Basic
261
142k
2026
55%
chance
XTX Markets announces $10m AIMO prize
Google DeepMind announces AlphaGeometry

This market resolves based off the outcomes of two other markets:

If either of these resolve YES, this resolves YES. If both resolve NO, this resolves NO. If either of the linked markets resolves to something other than YES or NO, I will use my best judgement.

Apr 29, 9:01pm: Will AI get at least Bronze on the IMO by 2025? → Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by 2025?

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Does "by 2025" mean "by the start of 2025" or "by the end of 2025"?

bought Ṁ250 YES

@rogs End of 2025, I think.

the thing for these AIMO markets, we need a certified grader to grade the AI

predicts NO

I made two related markets:

When I saw the DeepMind paper, I knew that if I went to Manifold there would be free mana waiting for me on some market and lo and behold.

Spike from deepmind getting in between IMO silver and gold performance on geometry problems

limit order at 30% if someone wants to take it

Real incentive: $10M prize for IMO gold just announced. https://aimoprize.com/

bought Ṁ500 YES from 48% to 49%

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