Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by 2025?
XTX Markets announces $10m AIMO prize
Nov 27
Google DeepMind announces AlphaGeometry
Jan 17

This market resolves based off the outcomes of two other markets:

If either of these resolve YES, this resolves YES. If both resolve NO, this resolves NO. If either of the linked markets resolves to something other than YES or NO, I will use my best judgement.

Apr 29, 9:01pm: Will AI get at least Bronze on the IMO by 2025? → Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by 2025?

Get Ṁ200 play money
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the thing for these AIMO markets, we need a certified grader to grade the AI

predicts NO

I made two related markets:

bought Ṁ200 of NO

When I saw the DeepMind paper, I knew that if I went to Manifold there would be free mana waiting for me on some market and lo and behold.

Spike from deepmind getting in between IMO silver and gold performance on geometry problems

bought Ṁ0 of YES

limit order at 30% if someone wants to take it

Real incentive: $10M prize for IMO gold just announced. https://aimoprize.com/

bought Ṁ500 YES from 48% to 49%

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