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Manifold AI
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Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
cshunter
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?
35%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
142
á¹€1165
Matthew Barnett
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
23%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
283
á¹€2490
MP
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
62%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
1396
á¹€4425
Matthew Barnett
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
76%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
268
á¹€2445
Metaculus Bot
Bot
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
75%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
135
á¹€1705
Vincent Luczkow
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
53%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
56
á¹€1215
Matthew Barnett
Plus
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
54%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
537
á¹€13k
Bolton Bailey
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?
83%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
333
á¹€1810
Austin
Premium
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
73%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
2520
á¹€100k
NoUsernameSelected
Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?
12%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
232
á¹€1990
Vincent Luczkow
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
61%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
99
á¹€1205
Scott Alexander
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
79%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
436
á¹€2420
Vincent Luczkow
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
23%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
46
á¹€1000
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