AI

Ṁ1.4k
Will we get AGI before 2028?
19% chance
Ṁ6.9k
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)
NO
Ṁ2.2k
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
14% chance
Ṁ1k
When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]
3%
Before 2026
48%
2026 - 2028 inclusive
17%
2029 - 2031 inclusive
8%
2032 - 2034 inclusive
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Ṁ100k
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
YES
Ṁ21k
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
30% chance
Ṁ2.4k
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
92% chance
Ṁ2.8k
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
48% chance
Ṁ1k
Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2030?
12% chance
Ṁ1k
Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?
35% chance
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