.

Conditionals are a type of market that will no longer be permitted.

@Panfilo hmm i read this as 'about certain issues' as in war/death/etc

but i also get your interpretation here, since it says 'certain scenarios'

might na or ask a mod

this might need to be NAed - they specifically say its not real money betting, but people are referring to it as shorthand...

@strutheo It's real money betting in spirit, if not in legal terms.

@strutheo Don't be a coward, resolve it YES

@chrisjbillington 😂

A legal fiction so thin it might as well not be there.

@strutheo I am NO on this, and at first I thought it wasn't real-money betting, but now, I think I was wrong and it is.

is it confirmed they are doing money only, not giftcards?

@strutheo I sold out of this one because it seems unclear—cash is what's confirmed, but the notion doc does off-hand briefly mention gift cards as maybe something in consideration in the future.

We are exploring many other win point redemption options including digital goods / cosmetics on Manifold, merch, gift cards, and cash.

@Ziddletwix cc @SG the market depends on it!

@strutheo also the very similar looking option in the Spice market is super high? so i'm steering clear of this one seems too unclear

@strutheo We would like to offer this but are still working out the details.

@SG ok will wait til market close - any reason to even offer this if you're already offering money? now im curious

Surprised this is so low—10x devaluation of a currency whose promise had been “donate this to EA causes” for many folks? With a pivot into real money betting. It’s good they’re trying to make charity donations “whole” for those who reach out but still seems like this clears the trivially low bar (see: meeting notes where they say EA people are upset)

@Ziddletwix

this is such a debatable thing im just going to NA i think

Who are key people that have left? Are there discord threads or other commentary?

@Tyler31 you can bet on it here

Wasn’t this called out in the announcement as something they wanted to encourage (or maybe it was inverse, to discourage short term)??

@Tyler31 I just skimmed over again and don’t see it explicitly called out. May have been wishful thinking about some of the ambiguous comments.

@Tyler31 They want to encourage this, but none of the changes made in the pivot encourage it (In fact, they strongly discourage it). Currently, it sounds like they are trying to come up with a way to incentivize it without loans, but don't have any concrete plans yet. Maybe they will come up with something eventually, but it won't be part of the original pivot.

Can someone explain some speculative mechanics here? Wikipedia for "sweepstakes" (which they link to in their doc) mentions
"Today, sweepstakes in the United States are used as marketing promotions to reward existing consumers and to draw attention to a product.[2] By definition, the winner is determined by pure random chance rather than skill.[6]"
(Bolding added. Note, [6] is a dead link)

It seems difficult to argue that forecasting / prediction is not a game of skill. It seems like could work if just award Prize Points no matter the outcome just for making a prediction, but the scheme of "Starting May 1st, 2024, users will receive prize points from markets that resolve in their favor at a rate of M1 : ₩1,...." doesn't seem compatible.

Is that Wikipedia definition just wrong? Some other scheme? They link to Fliff and Chumba, but it's unclear how these work.

@Anonculously they are gambling on a legal grey area and talking to lawyers, in a month they might tell them this pivot isnt allowed.

@strutheo thanks for comment. I don't think this fully answers it. Or if it really is just a "🤷 we don't know a legal way to do this, but we'll try it until we're told no" situation, seems like a mistake, with better alternatives.