Nico’s COVID dashboard

Bet at your own risk but please bet.

Ṁ230
Will the 80,000 hours podcast release an episode about COVID origins by end 2024?
YES
Ṁ1k
[COVID origins] Will "Proximal Origin" be retracted before 2025?
NO
Ṁ1k
Will any other US intelligence agency change their assessment of Covid origins towards a lab origin by the end of 2024?
NO
Ṁ11k
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
29% chance
Ṁ1.1k
Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
31% chance
Ṁ1k
If the COVID lab leak market resolves YES, will it be controversial?
26% chance
Ṁ1k
Will Anthony Fauci or Francis Collins be criminally charged in relation to COVID by 2025?
NO
Ṁ1k
If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?
48% chance
Ṁ1.7k
Will Peter Miller win the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?
YES
Ṁ230
Will a $100k "Rootclaim Challenge" debate btw Peter Miller and Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19 go ahead in 2023?
YES
Ṁ1k
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
36% chance
Ṁ1k
Wide acceptance of Lab Leak hypothesis for COVID only within 3 months of Fauci passing away
5% chance
Ṁ130
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
40% chance
Ṁ1k
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2025?
NO
Ṁ1k
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
1% chance
Ṁ2.6k
Where did COVID-19 come from
0.3%
It does not exist / is not a new virus / 5G / aliens
0.5%
Non-zoonotic origins
53%
Transfer at a wet market
1.4%
Transfer in the wild to a civilian
See 6 more answers
Ṁ132
Will Kristian Andersen or Robert Garry be referred for prosecution by the end of 2023?
NO
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