AI Capabilities

Figure Status Update - OpenAI Speech-to-Speech Reasoning

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Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?68% chance

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Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?72% chance

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Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?69% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?50% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

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Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?34% chance

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Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by 2025?36% chance

#IMO Grand Challenge

#Technical AI Timelines

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Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?22% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

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Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?23% chance

#Third Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI

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Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?83% chance

#Technical AI Timelines

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In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?64% chance

#Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

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Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?28% chance

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Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?36% chance