AI Capabilities

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1.2k

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?17% chance

2.5k

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?17% chance

4.4k

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?65% chance

2.4k

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?76% chance

1.7k

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?78% chance

1.2k

Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?51% chance

13k

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?66% chance

1.8k

Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?90% chance

100k

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?84% chance

2k

Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024?NO

1.2k

Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?62% chance

2.4k

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?76% chance

1k

Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?24% chance

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