Nico’s COVID dashboard

Bet at your own risk but please bet.

Will the 80,000 hours podcast release an episode about COVID origins by end 2024?YES

#Effective Altruism

[COVID origins] Will "Proximal Origin" be retracted before 2025?4% chance

Will any other US intelligence agency change their assessment of Covid origins towards a lab origin by the end of 2024?50% chance

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?66% chance

Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?20% chance

#Meta-markets on improper resolution

#Meta-markets on controversial resolution

If the COVID lab leak market resolves YES, will it be controversial?16% chance

Will Anthony Fauci or Francis Collins be criminally charged in relation to COVID by 2025?12% chance

If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?23% chance

Will Peter Miller win the "Rootclaim Challenge" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?YES

Will a $100k "Rootclaim Challenge" debate btw Peter Miller and Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19 go ahead in 2023?YES

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?34% chance

Wide acceptance of Lab Leak hypothesis for COVID only within 3 months of Fauci passing away9% chance

#Wuhan Institute of Virology

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?33% chance

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2025?4% chance

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?6% chance

Where did COVID-19 come from

0.1%

It does not exist / is not a new virus / 5G / aliens

0.1%

Non-zoonotic origins

46%

Transfer at a wet market

0.5%

Transfer in the wild to a civilian

See 6 more answers

Will Kristian Andersen or Robert Garry be referred for prosecution by the end of 2023?NO

#New Year's Resolutions 2024