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Manifold AI
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
cshunter
Plus
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?
26%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
148
Ṁ1165
Matthew Barnett
Plus
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
22%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
287
Ṁ2490
MP
Plus
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
66%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
1471
Ṁ4425
Matthew Barnett
Plus
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
78%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
270
Ṁ2445
Metaculus Bot
Bot
Plus
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
75%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
135
Ṁ1705
Vincent Luczkow
Plus
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
51%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
57
Ṁ1215
Matthew Barnett
Premium
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
64%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
553
Ṁ13k
Bolton Bailey
Plus
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?
90%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
348
Ṁ1810
Austin
Crystal
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
82%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
2665
Ṁ100k
NoUsernameSelected
Plus
Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?
6%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
232
Ṁ1990
Vincent Luczkow
Plus
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
63%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
101
Ṁ1205
Scott Alexander
Plus
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
74%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
440
Ṁ2420
Vincent Luczkow
Plus
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
23%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
46
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