Resolves Yes if someone managed to find out what is "the pivot" before James or a manifold staff officially announces it. The details have to be leaked at least 6 hours before the intended official announcement for it to count. And the person who knew the details have to then leak it in public (to discord or to a market) for it to count.
I will not trade on this market.I will use my judgement to decide whether something counts as a leak.
Examples of what counts as a leak:
Someone checked Manifold's github and found coding changes that reveals what the pivot is about
Someone found out major details about the pivot by talking to a Manifold staff
Someone who can mind-read read James mind and then announced what the leak is about
Examples of what does not counts as a leak:
James talked about some details of the pivot in a public channel in manifold discord
Manifold github update about the leak 3 hours before the official announcement and someone found out about it.
Gabrille learned about the pivot in a mod talk, but did not reveal it to other people
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Now would be a good time for someone to create a purely fun money only prediction market. You'd have 100% market share ! /sarcasm
If it leaks, the team will react in less than 6 hours to make an official announcement, i think. So betting NO.
I think Spice is going to be a major part of the pivot. If so, even if we don't know exactly how it will work, I believe enough has leaked to resolve this YES.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 FYI I wont resolve this market until after the pivot has been revealed.
We still dont know what Spice is for and how that interacts with the existing prediction markets. We only know a currency is called Spice so far. That's no sufficient to be counted as "someone managed to find out what the pivot is"
Quibble, but 100% it has to be dubbed/branded the Big Pivot for all time. Since definitionally there’s not a small pivot, mini-pivot or pivotlet. We were told to expect a Big Pivot and if it turns out to be more like a Course Correction, Added Feature, or Update we reserve the right to hold the Pivot-Promisers to account or at least mock them.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?