@Harlan This doesn't reflect a change in my predictions, I just don't think that prediction markets are actually useful for predicting human extinction, and I want to use my mana for other things.

I think the only point of buying and holding YES shares in this market would be to have my opinion be represented, but I can actually just share my opinion for free: I am about 80% confident that AI will wipe out humanity before the year 2100.

How do you even collect on this bet? If humanity is wiped out I don’t think Manifold will be saved

Well that's eliezer's point below, if people decide to treat it as non epistemic not much we can do about it. The hope is that people will treat it as if they could collect so that we get a wisdom of crowds estimate

A lot of people here will be dead by 2100 anyway, so they won’t be able to reap their rewards either way

Withdrawing from this market (as I have the analogous market in 2030) since too many traders have decided to treat it as non-epistemic (trading in a way that reflects money not being worth anything if the world ends, rather than trading beliefs). This is not an evil or unlawful choice, but it means there's no point in watching my net worth fluctuate around my shares here.

@EliezerYudkowsky There's non-epistemic grounds to buy YES as well. In fact. for 2100 in particular, I would argue the non-epistemic trade is to be buying YES at 11%.

See Mira's magisterial treatment of the subject in this very comments section: https://manifold.markets/jdilla/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th#WHfX49qPw7c5MO7SELZR

@EliezerYudkowsky Is this how you still hold on to a high pdoom and tell yourself the crowd is really with you in spite of betting against you?

@TeddyWeverka Although suffering Keynesian Beauty Contest issues, I think these markets decrease the likelihood that the crowd genuinely thinks the P(doom) is tiny

@MichaelWheatley taking profits already?

@f proposed changes to loans mean that some people are looking to deleverage.

@MartinRandall whats the proposed changes?

@f last proposal from dev team was a 2x global max leverage cap. Probably won't happen in that form but still spooking some traders.

What the point of voting, if it resolve yes I will be dead...

@ChristianJacques you could have an AI agent represent your rights here, likely enforced through some smart contract? who knows, maybe the mana helps the good AI’s win the war.

@ChristianJacques https://outsidetheasylum.blog/prediction-markets-are-not-polls

Does "wipe out" imply killing or out-competition?

What if all of humanity voluntarily mind-uploads as in "I, Row-Boat"?

@Snarflak Killing / extinction

@JamesDillard So if AI uplifts all of humanity into the noosphere, this resolves to No?

@Snarflak Not sure what the noosphere is so can’t comment. Will let you know when I see it!

@JamesDillard https://craphound.com/overclocked/Cory_Doctorow_-_Overclocked_-_I_Row-Boat.html 😁

@JamesDillard Only biological humans count? What if all living humans are genetically engineered enough to be considered a separate species?

@MaxMorehead Very much depends upon the specifics

hold on

won't you... die of old age before you get to resolve this question...?

@NathChuananopakul Maybe!