Nico’s COVID dashboard

Bet at your own risk but please bet.

230

Will the 80,000 hours podcast release an episode about COVID origins by end 2024?YES

1k

[COVID origins] Will "Proximal Origin" be retracted before 2025?NO

1k

Will any other US intelligence agency change their assessment of Covid origins towards a lab origin by the end of 2024?NO

11k

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?26% chance

1.1k

Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?28% chance

1k

If the COVID lab leak market resolves YES, will it be controversial?26% chance

1k

Will Anthony Fauci or Francis Collins be criminally charged in relation to COVID by 2025?NO

1k

If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?48% chance

1.7k

Will Peter Miller win the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?YES

230

Will a $100k "Rootclaim Challenge" debate btw Peter Miller and Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19 go ahead in 2023?YES

1k

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?36% chance

1k

Wide acceptance of Lab Leak hypothesis for COVID only within 3 months of Fauci passing away5% chance

130

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?40% chance

1k

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2025?NO

1k

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?2% chance

2.6k

Where did COVID-19 come from

0.3%

It does not exist / is not a new virus / 5G / aliens

0.5%

Non-zoonotic origins

53%

Transfer at a wet market

1.4%

Transfer in the wild to a civilian

See 6 more answers

133

Will Kristian Andersen or Robert Garry be referred for prosecution by the end of 2023?NO

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