AI

Will we get AGI before 2028?21% chance

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)34% chance

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 210013% chance

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

18%

Before 2026

32%

2026 - 2028 inclusive

12%

2029 - 2031 inclusive

8%

2032 - 2034 inclusive

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Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?22% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?37% chance

#Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?64% chance

#Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?33% chance

#Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2030?17% chance

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?23% chance

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