher % of manifold deems the pivot to be "sensible" over "silly / foolish" in a poll
54%
Something outside of Manifold’s current scope (resolves to poll)
46%
restriction of Manifold features to users from certain countries
36%
real-money betting
27%
Something aligned with the principles of Effective Altruism
27%
Something that causes strutheo's Manifold Leadership Approval Rating market to stay above 75% for 1 hour
26%
Something that requires Manifold to hire more staff

In Austin's farewell post:

James, Stephen, and the rest of the team have a big pivot in store; it seems like a great bet, but not something that I personally feel drawn towards enacting. And so, now feels like a good time to step out.

James made a response:

Manifold may indeed have been trapped in a local maxima, but not for long! We always have another fresh idea, another trick up our sleeves. The latest secret project for Manifold will be big.

/strutheo/will-the-manifold-pivot-be-announce

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bought Ṁ30 change in the mana t... YES

@strutheo oops nvm!

pivot implementation officially starts to happen before may starts
bought Ṁ10 pivot implementation... NO

@strutheo Just to be clear, you do indeed mean by this answer that the pivotal change occurs before May, not merely its announcement, right?

@snazzlePop yes, the pivot must start happening before may 1st starts. not just an announcement, and not just these changes laying the groundwork for it

auth / verification of users through cell phones or other means

According to a recent announcement which is explicitly related to the pivot, new users will be required to verify their cellphone numbers in order to receive the signup bonus. Does this count?

Mana can be exchanged for more things (beside the existing charity donation program)

An interesting comment from Sinclair on /Mich/will-i-blow-up-all-mana-and-quit-ma

I wonder what juicy things you’ll be able to exchange mana for.

@Nikos also highlighting this comment from @Mira on the approval rating market:

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating#pez0x9qtbtq

More long term prediction support
bought Ṁ125 More long term predi... NO

Loan system will be out the door. RIP

opened a Ṁ50 More long term predi... YES at 5% order

@AmmonLam Fill my limit order.

Someone other than James, but still Manifold staff explaining what the pivot is.

Is this mutually exclusive with the James explaining option, or can multiple presenters explain and both resolve YES? If they are mutually exclusive, there is opportunity for arbitrage.

@Jacobmpp Yeah, feel free to N/A this. Probably ill advised.

Something that causes strutheo's Manifold Leadership Approval Rating market to stay below 50% for 1 hour
bought Ṁ10 Something that cause... YES

It went below 50% for more than an hour earlier today, not sure if that counts or not

Greater than 5 memes about the pivot posted to the Discord within the first 24 hours of the announcement

first one (oops idk if this is within 24h of announcement )

@strutheo Wait, does it count when the pivot technically hasn't been announced yet?

@strutheo yeah are you counting this as the announcement? I assumed this was like, the preview of some early changes that are going to be part of the pivot announcement.

@PlasmaBallin yeah it's not really the pivot yet. I think it can be included as a part of the pivot/ something entailed by the pivot. But the pivot as a whole isn't here yet.

@jim yeah ill not count this meme, too early for the announcement. but changes like to loans are clearly a part of setting up the pivot so i will leave those resolved

More long term prediction support
bought Ṁ50 More long term predi... NO

lol

sold Ṁ52 mana supply reduced ... YES

Why is this market hidden?

@jim bc chris wants it to be

@Bayesian I was going to get rich from trader bonuses 😁

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