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OpenAI
Deepseek
Israel Ceasefire
TikTok Ban
LA Fire
Oscars 2025
H5N1
Trump
Cabinet
Nintendo Switch 2
Trudeau Resigns
Hard Forkcasts 2025
Korea
Biden
House Speaker
Sora
Bitcoin
2028 Election
AGI Timelines
Taylor Swift
Elon/Tesla
Sama Drama
AI Math
Twitter
ACX 2024
One Piece
Music AI Race
Hard Forkasts 2024
AI 2025
AI
Shump
Mario Cannistrà
Plus
Will we get AGI before 2028?
40%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
118
Ṁ1445
Matthew Barnett
Plus
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
NO
2847
Ṁ6895
James Dillard
Plus
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
13%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
796
Ṁ2240
Nathan Young
Plus
When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]
36%
Before 2026
Yes
No
Open options
27%
2026 - 2028 inclusive
Yes
No
Open options
7%
2029 - 2031 inclusive
Yes
No
Open options
5%
2032 - 2034 inclusive
Yes
No
Open options
See 1 more answer
16
Ṁ1000
Austin
Crystal
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
84%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
2765
Ṁ100k
Scott Alexander
Premium
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
44%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
3441
Ṁ11k
Scott Alexander
Plus
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
79%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
452
Ṁ2420
Scott Alexander
Plus
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
65%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
399
Ṁ2805
Nathan Young
Plus
Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2030?
13%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
19
Ṁ1000
Nathan Young
Plus
Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?
31%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
20
Ṁ1000
See more questions:
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