Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040? | Manifold

Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?

16

67

Ṁ573

Ṁ150

2039

23%

chance

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1M

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predicts NO

If left closed, do you think anyone will remember to resolve this claim in 2040?

I suggest it is reopened with a 2040 close date.

Assuming real and not nominal GDP.

bought Ṁ20 NO from 41% to 28%

@CamillePerrin I think I mean nominal. That would still be a huge jump, right?

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@NathanpmYoung Sure. Assumed the question was a "Are we AGI yet" proxy, so real GDP. But it's legimate as nominal GDP too, however then Yes is a mix of low probability "very good thing" (global productivity revolution) and low probability "very bad thing" (global hyperinflation)

@CamillePerrin How good are we at jduging global real GDP?

Changed

predicts NO

@NathanpmYoung I hope not so bad that 20% is a possible but erroneous output? Not my field of expertise, sorry

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Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 20 years?

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043?

Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 15 years?

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today?

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+5% 1d22% chance

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Will the GDP of the US be greater than 50 trillion dollars in 2030?

GDP questions

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Related questions

Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 20 years?

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040?

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043?

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?

Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 15 years?

Will the total world population peak before the end of 2040?

[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?

Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today?

Will the GDP of the US be greater than 50 trillion dollars in 2030?