Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?

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predicts NO


If left closed, do you think anyone will remember to resolve this claim in 2040?

I suggest it is reopened with a 2040 close date.

Assuming real and not nominal GDP.

bought Ṁ20 NO from 41% to 28%

@CamillePerrin I think I mean nominal. That would still be a huge jump, right?

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@NathanpmYoung Sure. Assumed the question was a "Are we AGI yet" proxy, so real GDP. But it's legimate as nominal GDP too, however then Yes is a mix of low probability "very good thing" (global productivity revolution) and low probability "very bad thing" (global hyperinflation)

@CamillePerrin How good are we at jduging global real GDP?


predicts NO

@NathanpmYoung I hope not so bad that 20% is a possible but erroneous output? Not my field of expertise, sorry